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January 17-19th Plains/MW/Lakes Storm Potential Part II


Powerball

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updated (again) LOT aviation

DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...

MODERATE CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE

WITH THE PRESENT SCENARIO AND IS STILL /AS OF THE LATEST 12 NAM

AND 11Z RUC/ USELESS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP TRENDS AS THEY DONT

INITIALIZE WELL WITH WHAT IS ALREADY ONGOING. DID UPDATE THE CURRENT

TRENDS AND TEMPO AS OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE DROPPING TO IFR VISBY

WITH LOW END MVFR TO HIGH END IFR CIGS. TIMING OUT THE FIRST

WAVE...EXPECT ORD AND MDW TO DROP BY 1430 WITH THE HEAVIEST OF

SNOW...AND DO EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING THE HEAVY

BANDS...BACK TO A SOLID MVFR CIG THO VISBYS MAY RETAIN THEIR MID

TO HIGH END MVFR RANGE FOR SOME TIME.

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All we managed to get out of this is 1.8 inches. Outside of the 30-45 minute heavy band that moved through just before sunrise, the snow was mostly light. At the back edge of the precip shield we've been getting snow grains/pellets.

Update: Forgot to mention there is no drifting at all. Despite the wind this morning during the heavy snow, the snow depth is very uniform.

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Looked like it was almost impossible to miss the fat band of at least decent light to low end mod snow that was backed up from just on my doorstep back to Madison and down to almost the Illinois border... But par for the course it just disintegrates or takes a left turn north leaving me wih pixie..

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Some light snow starting here in GRR. I am hoping this one isn't too damaging for the MI crew, especially SE MI now that there is a good snowpack going there.

OT: Alek, replying to what you said a few threads back, I am enjoying college. I just got back from a semester in Budapest. Pretty city, awesome trip but man that place is a snow hell, along with most of Europe. 47.50 North latitude and a snow climate worse than DC :axe: I did get to see the "earth shaking" record breaking snowstorms in Belgium that made me spend 2 unwanted days there. Not gonna lie, when 5 inches of snow shuts down a country it makes me cringe. I do know they never get snow there...

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