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January 17-19th Plains/MW/Lakes Storm Potential Part II


Powerball

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Yep, not looking good for much of anything other than just plain rain.. Didn't think we'd get much of anything frozen anyway..

The precip is taking its time getting in here so I'm guessing most of the area will be above freezing by the time it arrives. Still think there could be a changeover to snow before it ends but not looking for much.

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Wow, a rare occasion where you're warmer than LAF.

Well to be fair, I installed a thermometer about 15 feet above ground...just to see the difference between it and the one below. Total :weenie: idea. The 33º was the upper level reading. I have 30.8º on the lower one.

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Your dew points are still in the low 20's so don't be surprised to see some evap cooling for the first few hours of precip..

It will be countering the WAA though, so maybe 34 and rain instead of 38 and rain.

Gonna be interesting to see how high we can go. I doubt we make it to 40 but mid to upper 30's looks very attainable.

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It will be countering the WAA though, so maybe 34 and rain instead of 38 and rain.

Gonna be interesting to see how high we can go. I doubt we make it to 40 but mid to upper 30's looks very attainable.

We'll make 40º. We always overachieve in these scenarios.

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updated LOT aviation discussion

PRECIP...SECOND WAVE TO ARRIVE SHORTLY AND WITH THIS IS THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO PTYPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN OUT TO LUNCH FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO...AND TYPICAL TO ANY GUIDANCE...THEY ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF WAA TAKING PLACE. THE FORECAST FROM ROUGHLY 21Z TO 01Z REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AND MAY BE CHANGED AS CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY CHANGE. PRESENT THINKING IS THAT THE SURFACE LAYERS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST NEAR FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF THE SECOND WAVE. THIS WILL MEAN THAT IT WILL START WITH SNOW...THAT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND THEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF AN ICE PELLET AND EVENTUALLY MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW BEYOND...VS FREEZING RAIN...FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING. THAT SAID...STILL CANT DISCOUNT THE FZRA MENTION UNTIL WE MOVE COMPLETELY AOA FREEZING. SURFACE LAYERS ARE WARMING QUICKLY AS IKK TO PNT ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 30S...AND AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-80 ARE NEAR FREEZING. THIS PUSH WILL CONTINUE NORTH AND SHOULD CROSS ORD AND MDW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD SWITCH BACK OVER TO SNOW PRIOR TO THE END.

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