Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow, I really wish I could post the images here from Wright-Weather but they have a winter-radar image of what the NAM portrays in 3 hour increments and it has the ENTIRE storm as snow for ABE and all of Northern NJ north of Rt. 78 and West of Rt. 287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Honestly, Wright-Weather is amazing. NOAA, CNN, The Weather Channel and many of the networks use them. ah nice i didn't know they had that. I go to coolwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Mt Holly put out a new briefing package this afternoon: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_SNOWDEPTH_48HR.gif 7.5-10" of snow on that for me if verfies (the tounge that comes down right over the Pocs!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i could be wrong about this, but wasnt it much colder out of front of the v-day storm? That storm was a lot colder than what this will be. NYC has temps in the teens and 20's throughout the whole sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i could be wrong about this, but wasnt it much colder out of front of the v-day storm? 850 temps were/are near -3 to -5C in both when the precip arrives, surface was colder...the difference is this event the surface low until this run was not strong enough nor the high positioned well enough to get that ageostrophic component going where you might be able to hold the NE wind on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_SNOWDEPTH_48HR.gif 7.5-10" of snow on that for me if verfies (the tounge that comes down right over the Pocs!) Awesome dude...you've been waiting for a good event. Haven't you been mini-screwed the past few coastals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 http://wxcaster4.com...WDEPTH_48HR.gif 7.5-10" of snow on that for me if verfies (the tounge that comes down right over the Pocs!) That is a snow depth map. There is already this much now: http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_SNOWDEPTH_06HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Awesome dude...you've been waiting for a good event. Haven't you been mini-screwed the past few coastals? Lol, yes he has. As well as most everyone west of the Delaware River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I just looked at the surface winds as well. At about the time the surface is supposed to warm above freezing, surface winds actually shift to the NNE in NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The coast continues to need a very early initiation to the snow arriving....look at the 00Z NAM at hour 30 and see how little it generates over the Metro...now look at both links below, look at the depiction at 12Z on 12/14/03 and then look at the radar at the same time....we need THAT to occur again...notice though how much better the high location was in 2003 vs. this event...its not 1,000 mile difference but its around 100-150...that makes more difference than you would imagine. http://www.meteo.psu...2003/us1214.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 From BUFKIT. PHL and ILG get about an inch of snow, RDG+MDT get about 2 inches while ABE gets 5. ABE starts as snow has 3 hrs of FR and then goes back to snow between 7 and 10AM. ABE is very close to an all snow event. With a near freezing profile. RDG+MDT are hurt by a shallow warm layer at 950. Without that they would be close to all snow also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The coast continues to need a very early initiation to the snow arriving....look at the 00Z NAM at hour 30 and see how little it generates over the Metro...now look at both links below, look at the depiction at 12Z on 12/14/03 and then look at the radar at the same time....we need THAT to occur again...notice though how much better the high location was in 2003 vs. this event...its not 1,000 mile difference but its around 100-150...that makes more difference than you would imagine. http://www.meteo.psu...2003/us1214.php H5 looked much stronger during that storm so I assume the WAA precip would be as well. This storm looks like a disorganized mess at H5....or maybe Im just used to seeing mega vorts associated with KU's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM 3-hr intervals KSMQ: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KSMQ.txt KABE: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KABE.txt KNYC: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KNYC.txt KMMU: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KMMu.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 H5 looked much stronger during that storm so I assume the WAA precip would be as well. This storm looks like a disorganized mess at H5....or maybe Im just used to seeing mega vorts associated with KU's Thats why I mentioned yesterday a SW flow would be better, because the 500 dynamics would have been stronger early enough for the high to still help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM 3-hr intervals KSMQ: http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KSMQ.txt KABE: http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KABE.txt KNYC: http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KNYC.txt KMMU: http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KMMu.txt HPN is at 33-34 when the heaviest QPF arrives. While the mid and lower levels are torching, if the surface is a few degrees colder than modeled...watch out Cutting it very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM 3-hr intervals KSMQ: http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KSMQ.txt KABE: http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KABE.txt KNYC: http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KNYC.txt KMMU: http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KMMu.txt does it update past 30 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 does it update past 30 hrs? Scroll down. You will see the rest at the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 does it update past 30 hrs? scroll down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Here is your 00Z MOS NAM for JFK from 12Z -18Z 12Z temp 31 wind 07014 15Z temp 35 wind 06012 18Z temp 38 wind 02019 At LGA the temp from 15Z-18Z gowes from 37 to 40 with a 030 wind...as Analog said earlier, something is wrong, either the wind direction or the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 scroll down thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It is already snowing everywhere except CT and Western LI on this run by 30 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 ok so then for KPNE, it would be 0.06" as snow, 0.14" as ZR (850s are cold enough but from 875 down to 975 it's >0) then after that is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 By 36 hrs it already has the 0 850 line up to Rt. 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 By 36 hrs it already has the 0 850 line up to Rt. 80. Freezing line is right over NYC at hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What is amazing to me is that we went from a mostly western dominant low, to a low that is now dominant off the coast of NJ, with almost complete transfer of energy from the western low, which is now much further to the south in Indiana and Ohio, transferring energy to off the coast of NJ. Will this be enough to make this a snow event NW of the cities? It is getting really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 stays below 32 at the surface up here at KSWF with 0.88 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KSWF.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 30hrs out and we're worlds apart between the GFS and NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 30hrs out and we're worlds apart between the GFS and NAM.. The NAM has been right all year, no reason to think anything will be different here...this is like the 06-07 winter, or maybe it was 07-08 where the NAM was right on virtually every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The NAM is making me nervous; if it get any colder NYC may be in trouble. Still it does needs to be about 5 degrees colder, I wait for the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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