LVblizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 gets to only +.9 at any level by 1pm on Tuesday and is still below freezing at the surface in NW NJ (Andover K12N). This is VERY close to a major snow storm in NW NJ now. Based on one run of the NAM? I'd wait till the other models come out, especially the hi-res and mesoscale models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like sleet to me even a bit inland given the mid level warm air advection. There's a clear warm nose even at 850-925mb and that's enough for sleet. At 36 hours 850 temps are above zero for much of the area away from the real "interior"...which has a borderline snow sounding still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 In the "nooks and crannies" of the poconos, yes. Not on the wide open mountain tops. Also, the large open "valley" areas are prone to air temperatures "mixing", causing warming too. It is the valley areas where the cold air can settle in and the warm air doesn't mix down in right away that hold on the ice the longest. In any event I might still have a good shot at ice...I'm a little lower than the city of Hazleton itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Even at 45 hrs, it is very close to a major snow storm. The warmest it gets is +1.2 at the 900mb level and +.6 at the surface at K12N (Andover). This is a warning type of event now for NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like sleet to me even a bit inland given the mid level warm air advection. There's a clear warm nose even at 850-925mb and that's enough for sleet. At 36 hours 850 temps are above zero for much of the area away from the real "interior"...which has a borderline snow sounding still. This storm is starting to remind me a bit of VD '07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 All snow for AVP on the NAM based on the maps, will probably have to check soundings to confirm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Definetely appears to be a more "exciting" event for those inland from the coast 50-100 miles or greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yes.. it is customized to your location with closest climate data and advection sites upstream etc. Plus the program "learns" from comparing actual (weather station) vs. forecast to try and hone in on any bias with forecasts. Paul When you purchase the program it is customized to your individual location. Lat Long elevation climate etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The one thing that more snow means is less of an ice threat. That might be the saving grace from a major ice storm. I would think with more snow the transition zone between snow and plain rain would be rather narrow and probably right over 287 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Definetely appears to be a more "exciting" event for those inland from the coast 50-100 miles or greater. For us it appears there's even quite a bit of snow/ice. Though I'm not adept at telling how much of it overall is frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This storm is starting to remind me a bit of VD '07. If you compare the features at 42 hours on the 00Z NAM to 12-18Z on 2/14/07 it looks about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The point is that the GFS has already been showing this run after run and the WRF-ARW has already shown this as well. It was the NAM that was the hold-out, well- no more. Based on one run of the NAM? I'd wait till the other models come out, especially the hi-res and mesoscale models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 gets to only +.9 at any level by 1pm on Tuesday and is still below freezing at the surface in NW NJ (Andover K12N). This is VERY close to a major snow storm in NW NJ now. QPF way up from earler NAM runs. May be going back the wet idea in a typical overdone NAM way. Notice the incredible 700VV. Dynamic cooling. With that and that heavy precip I would think this is heavy wet snow vs ice in NW NJ and NE PA. That is just a comment verbatim the 0z NAM. Freezing rain tends to do its most damage at lighter precip rates over an extended period of time. To hard and to fast and it has a hard time building up on surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I ran Andover and all layers are below freezing until 10am and it looks like about .5 has already fallen by then. Ground temps remain below freezing until 1pm at Andover. Looks like sleet to me even a bit inland given the mid level warm air advection. There's a clear warm nose even at 850-925mb and that's enough for sleet. At 36 hours 850 temps are above zero for much of the area away from the real "interior"...which has a borderline snow sounding still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 For us it appears there's even quite a bit of snow/ice. Though I'm not adept at telling how much of it overall is frozen. Yeah, its a tough call but I'd assume based on the models that before 9am on Tuesday, it could be a real mess. Whether it snow, sleet or frz. rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I ran Andover and all layers are below freezing until 10am and it looks like about .5 has already fallen by then. Ground temps remain below freezing until 1pm at Andover. Keep in mind WAA is usually underdone by the models, hence why some of these events produce snow well earlier than forecast but also why they often also switch over to ZR/PL further NW than modeled and sometimes sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM now has NW NJ as all snow through 10 am on Tuesday with about 5 inches of accumulation by that time. MUCH colder this run! Ive seen many times we have had sleet and low to mid 20s, Id caution on taking it as snow verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What I think is going on is that the storm to the west keeps weakening and the storm to our southeast keeps strengthening. I still think there will be a mix but I think a Winter Storm Watch is in order for Northern NJ at this point. Keep in mind WAA is usually underdone by the models, hence why some of these events produce snow well earlier than forecast but also why they often also switch over to ZR/PL further NW than modeled and sometimes sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 All snow for AVP on the NAM based on the maps, will probably have to check soundings to confirm though. Looks like ice/rain from 42 onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like sleet to me even a bit inland given the mid level warm air advection. There's a clear warm nose even at 850-925mb and that's enough for sleet. At 36 hours 850 temps are above zero for much of the area away from the real "interior"...which has a borderline snow sounding still. through hr 42 kfwn only has 1 layer (900) at .2. not saying nam is right but that could easily be all snow through hr 42 based on nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This storm is starting to remind me a bit of VD '07. I was without power 5 days and physically unable to crack the ice to get my car out of the garage for 4 data here in MDT. I hope this isn't the same storm here, quite a few people died stuck in ice. NAM looks better out this way, in terms of holding off zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Just saying what the soundings show and they show all layers below freezing in NW NJ until 10am and by that time about .5 has fallen. Ive seen many times we have had sleet and low to mid 20s, Id caution on taking it as snow verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Usually I hold onto the last shred of hope here in sw nassau Cnty, (5 miles from JFK). This time around I'm conceeding, maybe an inch of snow then a litlle sleet then rain....onto later in the week when it could get exciting yet once again.. This event tomm night into late tues night is not going to be for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Usually I hold onto the last shred of hope here in sw nassau Cnty, (5 miles from JFK). This time around I'm conceeding, maybe an inch of snow then a litlle sleet then rain....onto later in the week when it could get exciting yet once again.. This event tomm night into late tues night is not going to be for us. it was never supposed to be for us (basically south/east of 202). but with the NAM coming around to the GFS/ARW/NMM i think hops should be up, not down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 through hr 42 kfwn only has 1 layer (900) at .2. not saying nam is right but that could easily be all snow through hr 42 based on nam Fair enough. That's probably a snow sounding. Important, as you alluded to, to take this run with a grain of salt. The NAM is notorious for being too cold in these types of mid level WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow, this threat has really materialized/ I spent the weekend out of town and all of sudden BAM we get another threat. What a great winter for tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looking at the intense 700mb vertical velocities over NW NJ and the fact that almost all layers remain less than +1, and the position of that the low off the coast, does this not scream of a heavy wet snow event with temperatures only rising after the snow slows down? Just wondering what the mets think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow, this threat has really materialized/ I spent the weekend out of town and all of sudden BAM we get another threat. What a great winter for tracking! Did anyone do soundings from MMU & EWR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 verbatim.... at KABE 0.28" falls as snow, 0.57" falls as ZR, and 0.20" falls as rain. That's pretty nasty if it materializes as modeled on tonight's 0z NAM. for Philly, it's not much better than previous runs wrt to temps. only 0.05" as snow, then the rest (1.11") as rain. The surface warms up from 28.2° to 34.9° between 6z and 12z. So there could be some IP/ZR in that period, but nothing crippling imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.