hudsonvalley21 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You might get a bit more snow than I do up by HPN, although I do live at 350' elevation which may increase the icing here relative to other parts of Southern Westchester. I think 2-4" is a solid forecast as well as the .1-.25" ice; the radar looks fairly juicy and is moving quickly towards our area. This is a good sign, as we need the precipitation to march northward quickly before the mid-levels warm too much and we are stuck with IP/ZR. We're definitely guaranteed to start with some decent snows and then flip to ice for a bit. We'll see how it plays out, I'm staying up for a while to follow it. 23.5/13 here... Still holding at 19 here at KSWF. Temp.has held there for the last 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Anyone can confirm in KPHL ...reporting light snow as of 9 PM hour? confirmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I have moderate snow still here in brookhaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Watched Jeff Smith on Ch 7 before and He has Wintry Precip starting by Midnight and staying Frozen until at least 9 Am in My area and Noon a little further North.. That is 9 to 12 hrs of Frozen Precip yet He has only 1 to 3 in Accumulation. The only way that happens is if it changes to Freezing Rain fairy Quickly which a 6 hr period of Freezing Rain will cause Major Problems.. I think this storm still has a few Surprises in store..24 degrees at 6:30 will be interesting to see if Temp drops much more before onset of Precip.. Remember, 1" of snow is ~0.1" liquid and 1" of sleet is ~0.4" liquid, so 2" of sleet/snow could easily be 0.5" liquid, although you're absolutely right that if much of that is freezing rain, we're in for a world of hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sl Remember, 1" of snow is ~0.1" liquid and 2" of sleet is ~0.5" liquid, so 3" of sleet/snow could easily be 0.6" liquid, although you're absolutely right that if much of that is freezing rain, we're in for a world of hurt. Sleet is royally useless form of precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 How much snowcover (if any) will Central Park have after this event? The park reported 4" remaining today. I'm guessing we'll see about 2" before a changeover... but by Wednesday, there should still be 2-3" of glacial snowpack left. The temps should stay cold enough (sub 35) for the storm that I don't think we'll see much melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sl Sleet is royally useless form of precipitation Have to disagree - loved VD 2007, as we got 6-7" sleet, if I recall correctly - was pretty cool. Maybe not quite as good as snow, but still way better than rain (I also made an error in my bulk density comment, as sleet is usually 2-3:1 ratio of sleet to liquid, not the 4:1 I mentioned). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I have moderate snow still here in brookhaven. Of course you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'd consider it even if we get 2 inches and lose it afterwards leaving us what we have now on western Long Island in preparation for thursday night's blast (hopefully). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 New upton map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I have a hard time imagining losing most or all of the snowpack here. We have about 8-9" of snow on the ground on my lawn, which I imagine is at least 1.25-1.50" of liquid equivalent (it's somewhat compacted), so if we get ~0.3" as frozen precip followed by another ~0.9" of liquid at 35-40F, that would make about 0.9" liquid on top of about 1.6" frozen and I think the frozen could absorb most of the liquid - whatever we have after Wednesday afternoon will truly be cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I highly doubt we see 4" of snow here with the mid levels warming up so quickly. .4" of ice seems more likely here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 How much snowcover (if any) will Central Park have after this event? The park reported 4" remaining today. I'm guessing we'll see about 2" before a changeover... but by Wednesday, there should still be 2-3" of glacial snowpack left. The temps should stay cold enough (sub 35) for the storm that I don't think we'll see much melting. I've been updating the snow depth at Central Park and tomorrow will be the 24th day with at least an inch on the ground during the day...If we get 2" of snow and ice it should bring the snow depth to 5-6" before the rain comes...usually 3" of snow can absorbed 1" of rain...That will leave 2-3" of ice/snow left...Wednesday should see more melting and by Thursday night there should be 1-2" left before the next event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 They must have seen my map! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That has 1.0" for me and it has already gone over to rain after a dusting. Seems like those totals are going to bust high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 If the 00Z NAM were right (which it isnt) we'd get more snow tonight in CPK than the next storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Mod snow now with coating already. Temp down 0.6 to 24.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Have to disagree - loved VD 2007, as we got 6-7" sleet, if I recall correctly - was pretty cool. Maybe not quite as good as snow, but still way better than rain (I also made an error in my bulk density comment, as sleet is usually 2-3:1 ratio of sleet to liquid, not the 4:1 I mentioned). sleet is virtually impossible to plow effectively or shovel, it has no use at all but to be a pain in the ass. Kingwill...I dont think Somerset County is going to have freezing precip until 9 AM, thats seems very late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 DC already flipped to ZR......these storms always change over pretty quickly in my experience, i am betting snow changes over here by midnight (PHL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 DC already flipped to ZR......these storms always change over pretty quickly in my experience, i am betting snow changes over here by midnight (PHL) Was DC ever supposed to be snow? I thought they were all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Was DC ever supposed to be snow? I thought they were all rain i know they were under a WWA, for what that's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I highly doubt we see 4" of snow here with the mid levels warming up so quickly. .4" of ice seems more likely here. Yeah, that snow map looks a little bullish to me. Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see 4-5 before it flips, but I'll bet it's more like 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 10PM obs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i know they were under a WWA, for what that's worth. DC's forecast Overnight: Freezing rain and sleet before 1am, then rain or freezing rain. Low around 31. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Total nighttime sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Never supposed to be any snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Starting to flurry here in Avenel, NJ...25 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 really surging north BTW this thread should be closed, OBS time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 it may be true, but that forecast is as of 919pm, when it had already flipped. i know it started as snow there DC's forecast Overnight: Freezing rain and sleet before 1am, then rain or freezing rain. Low around 31. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Total nighttime sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Never supposed to be any snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 From the 9:20pm update of Mt Holly's AFD: THE SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES IS FORCING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED. IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CROSS THE FORECAST AREAS BETWEEN 0800 UTC AND 1400 UTC TUESDAY. AT THAT TIME...AN ISOTHERMAL COLUMN MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. RIGHT NOW...THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK GOOD...AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE PHASE CHANGE. BASED ON THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL WARM WEDGE...THE CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOKS ON TRACK. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CHANGE OCCURRING IN THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 0600 UTC AND 0900 UTC. AFTER THIS...THE WARM WEDGE SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY RISING IN MOST PLACES...AND THIS SHOULD BE THE TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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