dssbss Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Still planning on a decent snow/ice event here in Berks county about 10 miles south of 78 on route 61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NWS may end up looking awfully foolish if they end up upgrading to WSW or ICW late tonight for most of the area. I realize that in the technical info they release that is read by mets and others like us they are covering themselves by leaving the door open but to the general public it will look like a blown forecast. The 06Z GFS is showing the sfc never getting above frreezing even at EWR. I wouldn't be so quick to say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 These events usually come in 2 forms...the ones where you go snow to rain very fast, sometimes not even seeing more than maybe 1-2 hours of snow if that....the other is a prolonged period of snow, sometimes 4-6 hours where you can see as much as 4-5 inches, then maybe 2-3 hours of sleet/freezing rain and then rain....this one I think relies tremendously on when the precipitation gets in, if it arrives by 04-05Z I would not be surprised if we saw 2-4 inches of snow in the NYC area, if it doesnt start til 07-08Z it will be much harder. thank you for your response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Any chance Mt Holly could be right with the 12z NAM?? Definitely looks like more snow then ice here and even snow might be sleet and not ZR.Live at the southern most end of BGM and the most NW part of Mt Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z Tuesday....looks nasty north of I-78 in PA and Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 freezing line cuts right through Berks county....what time is that for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 freezing line cuts right through Berks county....what time is that for? 7 am...look at the time stamps at the bottom of the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 freezing line cuts right through Berks county....what time is that for? 12z=7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z=7am thanks...didn't think it would be that warm that in Berks that early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The 06Z GFS is showing the sfc never getting above frreezing even at EWR. I wouldn't be so quick to say that. What I meant is that the event has largely been down played by the local mets the last few days and if 1-3" of snow and a trace of ice ends up as 4-8" of snow and 0.25" - 0.50" of ice the general public will think the forecast was a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What I meant is that the event has largely been down played by the local mets the last few days and if 1-3" of snow and a trace of ice ends up as 4-8" of snow and 0.25" - 0.50" of ice the general public will think the forecast was a bust. Oh, I thought you were saying the reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 thanks...didn't think it would be that warm that in Berks that early. We'll see if that happens, like others have talked about with the 6z GFS, it stays colder longer in RDG... its probably going to be somewhere in the 14z-16z range if you blend the models Here were the 6z temps from earlier...definetely a much colder scenario..... READING KRDG GFS MOS GUIDANCE 1/17/2011 0600 UTC 12z Tue: 25 15z Tue: 30 18z Tue: 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 HRRR has the precip arriving earlier than all the models are predicting. FWIW this model nailed the timing of the back edge of the precip for last week's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 didn't 850s on the NAM surge north compared to 6Z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 HRRR has the precip arriving earlier than all the models are predicting. FWIW this model nailed the timing of the back edge of the precip for last week's storm. Would an earlier start mean more snow before a changeover? @ Parsley - What are you thinking for down this way, seems were on the fence (as usual) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 HRRR has the precip arriving earlier than all the models are predicting. FWIW this model nailed the timing of the back edge of the precip for last week's storm. One of the mets in the New England thread mentioned how this is an event where "west is best" in more ways than one...the dry air nosing from the high could cause precip to arrive later the more east you are...you can sort of see how the snow advances further north in the western areas....we saw this even in the 2/6 storm where parts of Warren county saw more snow that NYC did since they were a bit less influenced by the confluence and suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Would an earlier start mean more snow before a changeover? I believe so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Would an earlier start mean more snow before a changeover It depends. I believe a met here last night stated how the earlier snow could be meaning a faster advance of WAA which means an earlier changeover. So I'm not sure if this necessarily true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Interestingly enough, my point and click forecast in Morris County now calls for a high of 36 which has been increased. It also basically indicates a smooth transistion to rain with no ice around 10am. Yet, the AFD continues to indicate the heavy snow/ice potential for NJ. Not sure what they are thinking here when most of the guidance has been indicating a colder scenario. Upton is indicating almost 0.25" of ice one town over to the east of me. I live right on the border of Morris and Passaic Counties. Sounds like their is some differnces in thinking between the two offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Here are 12Z NAM Bufkit snowfall and freezing rain outputs respectively for selected locations: KHPN: 1.8", .01" KSWF: 3.2", .46" KPOU: 2.5", .26" KMMU: 3.9", .11" KJFK: 1.5", .00" KLGA: 1.6", .02" KTEB: 2.6", .11" KEWR: 2.7", .00" RUTG: 2.8", .04" KTTN: 3.9", .07" KPNE: 3.8", .03" KABE: 3.4", .25" KRDG: 4.1", .25" KBDR: 1.2", .11" KISP: 0.3", .00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 at 24 hours, 12Z GFS 2M zero and 850 mb zero line is right through KJFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The 4" snow and 0.25" ZR for RDG seems consistent with my Wxsim module forecast and the NWS at this time Of course my current temp is 5 degrees lower than my Wxsim had for today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z GFS is colder than 12z NAM in SE PA at the surface. 32 line barely past Philly by 7 AM and is from LNS to TTN at 10 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Do u have one for KLNS? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 at 27 hours.. 850 mb zero line through rockland and southern westchester counties.. 2M zero line right through Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 slightly colder than 6z and much colder than the NAM Considering how poorly the GFS preformed with the last system, im a bit hesitant on buying what its selling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So compared to 12 hours ago, does this look potentially colder and icy for NYC/Western LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Here are 12Z NAM Bufkit snowfall and freezing rain outputs respectively for selected locations: KHPN: 1.8", .01" KSWF: 3.2", .46" KPOU: 2.5", .26" KMMU: 3.9", .11" KJFK: 1.5", .00" KLGA: 1.6", .02" KTEB: 2.6", .11" KEWR: 2.7", .00" RUTG: 2.8", .04" KTTN: 3.9", .07" KPNE: 3.8", .03" KABE: 3.4", .25" KRDG: 4.1", .25" KBDR: 1.2", .11" KISP: 0.3", .00" The 12z nam came in much wetter than the 00z run here at KSWF. The 00z had .87 now the 12z has 1.42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 slightly colder than 6z and much colder than the NAM Considering how poorly the GFS preformed with the last system, im a bit hesitant on buying what its selling The GFS is usually bad with these sort of events, generally it underdoes the WAA which results in it being too cold and often starting the precip too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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