sferic Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'd be stunned if NYC/Western LI has the majority frozen.....and temps not above 34-35. I can't believe there is still hope as per NAM.. Gotten spoiled with Western LI/NYC being snowy and no rain to speak of this past month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GGEM has moderate/heavy snow turning to a period of ice C NJ Northward. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html h31. h34... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 CMC is picking up on CAD now...previous runs it was basically snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 ARW and the NMM may agree with the NAM (source hasn't updated fully yet) as they try to get the mid level low going around the Outer Banks region compared to the GFS which is around the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'd be stunned if NYC/Western LI has the majority frozen.....and temps not above 34-35. I can't believe there is still hope as per NAM.. Gotten spoiled with Western LI/NYC being snowy and no rain to speak of this past month Thats an extreme scenario now...I backed off my 3-6 inch front end blast 2 days ago and was ready to go to almost nothing, maybe 1 inch at EWR or NYC, the latest runs give some hope of 1-3, and if a few heavier bands can form somebody on the coast could go past that but honestly its going to be tough to call the SN/PL amounts on this til we see the radar tomorrow afternoon, if its exhibiting large WAA precipitation we can start the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NMM looks really interesting for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NMM looks really interesting for NYC. ARW Loop Both agree more with the NAM than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 ARW Loop Both agree more with the NAM than the GFS. ARW is slightly warm than the NMM and the low is more west on the ARW. Anyway, both of them lean more towards the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Based on this I'd say Upton is not going to be issuing any headlines for the 5 boroughs or LI....already showing a changeover at JFK by 10Z...that said, I'd be surprised if we don't see VIS below 2SM at some point between 04Z-10Z FM180400 08009KT 4SM -SN BKN015 FM180700 08009KT 2SM -SN OVC008 FM181000 07011KT 2SM -SNPLRA OVC008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Awesome dude...you've been waiting for a good event. Haven't you been mini-screwed the past few coastals? Thanks! I hope it verifies. Not really too excited about it though because of the chance for ice here too but it does not look like a change to rain is coming until late Tuesday if that at all. I also hope my post-restriction is lifted soon so I can post obs as I need to in the obs forum. I am more interested in the threat at the end of the week as the GEM is a monster bomb that gets me and everyone else slammed. I know that is off topic for this thread but still trying to conserve posts. What does the 0z GFS say and what do the pro mets on this board think of this threat so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 00Z RGEM showing a 3" liquid max just south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 00Z RGEM showing a 3" liquid max just south of NYC. Tuesday looks ugly, from the interior mid-Atlantic region into interior western and central southern New England. Even I-95 from NYC on northward will be very close. 12z runs will be crucial, but it may ultimately come down to nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Tuesday looks ugly, from the interior mid-Atlantic region into interior western and central southern New England. Even I-95 from NYC on northward will be very close. 12z runs will be crucial, but it may ultimately come down to nowcasting. In my view, NYC and even just inland will have minimal snow and ice accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 In my view, NYC and even just inland will have minimal snow and ice accumulation. any particular reasoning or thought process behind that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 00Z RGEM showing a 3" liquid max just south of NYC. So much for the "less than 0.5" of ran" someone was trying to tell me about two days ago. This will be a snowpack killer somewhere. Hard snow or not, cold rain or ice and rain, someone is going to lose the majority of what snow they have on the ground. Let the bashing comments begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So much for the "less than 0.5" of ran" someone was trying to tell me about two days ago. This will be a snowpack killer somewhere. Hard snow or not, cold rain or ice and rain, someone is going to lose the majority of what snow they have on the ground. Let the bashing comments begin This is the time period where the models love spitting out crackpot QPF....they will begin trending down probably starting at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 any particular reasoning or thought process behind that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What's amazing is how the seasonal trend is just putting it's stamp on this winter so far. Does this track look familiar to anybody? Sheesh.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFEAST_0z/f45.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What's amazing is how the seasonal trend is just putting it's stamp on this winter so far. Does this track look familiar to anybody? Sheesh.. http://www.meteo.psu...EAST_0z/f45.gif The NW suburbs are so close to a dynamic wet snow/ice bomb on the NAM, I doubt we get that much but it's going to be a close call. You'd think we'd have a chance with that track, and the 0z ECM/0z NAM did trend colder, so I guess we'll see what Tuesday morning brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What's amazing is how the seasonal trend is just putting it's stamp on this winter so far. Does this track look familiar to anybody? Sheesh.. http://www.meteo.psu...EAST_0z/f45.gif Excluding the temperature then yeah, very. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 LOL at the hi-res models tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 02/13/93 is a strong analog right now...that had somewhat of a prolonged PL/ZR period on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 LOL at the hi-res models tonight. I wonder what the CRAS shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I wonder what the CRAS shows Hilarious... Someone defined it on urban dictionary.. 2. CRASalicious [/url]Those special situations where the CRAS model solution so totally dominates over the "other" models run at the national centers. A CRASalicious forecast actually gets mentioned in NWS forecast discussions. Weather Geek 1: "Man, the Eta model appears to have really botched this forecast!" Weather Geek 2: "Yeah, but feast your eyes on *this* CRASalicious solution!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 RGEM The RGEM is quite rondiculous up here at KLEB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 6 Z NAM @ 30 hrs 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 not sure how much stock I put into 18/6z runs, but through 30hr, precip shield is more expansive towards the NW Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Total QPF thru 36 hrs and at least in the ABE area a good chunk of that looks to be frozen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 For what it's worth, surface temps are down on this run compared to 0z. Philly for example hit 1.9C at 39 hours, while it now only gets to 1.1C at 33 hours (both storm peak) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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