dssbss Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Oh well I-78 will be a mess again, I hate these Ice events. They always seems to last longer than predicted. more OT cant complain I guess Is Penn Dot thinking a mess here in Berks? Are they brining the roads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think he meant the ice issues would be more severe in the Lehigh Valley than where he's at. Yeah, I kind of ordered my phrases incorrectly I guess. I wasn't disagreeing. I guess that is why a few other people posted with odd replies to my post. haha. I'm sure the forecast would show more ice north of his location, especially in the LV. My side note was that my gut is telling me that a significant ice event probably will not occur, although the potential certainly exists. The internet doesn't always deliver my thoughts properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So...things are pretty quiet here. Is this going to be a non-event or is the discussion slow because metro areas will be affected in a minor way NYC isn't getting another significant snowstorm. Why would there be discussion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Is Penn Dot thinking a mess here in Berks? Are they brining the roads? I sure hope they have the sense to brine the roads for this one. I'll be out driving on 33 and 78 tomorrow. I'll let you know when I get home if they are brined. I think as long as they are brined and they keep salting them, they should be able to keep the highways just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If anyone out there has a contact with OKX, when you are on their home page and under Top News Of The Day, the title " WINTER PRECIP POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY" the link is not working. The other topics under that one work ok. Maybe other folks can try it out too. I sent a storm report with comments to them about this. OKX is aware of that link not working. They hope to have it fixed soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 OKX is aware of that link not working. They hope to have it fixed soon. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NYC isn't getting another significant snowstorm. Why would there be discussion... The reason there's not much discussion is that the vast majority of posters in this sub-forum are from the 5 Boroughs and LI, places that aren't likely to see much icing due to their proximity to the ocean. I'd personally like to have a bit more commentary on the Tuesday threat, as I live at 350' elevation in Westchester County and am expecting a messy situation with my work potentially being cancelled. I think people are also exhausted from the near constant tracking since the Boxing Day Blizzard, and of course the fact it's a long weekend. We're a bit spoiled with expecting every event to be a major snowstorm, I'm just happy to see how this one plays out and how long we hold onto snow/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I am hoping that no one gets any significant icing, is there any chance of that happening given the current models? The reason there's not much discussion is that the vast majority of posters in this sub-forum are from the 5 Boroughs and LI, places that aren't likely to see much icing due to their proximity to the ocean. I'd personally like to have a bit more commentary on the Tuesday threat, as I live at 350' elevation in Westchester County and am expecting a messy situation with my work potentially being cancelled. I think people are also exhausted from the near constant tracking since the Boxing Day Blizzard, and of course the fact it's a long weekend. We're a bit spoiled with expecting every event to be a major snowstorm, I'm just happy to see how this one plays out and how long we hold onto snow/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The reason there's not much discussion is that the vast majority of posters in this sub-forum are from the 5 Boroughs and LI, places that aren't likely to see much icing due to their proximity to the ocean. I'd personally like to have a bit more commentary on the Tuesday threat, as I live at 350' elevation in Westchester County and am expecting a messy situation with my work potentially being cancelled. I think people are also exhausted from the near constant tracking since the Boxing Day Blizzard, and of course the fact it's a long weekend. We're a bit spoiled with expecting every event to be a major snowstorm, I'm just happy to see how this one plays out and how long we hold onto snow/ice. Interesting the difference in weather in this region...I only got a dusting on 12/26...this has the potential to be the biggest wintery event I've seen thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I am hoping that no one gets any significant icing, is there any chance of that happening given the current models? Nobody? probably not, a very isolated patch of W/NW NJ and isolated valleys in NW CT and SE NY? yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I am hoping that no one gets any significant icing, is there any chance of that happening given the current models? There won't be much icing where you are in Queens since the easterly flow will change NYC over to rain pretty quickly. Also, the urban heat island effect means you'll radiate less after sundown tomorrow night, which will make it easier to climb above freezing by Tuesday morning with warm air advection occurring in the mid-levels and surface winds coming from the ocean. However, there's a significant risk of icing for the Hudson Valley, NW NJ, and the Poconos. With the cold airmass in place right now (-14C 850s), deep snowpack and winds staying more E/NE instead of SE due to the coastal, there could be an icing threat. Upton NWS is predicting about 2" of snow here in Westchester with .1" ice for Southern Westchester and .25" ice for Northern Westchester. So this is looking nasty, not a major icestorm but could be potentially dangerous on the roadways. I wouldn't be shocked if some schools cancel Tuesday. Interesting the difference in weather in this region...I only got a dusting on 12/26...this has the potential to be the biggest wintery event I've seen thus far. It's pretty unfortunate that most of the events this winter have had a narrow band of heavy QPF....we have a house at 1500' in the Poconos, and my mom says there's only about 4" of snow on the ground. Here in Westchester just 10 miles north of the City, we have a solid foot snowpack, mostly from the 14.5" that fell with the Miller B but also including 4" from the Norlun trough and a bit of the 13" that fell on Boxing Day. It's been a great winter on the coast but mediocre to poor in the interior despite persistently cold temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Nobody? probably not, a very isolated patch of W/NW NJ and isolated valleys in NW CT and SE NY? yes. And the Lehigh Valley and the Western Philly Burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Adam, maybe you know the answer to this question... I thought i remembered reading from the one NWS forecaster, about extra data being taken at 18 Z today... do you know if that was ever done? And if so we could see some different results in the modeling tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z JMA pushing the 540 down and with low level cold air its going to be hard to push out the cold. Like the old saying says it snow where it wants to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The 18Z GFS shows quite a bit of precip falling as upper air temps go above freezing and 10m temps remain below freezing. Hr 42, 850s are climbing: Surface still cold: Hr 48, 850's warmer, surface temps still holding low, although starting to climb. Keep in mind, this precip falls up to 6 hrs BEFORE the 0C line reaches this point: So, GFS shows quite a large area of frozen precip potential. And then we have the NAM which of course only shows .1-.25" QPF for most of the frozen precip areas, which is still a problem if it is ice. I would say, as far as QPF is concerned, splitting the difference between the high GFS's amounts and the low NAM's amounts is a safe bet. Therefore, the threat for travel-hindering snow to mix to ice exists for quite a large area in PA, W&NW NJ, and inland areas of NY. Higher elevation in an event like this will probably not mean more snow, but probably less ice due to the warm air moving in at upper levels before lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Now there is a definitive statement if I have ever seen one. I love someone who takes a stand on a position. I mean what the heck are you trying to say? LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Adam, maybe you know the answer to this question... I thought i remembered reading from the one NWS forecaster, about extra data being taken at 18 Z today... do you know if that was ever done? And if so we could see some different results in the modeling tonight? They launched extra balloons for the 18z model runs, so that data has already been in the models. The only thing it will affect for the 0z runs is a slightly better first guess field, but I doubt it will make a meaningful difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 SREFs looking much wetter. 0.50 QPF just west of 81 corridor. 1.00 QPF PHL-NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah. I really have a gut feeling that this will turn out to be largely a non-event, or somehow go over to plain rain without much ice issue. However at the same time, I feel this has more potential to be a significant ice storm than we have seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Higher elevation in an event like this will probably not mean more snow, but probably less ice due to the warm air moving in at upper levels before lower levels. Just for the record, in all my time here, I've known this not to be the case. Usually the Wyoming/Lackawanna Valleys went over to plain rain hours before the Poconos did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 SREFs looking much wetter. 0.50 QPF just west of 81 corridor. 1.00 QPF PHL-NYC. They're a little bit quicker to warm up the interior above freezing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 0z NAM at 30 hours has moderate snow for much of the area. Huge change from 18z, lots more QPF and colder 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i feel like i have seen this setup many times before, and it always flips to liquid very early on for the major cities, especially with the high in that position.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 LMAO. Everyone hating on me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow, what a mess in the PHL and NYC northwest suburbs at 12z on the NAM. Plenty of QPF with 850's at or below 0C. I'm sure surface temps. at that time will be below freezing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM now has NW NJ as all snow through 10 am on Tuesday with about 5 inches of accumulation by that time. MUCH colder this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Moderate-heavy snow about 30 miles NW of I-95 at 36 hours, Lehigh Valley has about 3" of snow, PHL sees probably close to that amount before changing over to ice/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Just for the record, in all my time here, I've known this not to be the case. Usually the Wyoming/Lackawanna Valleys went over to plain rain hours before the Poconos did. In the "nooks and crannies" of the poconos, yes. Not on the wide open mountain tops. Also, the large open "valley" areas are prone to air temperatures "mixing", causing warming too. It is the valley areas where the cold air can settle in and the warm air doesn't mix down in right away that hold on the ice the longest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 gets to only +.9 at any level by 1pm on Tuesday and is still below freezing at the surface in NW NJ (Andover K12N). This is VERY close to a major snow storm in NW NJ now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hi Carmen It gets the NAM/GFS for my lat/long but more importantly it uses my wx station data plus upstream advection data to calculate temps etc. QPF is a combo of GFS and NAM. Paul Unfortunately it is only an IMBY program but would expect the ABE area to be worse.... Paul - just curious. How does it identify your IMBY? Do you enter in lat/long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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