goldstar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 verbatim.... at KABE 0.28" falls as snow, 0.57" falls as ZR, and 0.20" falls as rain. That's pretty nasty if it materializes as modeled on tonight's 0z NAM. for Philly, it's not much better than previous runs wrt to temps. only 0.05" as snow, then the rest (1.11") as rain. The surface warms up from 28.2° to 34.9° between 6z and 12z. So there could be some IP/ZR in that period, but nothing crippling imo. .57 ZR Holy S**T Bad for business, very bad for business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 .57 ZR Holy S**T Bad for business, very bad for business! naturally that's not .57" of ice. That just means that 0.57" falls during a 6-hr period where 850mb temps are >0 and 2m temps are <0 or ~0. Some of the period would be snow, some ZR, and some just rain. But still it could be bad up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 KMMU is very close to a majority snow event as well with the warmest layer being +.8 through 39 hrs. Just need a little more cooling from somewhere. Very close. Did anyone do soundings from MMU & EWR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Doesn't get much closer than that. Barely snow at KAVP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 naturally that's not .57" of ice. That just means that 0.57" falls during a 6-hr period where 850mb temps are >0 and 2m temps are <0 or ~0. Some of the period would be snow, some ZR, and some just rain. But still it could be bad up there. With the models trending colder for the last few runs, it makes me wonder if it won't end up more frozen then wet, in whatever combination it may be. Will be great to track the next 48 - 72 hours. Everyone stay safe out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 verbatim.... at KABE 0.28" falls as snow, 0.57" falls as ZR, and 0.20" falls as rain. That's pretty nasty if it materializes as modeled on tonight's 0z NAM. for Philly, it's not much better than previous runs wrt to temps. only 0.05" as snow, then the rest (1.11") as rain. The surface warms up from 28.2° to 34.9° between 6z and 12z. So there could be some IP/ZR in that period, but nothing crippling imo. looks like abe is about .2 snow...then .35 as ice...than the last half inch is rain, still a mess. Do you look at the 3hr 40km soundings or the 6 hr sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 0z Nam sounding for NYC At 36 hours, NYC is 31.8 degrees with 0.21 QPF. Temperature only rises to 34 during the storm. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Still...I'm not throwing all my eggs into this basket. I would like to see some kind of continuity given it's well noted tendency to be too cold with thermal profiles in these types of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hasn't the GFS already been this cold all along? Still...I'm not throwing all my eggs into this basket. I would like to see some kind of continuity given it's well noted tendency to be too cold with thermal profiles in these types of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 looks like abe is about .2 snow...then .35 as ice...than the last half inch is rain, still a mess. Do you look at the 3hr 40km soundings or the 6 hr sounding? tombo, do you have 3-hourly data for the 0z NAM, or know where I can find it? imo 3-hr soundings are vital for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 And actually this is something new with this storm for the NAM. It was much warmer on previous runs. Still...I'm not throwing all my eggs into this basket. I would like to see some kind of continuity given it's well noted tendency to be too cold with thermal profiles in these types of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Has anyone seen the thermal profile of KMPO? Can someone update that for the 0z GFS when it's out? I am post-restricted right now and it's a pretty big hindrance. 0z NAM is a more snow then ice profile which is great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I have it. What do you need? tombo, do you have 3-hourly data for the 0z NAM, or know where I can find it? imo 3-hr soundings are vital for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 tombo, do you have 3-hourly data for the 0z NAM, or know where I can find it? imo 3-hr soundings are vital for this event where do u get your soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 KMPO gets to +.2 and +.1 at two levels at 42 hrs. and only to +.9 at 45 hrs. So, mostly snow there. Has anyone seen the thermal profile of KMPO? Can someone update that for the 0z GFS when it's out? I am post-restricted right now and it's a pretty big hindrance. 0z NAM is a more snow then ice profile which is great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Has anyone seen the thermal profile of KMPO? Can someone update that for the 0z GFS when it's out? I am post-restricted right now and it's a pretty big hindrance. 0z NAM is a more snow then ice profile which is great news. MPO's 850s stay below freezing throughout the event, but just barely. Edit: can't get data to post nicely. just check here: http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kmpo.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wright-Weather. where do u get your soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I have the three hour soundings. Refer to my previous post. MPO's 850s stay below freezing throughout the evnt, but just barely. 850mb Temp ©: -13.4 -11.9 -10.6 -9.8 -6.3 -4.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -1.4 -3.3 -7.1 -7.2 -5.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I have it. What do you need? PNE and NXX please Edit: nvm found it myself Double edit: Didn't realize it was a pay site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 According to the soundings Snow88 used, KPTW has .43 QPF while temps are below freezing. Though it's 31.7 degrees for the bulk of that, so a very close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 looks like abe is about .2 snow...then .35 as ice...than the last half inch is rain, still a mess. Do you look at the 3hr 40km soundings or the 6 hr sounding? You mean 2" snow, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 You mean 2" snow, right? Yes, he is giving liquid equivalent. It would be 2" of snow if it is 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Latest Upton TAF has JFK starting to snow at 04Z tomorrow night, ahead of where the NAM is showing anything so they seem to be hedging on the typical overrunning/WAA early start time on the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Warmer faster by 12z Tuesday..... here was the 12z VS. NOW (new 00z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wright-Weather. ah nice i didn't know they had that. I go to coolwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Does JFK get significant ZR based on the 00Z run before a change to cold rain and 34F ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yes, he is giving liquid equivalent. It would be 2" of snow if it is 10:1 ratios. Thanks AR, should be an interesting one to track thru here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 You mean 2" snow, right? .2 qpf as snow, so yes 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If you compare the features at 42 hours on the 00Z NAM to 12-18Z on 2/14/07 it looks about the same. i could be wrong about this, but wasnt it much colder out of front of the v-day storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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