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January 17-19th Plains/MW/Lakes Storm Potential Part II


Powerball

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The temp is only in the low 20s. The good precip will be long gone by the time the warmer air arrives later today.

Yeah and a couple things of note when looking at the meso analysis from spc with respect to MSLP, those being that the system is still diving southeast and hasn't changed the direction, and the high over E Ontario is strengthening. Both of these things could end up being factors

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Yeah and a couple things of note when looking at the meso analysis from spc with respect to MSLP, those being that the system is still diving southeast and hasn't changed the direction, and the high over E Ontario is strengthening. Both of these things could end up being factors

Returns pushing into north central illinois a lot stronger than I expected

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A band of very heavy snow from east of Cedar Rapids(much lighter here now) down through Iowa City to Washington. That yellow on radar must be 2 inches per hour. I wish this band had been fully developed like this when it moved through here.

Update: Now seeing some orange show up on radar. I wonder if that might be approaching 3 inches per hour down there.

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Yeah and a couple things of note when looking at the meso analysis from spc with respect to MSLP, those being that the system is still diving southeast and hasn't changed the direction, and the high over E Ontario is strengthening. Both of these things could end up being factors

Those factors shouldn't have any impact on the overall forecast.

EVerything that's happening now is as expected.

It's tomorrow that we'll have to keep a closer eye on, and the synoptic setup will be considerably different.

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Morning AFDs

DTX still looks to be questioning the depth/strength of the warmth due to current snowpack, also mentioning of icing concerns.

GRR also has precip concerns with a solid snow event to the north.

IWX certainly talking up the ice potential and concerns of models overdoing surface temps.

GFS still does show some accumulating snow on the backside (and the Thursday system has been creeping north on the models). While this event is not the Monday snowfall they were touting several days ago, its already looking to be not nearly as bad as warm/rain fears were the last 2 days.

My opinion on state of the snowpack. True, a glaze of ice protects a snowpack. Now, it would do nothing in a situation like we had Dec 30/31, however, this could be different, as it wont be nearly as warm. Also, while I do see it getting sloppy for sure tomorrow, I honestly dont think we lose that much snowdepth. Maybe lose an inch of DEPTH total, but it will be compaction more than anything, so the snowpack *MAY* become more firm once things freeze over. Also, once the snow freezes back up, although it wont have that pristine look it does now, it will look much better than it does during the height of sloppiness Tuesday.

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A band of very heavy snow from east of Cedar Rapids(much lighter here now) down through Iowa City to Washington. That yellow on radar must be 2 inches per hour. I wish this band had been fully developed like this when it moved through here.

Update: Now seeing some orange show up on radar. I wonder if that might be approaching 3 inches per hour down there.

So far reports have been all snow with that band. Will be interested to see what happens when it gets to the office, since we're already 1/2SM and SN.

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Snowing heavily here in Cedar Rapids... and it is fairly windy as well. My snowboards may be useless with this wind.

Ive had that a few times this winter; you always do. You just do your best. In a calm snowfall, snowboards are awesome. In a wind-driven one, they are horrible. Say you get about a 6" snowfall but its very drifty and your actual snowboard is swept clean. Do you call it a trace? :lol: I think not.

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NAM blasts that area with >0.50". Unfortunately, it looks like I'm pretty much done and everything will be east of me for the duration.

Spotters in the Quad Cities area are beginning to report some sleet and freezing rain.

suckage, looked like it could have been a serious overperformer out that way.

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yeah it kind of goes nuts right over that area, might have to watch p-type trends and such, you'd think warning criteria snows might come into play.

I think the ratios and mixing will help to keep final totals down in the advisory range, but it's going to be an ugly mess on the roads.

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