goldstar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Where is the strong chance it will stay subfreezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Where is the strong chance it will stay subfreezing? Lets see, a large part of the Hudson Valley, a lot of NNJ, NWNJ, NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like LAMP guidance went haywire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like LAMP guidance went haywire. I get yesterday's 22Z run, not today's run. Is that what you are getting as well? Edit: Found the 22Z data: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/DF.anf/DC.lampgfs/cy.22.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks nasty for Scranton. It does look nasty, but in situations like this I remember the Pocono Plateau staying ice much longer than the surrounding valleys--to answer a previous poster's question about elevation. I think scranton-wilkes goes above freezing rather quickly tomorrow. I could be wrong, or wishcasting because I know i have to drive into work at 9am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Still big qpf though. 1 inch over N NJ on the GFS and 1.5 inches on the NAM. Either way, it better get above freezing. Not as much QPF as the NAM. How do the 2M teps look on the GFS? The 18Z NAM is quite warm but the end result is more freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 21z ruc has .54 inches of ice for KMMU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 A good example would be to take a ride tomorrow from I-80 west from stroudsburg to the blakeslee exit and see where the ice stops and starts....someone brave enough that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Back to GFS, this is much wetter N&W for the areas that have a chance to stay frozen longest. 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Western Morris Co. soundings on GFS also keep all frozen, or as close as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Still big qpf though. 1 inch over N NJ on the GFS and 1.5 inches on the NAM. Either way, it better get above freezing. These are always such tricky forecast situations. Timing temp advection is difficult and when it means getting above freezing or not to avoid significant snow or ice it is even more delicate. I would think if the higher qpf values are realized it could mean one of two things. Stronger warm air advection and quicker rise above freezing at all levels expect for perhaps parts of Warren Sussex, NW Morris & NW Passaic counties. If could also mean a dynamically cooled atmosphere and prolonged heavy wet snow or sleet. Pressed to give numbers for our area I would say 3-5" locally 6" N&W part of area with ~0.2-0.4" ice with 0.5" N&W areas again. But again it is as always a hour by hour forecast as we watch the freezing line progress or perhaps not progress. Regardless much of NNJ and eastern PA will be messy in the morning. How far into midday and afternoon is another question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Since the next viable snow threat for NYC/LI is the Thursday night/ Friday timeframe, I'll take any scenario for tonight/tomorrow's storm which least impedes our snowpack and leaves us with a solid foundation in which to add to later on this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Since the next viable snow threat for NYC/LI is the Thursday night/ Friday timeframe, I'll take any scenario for tonight/tomorrow's storm which least impedes our snowpack and leaves us with a solid foundation in which to add to later on this week. If we can stay in the mid 30s or so, we probably keep a good amount of it. If we get above 40, we probably lose most of it. Very cold rain is usually absorbed into the snow and doesn't cause it to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Watched Jeff Smith on Ch 7 before and He has Wintry Precip starting by Midnight and staying Frozen until at least 9 Am in My area and Noon a little further North.. That is 9 to 12 hrs of Frozen Precip yet He has only 1 to 3 in Accumulation. The only way that happens is if it changes to Freezing Rain fairy Quickly which a 6 hr period of Freezing Rain will cause Major Problems.. I think this storm still has a few Surprises in store..24 degrees at 6:30 will be interesting to see if Temp drops much more before onset of Precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The "colder" GFS (18z run) brings temperatures at or above 32 at PTW, RDG, UKT and ABE between 15z-18z. AVP climbs to 32, at or just after 18z. PHL hits 32 just after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If we can stay in the mid 30s or so, we probably keep a good amount of it. If we get above 40, we probably lose most of it. Very cold rain is usually absorbed into the snow and doesn't cause it to melt. I'll take mid 30's as long as JFK doesn't all of a sudden shoot up to 51 degrees with that snow eating fog . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Watched Jeff Smith on Ch 7 before and He has Wintry Precip starting by Midnight and staying Frozen until at least 9 Am in My area and Noon a little further North.. That is 9 to 12 hrs of Frozen Precip yet He has only 1 to 3 in Accumulation. The only way that happens is if it changes to Freezing Rain fairy Quickly which a 6 hr period of Freezing Rain will cause Major Problems.. I think this storm still has a few Surprises in store..24 degrees at 6:30 will be interesting to see if Temp drops much more before onset of Precip.. I've seen Brooklyn in the past go from high single digits to upper 30's in a 12 hour period, amazing what a warm flow off the ocean can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm just hoping I can see things get whitened up before midnight around NYC/LI..anyone think that area will see the white stuff by midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hello all Here is the 18z run of the Wxsim module with the NAM/GFS incorporated. Still very consistent with a little more snow forecast then NWS but similar timings and impact overall...here is the rundown Light Snow by 11pm Temp at 22.7 Mod Snow by midnight Temp at 23.1 Heavy Snow at 3am Temp at 24.9 Snow to IP mix around 5am (Total Snow accumulation 4 to 5" before changeover) Heavy IP/ZR mix at 6am Temp 27.2 ZR thru 12noon - temp at 32.0 at noon (Total ZR 0.65") Currently here 22.0 DP 12.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hello all Here is the 18z run of the Wxsim module with the NAM/GFS incorporated. Still very consistent with a little more snow forecast then NWS but similar timings and impact overall...here is the rundown Light Snow by 11pm Temp at 22.7 Mod Snow by midnight Temp at 23.1 Heavy Snow at 3am Temp at 24.9 Snow to IP mix around 5am (Total Snow accumulation 4 to 5" before changeover) Heavy IP/ZR mix at 6am Temp 27.2 ZR thru 12noon - temp at 32.0 at noon (Total ZR 0.65") Currently here 22.0 DP 12.1 If that much ZR occurred, wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hello all Here is the 18z run of the Wxsim module with the NAM/GFS incorporated. Still very consistent with a little more snow forecast then NWS but similar timings and impact overall...here is the rundown Light Snow by 11pm Temp at 22.7 Mod Snow by midnight Temp at 23.1 Heavy Snow at 3am Temp at 24.9 Snow to IP mix around 5am (Total Snow accumulation 4 to 5" before changeover) Heavy IP/ZR mix at 6am Temp 27.2 ZR thru 12noon - temp at 32.0 at noon (Total ZR 0.65") Currently here 22.0 DP 12.1 is that only for your area? Can you run it for KHPN? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 is that only for your area? Can you run it for KHPN? Thanks in advance It's only for his area. I'm curious about what it has for the late week storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm noticing that the RUC and HRRR are warming up the mid-levels earlier but holding onto the cold at the surface. That means less snow and more ice, which would be a pretty big disaster especially in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 If we can stay in the mid 30s or so, we probably keep a good amount of it. If we get above 40, we probably lose most of it. Very cold rain is usually absorbed into the snow and doesn't cause it to melt. The snowpack here is about 14-15" , which is 11" of relatively soft snow over 3 or 4 inches of ice. The main question in my mind is how many inches of ice (i.e., hard snow...not frozen rain) are left on the ground when it eventually freezes up after the storm. This might be a little frustrating for you because you may survive the rain tomorrow only to see the pack decimated while waiting for the cold air to seep in on Wednesday. The areas that can get back to freezing for a few hours Wednesday night will do much better than the areas that don't (NYC probably wont...parts of LI may or may not and inland is looking good). Tomorrow may pull some surprises (the definition of surprise for this part of LI tomorow being anything better than a light snowfall followed by a day of pounding rain and 38 - 40). If there is a surprise, I think it would be in the form of more sleet than anyone is expecting (maybe even a few wet snowflakes mixed with the rain when you least expect it). This is for the north shore but it's a fairly low probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Some things where pondering here tonight, Temp / dew pt spread is 15 degrees here, so that's a lot of dry air still in place and wet bulbs are in the lower 20s. LAMP numbers don't put newark above freezing until about 17Z on Tuesday, our thinking here is a coating to an inch or so in newark metro then sleet and freezing rain before going over to non freezing rain by 1pm tomorrow afternoon. Things many are trying to warm things up much too fast in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm noticing that the RUC and HRRR are warming up the mid-levels earlier but holding onto the cold at the surface. That means less snow and more ice, which would be a pretty big disaster especially in the Poconos. In the latest radar loops. The eastern NC area is filling in and the movment is due north (b-line to the Poccnos). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 For all you snow pack freaks, you can stop worrying because anyone north of the M/D line will have a glacier come Thursday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 For all you snow pack freaks, you can stop worrying because anyone north of the M/D line will have a glacier come Thursday AM. Yeah I think there will certainly be some refreezing. Jeez, these kids get 2 big storms and they think the snow will last forever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 For all you snow pack freaks, you can stop worrying because anyone north of the M/D line will have a glacier come Thursday AM. Perhaps west of NYC but not so for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah I think there will certainly be some refreezing. Jeez, these kids get 2 big storms and they think the snow will last forever... The snow is going to last a long time this winter...I still have a foot on the ground, am expecting 2-4" then icing tomorrow, and then there's the overrunning event Thursday night that may bring 6-10" to NYC metro. I've rarely seen such a persistent snowpack here but this is indeed an unusual winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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