LVblizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Here's the AmericanWx WRF's total snow forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Can we have some actual details?? "Wow" doesn't cut it Its not like the Euro...go on to NCEP and compare the two models runs. The wow is in reference to the fact that the NAM was already one of the warm outliners and at this point youd expect the models to converge on a solution...not diverge from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Can we have some actual details?? "Wow" doesn't cut it 850's at 7 AM are generally PVD to just north of AVP. Surface 32 is NYC to UKT to DCA (general rough line). Get your skates on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Mt Holly and CTP are like the GFS and NAM; completely opposite reactions after the 12z run. Mt Holly bumped up north/west totals while CTP drastically cut its east totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 prob about 2 inches of snow from ttn-nyc...then over to slop....nw areas look good for decent icing event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 237 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-180400- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.110118T0600Z-110118T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0003.110118T0300Z-110118T2100Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON 237 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND THEN POSSIBLY ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OF GLAZE. * TIMING: SNOW BEGINS BETWEEN 1000 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 700 AM AND 1000 AM...THEN CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AND DIFFICULT TUESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Nam is a tad colder than 12z at 21 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think you may be disappointed... low level cold is pretty easy to scour out for the coastal plain. I've learned to never rely on the strength of antecedent cold in these situations. Yes, but this cold just really moved in last night. That's a lot different than cold that's been here for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Only question is, being at a higher elevation, does it get warmer faster? I checked soundings in the Hazleton area and it seems we warm up faster at the surface and become more likely to go non-frozen quicker. Re-asking since it got lost in the school stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Re-asking since it got lost in the school stuff... Dude, relax with the school stuff. Seriously, it's been done with in this thread, a new thread has been created just let it go, geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Re-asking since it got lost in the school stuff... I guess the vague (and probably wrong) answer would be to convert your elevation to millibars and then see what the temp is in that profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Dude, relax with the school stuff. Seriously, it's been done with in this thread, a new thread has been created just let it go, geez. I was re-asking a previous question about elevation. Geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Just got back from the hardware store and most peeps up here are preparing for some significant icing. Rock Salt = soldout. Calcium Chloride = soldout. Potassium Chloride = soldout. Water Softerner Salt = In Stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If only we could have some wind with the icing...really knock out the power...everyone turn up your heat tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Who knew WAA could make everyone so bitchy? As a former moderator, I implore you guys - cut the crap and give the guys (who donate their time to this board) a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Too bad there couldn't be a strong high in place to keep the cold air going for the coast. I envision having some light snow for an hour or two, and then the coastal front rushes my temp up 10 degrees in an hour and the remainder is 36F rain. Hopefully we don't lose too much snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Who knew WAA could make everyone so bitchy? As a former moderator, I implore you guys - cut the crap and give the guys (who donate their time to this board) a break. Seriously. The last three pages of this thread need more analysis and less bickering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM coming in warmer still..... wow I don't think it's quite so simple. The northward extend of the 0 degree line does not tell the whole story. NW of I-95 there's a very loose gradient at 850mb (moreso than 12z). In fact the 850mb low center appears slightly stronger and situated further east this run. Both these factors leave open the possibility that strong UVVs overcome a narrow warm layer and produce an extended period of frozen. And we also get less southerly component to the low level flow. Warmest layer probably just below 850mb. Soundings will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 850's crash back sw all the way to sw ct as dynamic cooling takes over, impressive stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Seriously. The last three pages of this thread need more analysis and less bickering. Agreeed. Stick to the weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Philly office definitely increased their snowfall predictions for the WSWarning areas. Don't know where to find the previous one, but I know it didn't have anyone over 4" of snow and now much of the WSWarning areas are in a 4-7" swath of snow. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/StormTotalSnow/index.php NYC office doesn't look like their snowfall map changed much (just came out also). Interesting that their max is 3.5", so continuity appears to be lacking, as there are 6-7" areas in Sussex County adjacent to 3-4" areas in Orange County: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Interesting, the point and click forecast for Ramsey has been changed to a high of 36 vs 33 yet the ice accumulation has been changed to 0.2-0.4" instead of 0.1-0.3". So in other words, they increased the ice amounts slightly even though they increased the daytime highs. This makes sense considering the proximity to the coast. To me that indicates Upton is going to upgrade to warnings in the current watch areas and advisories east of 287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Too bad there couldn't be a strong high in place to keep the cold air going for the coast. I envision having some light snow for an hour or two, and then the coastal front rushes my temp up 10 degrees in an hour and the remainder is 36F rain. Hopefully we don't lose too much snowcover. If the NAM is correct, you'd lose all of the snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Their appears to be some dissagreement between upton and mt. holly in terms of whats going to ultimatly happen. The other thing that makes me scratch my head is the new snowfall map calls for 3.5" of snow for Morristown, yet the WSW says 3-6" of snow. Nowhere in my county according to the snowfall map does it say warning criteria snowfall. Also, it says little to no ice accumulation on the point forecast yet it says ice over 0.25" possible on the warning. Also, points well east are forecasted to get more ice in the upton zones which doesn't make sense. We need a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Just as I figured, advisories for most of NE NJ and warnings for the watch area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If the NAM is correct, you'd lose all of the snow cover. 1) No you wouldn't. 2) It isn't going to be correct. Read PHI's discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 18z NAM at 12z Tuesday is actually a little colder at the surface across eastern PA and northern Jersey compared to the 12z Nam from earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 4pm Obs. from KPOU has 22/-7 with RH at 27%. This will have some good evap. cooling later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Precip appears to be slightly more ahead of and more widespread over the MA region than last night's 00Z NAM had through 00Z this evening and remember it is only 21Z now...some of that is not reaching the ground but we are getting some indication the early start time I spoke about could happen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Precip appears to be slightly more ahead of and more widespread over the MA region than last night's 00Z NAM had through 00Z this evening and remember it is only 21Z now...some of that is not reaching the ground but we are getting some indication the early start time I spoke about could happen.. That might up the snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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