Guest Patrick Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like it is mostly climatology based probability. Not a bad idea... HPC says the ice is way N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I am very surprised that Bergen County, NJ is not included in at least a winter weather advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like it is mostly climatology based probability. Not a bad idea... and a lot like the last 2 NAM runs, which is another good idea since if anything is going to be right, it would be that model. The 6z gfs seems very suspect. I know mt holly saw the 6z gfs cause they talked about it in their updated afd, yet i didnt see WDrag totally bite on it. I mean, the 6z gfs has ice still going over all of nj thru 21z. scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Upton this a.m.: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...DEPENDING ON CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE IN A GIVEN ZONE. I am very surprised that Bergen County, NJ is not included in at least a winter weather advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 yea, you can't mess with zr. i mean, even if it is just a trace. it is so dangerous. you have to issue something. that is a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Thank you. I would have thought they would have done this already though. Upton this a.m.: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...DEPENDING ON CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE IN A GIVEN ZONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I guess it is easy to discount the GFS, especially since it basically ignored the last two storms in the short range until they were underway (in a manner of speaking). However, initialization seems fine this go around. Still, that amount of significant icing around these areas is rare, and I believe Snowgoose mentioned this as well: It is far more likely that we get a quick shot of snow following by quick transition to rain, rather than significant icing. That being said, this is not a typical winter, or a typical decade, or progged to be a typical January. I can't imagine what I would do if people's lives and property depended on my words in this situation, especially in the heavily populated EWR - HPN areas. and a lot like the last 2 NAM runs, which is another good idea since if anything is going to be right, it would be that model. The 6z gfs seems very suspect. I know mt holly saw the 6z gfs cause they talked about it in their updated afd, yet i didnt see WDrag totally bite on it. I mean, the 6z gfs has ice still going over all of nj thru 21z. scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I have noticed NNE winds have been picking up and the temp here has actually fallen since sun up Currently Cloudy Temp 19.5 RH 71% DP 11.6 Wind NNE 2-4mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I guess it is easy to discount the GFS, especially since it basically ignored the last two storms in the short range until they were underway (in a manner of speaking). However, initialization seems fine this go around. Still, that amount of significant icing around these areas is rare, and I believe Snowgoose mentioned this as well: It is far more likely that we get a quick shot of snow following by quick transition to rain, rather than significant icing. That being said, this is not a typical winter, or a typical decade, or progged to be a typical January. I can't imagine what I would do if people's lives and property depended on my words in this situation, especially in the heavily populated EWR - HPN areas. The only place north and east of 40N/80W where it is more difficult to see a significant icing event is probably the south shore of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Figured some of you might want to read what Millersville's Eric Horst says, he's usually very spot-on with winter weather events. A very cold day is on tap as clouds increase over top a large, strong area of high pressure parked over northern New England. Two low pressures systems, one moving in from the Midwest and the other moving up the east coast, will then converge on the region tonight through Tuesday night. The low pressure system along the east coast is the main threat, and with cold air damming in place over most of central and eastern PA (thanks to the New England high pressure) we will have a long duration of frozen/freezing precipitation tonight and Tuesday. Light snow should develop this evening, with a coating to an inch or two possible, before changing to sleet then freezing rain. Here in Lancaster (and points to our west and north), I expect freezing rain to be the primary threat with a 1/4" or more of ice accumulation possible...which could certainly make for significant problems Tuesday. Areas to our south and east will likely change over to plan rain by mid to late morning Tuesday, whereas colder valley areas farther north and west could very well remain at or below freezing all day Tuesday. By late Tuesday afternoon, the steady precipitation will end; so I expect just some lingering freezing drizzle or plain drizzle Tuesday night with temperatures hovering within a couple degrees of freezing. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~cws/SpecialWeatherDiscussion.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The 6z GFS paints a rather ominous scenario for HPN. 850's go above +4 while the surface is still below freezing http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KHPN&model=gfs&time=2011011706&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like NYC starts off as snow/sleet and then quickly change to rain on the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z nam certainly looks colder at 18 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 BUFKIT for White Plains has 5.5 inches per 6Z GFS and 3.7 inches per NAM EDIT: GFS has it as all snow, BTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Southern Poconos could get some pretty decent icing if this run of the NAM is right. Looks like a quick 1-3" thump and then transition to several hrs of zr north of 78 in Eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM has the 2M 32 line going no further north than KPOU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 BUFKIT for White Plains has 5.5 inches per 6Z GFS and 3.7 inches per NAM EDIT: GFS has it as all snow, BTW Yeah HPN is going to be cutting it close..theres still a chance there all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z nam certainly looks colder at 18 hrs Compared to....???? I don't see it being colder, if anything it is a hair warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah HPN is going to be cutting it close..theres still a chance there all frozen yep.. very close.. 6Z NAM has snow through 11Z, sleet from 11-12Z.. then maybe a few hours of freezing rain with temps right near freezing... then rain with a high temp of 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If the 12z NAM is right, From I-78 on north is going to get an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What is the best way to see the predicted surface temperatures from the NAM? It is not on any of the default panels on the NCEP NAM graphics. I live about 2 miles from the NWS Andover observation station (K12N) so if there is a way to get predictions for that point it would be great. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What is the best way to see the predicted surface temperatures from the NAM? It is not on any of the default panels on the NCEP NAM graphics. I live about 2 miles from the NWS Andover observation station (K12N) so if there is a way to get predictions for that point it would be great. Thanks. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12znam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 A half inch of ice is quite difficult to come by unless temps are in the 20's, and ice storm warning criteria is half inch for most of the area north and west of the philly burbs so I'm not suprised to see advisories atm but the scary place to watch is the philly burbs which in my opinion could easily see up to 0.25" of ice = ice storm warning criteria. All ice is extremely dangerous and 0.10" of ice is more than enough to cause roadways to ice over but not enough to cause power outages. My main concern though, is that the models have continued to trend colder and may not be taking into account the modest snow pack still on the ground which will be added to slightly before the warm air alloft arrives. If temps are even 1-2 degrees colder than forecasted, it will make a tremendous difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hey guys I'm not going to be able to spend much time in this thread today so please use the report button if you see offending posts. Back to the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 we have had these 2-4 inch sleet events before, is there anything similar to the setups a few years back where the call was for snow but we got 25 and sleet. Could we not even see snow at all with this storm except briefly at the start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 From Mt. Holly AFD - They are definitly leaving the door open for this ending up as a major event. SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ***WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT*** LOW PROB WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AN UPGRADE TO A WINTER WARNING FOR NW NJ OR NE PA EITHER FOR 5-8 INCHES OF WET SNOW OR NEAR ONE HALF INCH GLAZE. NO MATTER...COMBINATION OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TOMORROW MORNING AND THE ADVISORY IS POSTED. ADJUSTMENTS IN THIS ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN NEW JERSEY AND NE PA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL VELOCITY IN THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THE 00Z/06Z NAM AND NOW THE 06Z GFS ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW EVEN WITH A SLIVER OF AIR JUST ABOVE 0C NEAR 850 MB... THIS BASED ON FGEN FORCING CAUSING A PROGRESSIVE NWD MOVING BANDING PATTERN THAT COULD HAVE AN HR OR 2 OF 1 INCH/HR HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY JUST N OF PHL TO NRN NJ AND NE PA. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I95 IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ TUESDAY AFTER THE PRIMARY LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MY FEELING IS THAT THIS WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW IN NE PA AND NW NJ AND WET SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ELSEWHERE WITH A NARROW SLIVER OF .2-.4 GLAZE NEAR KABE-KMMU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 we have had these 2-4 inch sleet events before, is there anything similar to the setups a few years back where the call was for snow but we got 25 and sleet. Could we not even see snow at all with this storm except briefly at the start? Go back and read previous posts and you will find your info....you could also try www.nws.noaa.gov for an accurate local forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Upton's snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 we have had these 2-4 inch sleet events before, is there anything similar to the setups a few years back where the call was for snow but we got 25 and sleet. Could we not even see snow at all with this storm except briefly at the start? These events usually come in 2 forms...the ones where you go snow to rain very fast, sometimes not even seeing more than maybe 1-2 hours of snow if that....the other is a prolonged period of snow, sometimes 4-6 hours where you can see as much as 4-5 inches, then maybe 2-3 hours of sleet/freezing rain and then rain....this one I think relies tremendously on when the precipitation gets in, if it arrives by 04-05Z I would not be surprised if we saw 2-4 inches of snow in the NYC area, if it doesnt start til 07-08Z it will be much harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think it will be colder than indicated on the surface. Just going from past experiences, the cold air was very stubborn to leave. Also a big heads up with the cold air today and especially the very low DPs are key going into tonight and tomorrow. DPs around here are in the lower single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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