SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think this could be one of those nowcast events because the temperatures are going to be very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Can we please get back to discussing the impacts of the ice and snow storm instead of bickering back and forth? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 That's actually not my point...And a northeast wind is great for me just like it is in the places you mentioned, cause it usually originates over New England when you trace the streamlines back, especially when there is a high parked in SE Canada. However, by the time this storm is coming up the coast tonight/tomorrow, those stream lines whether or not it is northeasterly over our region, are not supplying cold air for us according to the models with the high offshore. There are actually southerly winds across the rest of New England scouring out the cold air. On the bright side, all the offshore buoys I looked at have air temps in the mid-upper 20s with dew points in the mid teens. http://www.meteo.psu...2z/etaloop.html In the upper levels, with the southerly winds, that's true. That's why we flip to FZRA easily. However, I'm concerned about the surface, because at the surface, a NE wind is not going to make the temperature rise that rapidly IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Any idea on the QPF for the 12z ECMWF? Is it more similar to the GFS or NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think this could be one of those nowcast events because the temperatures are going to be very close. Every single event we get in this region requires nowcasting. There is never an easy forecast when it comes to northeast winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Any idea on the QPF for the 12z ECMWF? Is it more similar to the GFS or NAM? A little bit less along the coast than the GFS, but more QPF inland. The 0.5 isohyet is MDT-SEG-AVP-POU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 In the upper levels, with the southerly winds, that's true. That's why we flip to FZRA easily. However, I'm concerned about the surface, because at the surface, a NE wind is not going to make the temperature rise that rapidly IMO. Rapidly? No, you are probably right about that especially the further northwest one goes. And were only talking a high of 35F too probably. But get us up to 30-31 in these situations with heavy precip and freezing rain is just as good as rain (plus latent heat release will take care of us without the constant low level cold feed like we had with VD2007 type evnts). For my county it will probably not matter much. I won't say the same to Elizabeth even though were only about 20 or so miles away from each other, but this setup will get you to rain eventually. And for the southerly winds I was talking about at the surface across New England, check out the link I just posted and the bottom left panel from 15 hours on. Also note where the northeasterly streamlines over our immediate respective areas originate from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 A little bit less along the coast than the GFS, but more QPF inland. The 0.5 isohyet is MDT-SEG-AVP-POU Thankyou! Once again those of us near MDT are on the cusp of a precipitation gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Only question is, being at a higher elevation, does it get warmer faster? I checked soundings in the Hazleton area and it seems we warm up faster at the surface and become more likely to go non-frozen quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Every single event we get in this region requires nowcasting. There is never an easy forecast when it comes to northeast winter storms. 12/26 was pretty easy, aside from the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12/26 was pretty easy, aside from the banding. Is that a joke? Models struggled incredibly with that storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Is that a joke? Models struggled incredibly with that storm... From how far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 From how far out? Didn't the GFS take it's wrong solution nearly to its grave? I remember it correcting around 12 hours out but I don't think it ever accurately represented QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So...if you were a school administrator in Berks county do you believe schools will be closed on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Now casting generally refers to forecasting less than 12 hours and up to the event. 12/26 was pretty much pinpointed by the models by then as have most events. In ice events when the temp forecast is 33-36F, nowcasting is very important for monitoring those temperature trends because a few degree difference can be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So...if you were a school administrator in Berks county do you believe schools will be closed on Tuesday. if its a more frozen event, i can def see schools closing around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 So...if you were a school administrator in Berks county do you believe schools will be closed on Tuesday. Hypothetically speaking, of course Yeah, I think most of the Lehigh Valley will be closed tomorrow. Philly will be more touch and go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 if its a more frozen event, i can def see schools closing around here you from berks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Didn't the GFS take it's wrong solution nearly to its grave? I remember it correcting around 12 hours out but I don't think it ever accurately represented QPF. Umm, no. The GFS started locking on at 48 hours out, and even from more than a week out, there was a strong signal of an East Coast snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow EURO has a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 if its a more frozen event, i can def see schools closing around here Easton Area SD will close tomorrow. They close for a dusting...lol. If you throw the word "wintery mix/ice" into the forecast they'll be shut down tonight before the storm arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 you from berks? when i meant here, meant everyone in nyc/phl area lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 when i meant here, meant everyone in nyc/phl area lol Almost definitely NOT here in Elizabeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Schools in the Lehigh Valley will close for anything. Not sure why it's so different compared to other areas, but schools here will most likely be closed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Umm, no. The GFS started locking on at 48 hours out, and even from more than a week out, there was a strong signal of an East Coast snowstorm. I dont think it ever wrapped it up enough or tracked it close enough to the coast...but my main annoyance was with the term nowcasting in general. Every event requires at least some of that...and to me the expression is inherently a copout. It's a cool word for IDK, we will see what happens when it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Almost definitely NOT here in Elizabeth. for an ice storm it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Rapidly? No, you are probably right about that especially the further northwest one goes. And were only talking a high of 35F too probably. But get us up to 30-31 in these situations with heavy precip and freezing rain is just as good as rain (plus latent heat release will take care of us without the constant low level cold feed like we had with VD2007 type evnts). For my county it will probably not matter much. I won't say the same to Elizabeth even though were only about 20 or so miles away from each other, but this setup will get you to rain eventually. And for the southerly winds I was talking about at the surface across New England, check out the link I just posted and the bottom left panel from 15 hours on. Also note where the northeasterly streamlines over our immediate respective areas originate from. Let's pay attn to what sfc temps do across New Eng. If they stay below where we're at and we keep Nely winds, I think we'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Schools in the Lehigh Valley will close for anything. Not sure why it's so different compared to other areas, but schools here will most likely be closed tomorrow. I'm not sure if your familiar with the Easton/Wilson area SD, but the last event we had, EASD was the only district closed; yet Wilson SD which is literally a block away from EASD, had a delayed opening. Quite humorous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow EURO has a monster we would having screaming southerly winds with temps in the teens or something inland. looks like that air originates in the arctic circle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm not sure if your familiar with the Easton/Wilson area SD, but the last event we had, EASD was the only district closed; yet Wilson SD which is literally a block away from EASD, had a delayed opening. Quite humorous. How much did it snow out there? 4 or 5 inches? A delayed opening is probably all that was needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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