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NYC/PHL Jan 17-19 Forecast Discussion


am19psu

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That's actually not my point...And a northeast wind is great for me just like it is in the places you mentioned, cause it usually originates over New England when you trace the streamlines back, especially when there is a high parked in SE Canada. However, by the time this storm is coming up the coast tonight/tomorrow, those stream lines whether or not it is northeasterly over our region, are not supplying cold air for us according to the models with the high offshore. There are actually southerly winds across the rest of New England scouring out the cold air. On the bright side, all the offshore buoys I looked at have air temps in the mid-upper 20s with dew points in the mid teens.

http://www.meteo.psu...2z/etaloop.html

In the upper levels, with the southerly winds, that's true. That's why we flip to FZRA easily. However, I'm concerned about the surface, because at the surface, a NE wind is not going to make the temperature rise that rapidly IMO.

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In the upper levels, with the southerly winds, that's true. That's why we flip to FZRA easily. However, I'm concerned about the surface, because at the surface, a NE wind is not going to make the temperature rise that rapidly IMO.

Rapidly? No, you are probably right about that especially the further northwest one goes. And were only talking a high of 35F too probably. But get us up to 30-31 in these situations with heavy precip and freezing rain is just as good as rain (plus latent heat release will take care of us without the constant low level cold feed like we had with VD2007 type evnts). For my county it will probably not matter much. I won't say the same to Elizabeth even though were only about 20 or so miles away from each other, but this setup will get you to rain eventually. And for the southerly winds I was talking about at the surface across New England, check out the link I just posted and the bottom left panel from 15 hours on. Also note where the northeasterly streamlines over our immediate respective areas originate from.

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Now casting generally refers to forecasting less than 12 hours and up to the event. 12/26 was pretty much pinpointed by the models by then as have most events. In ice events when the temp forecast is 33-36F, nowcasting is very important for monitoring those temperature trends because a few degree difference can be huge.

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Didn't the GFS take it's wrong solution nearly to its grave? I remember it correcting around 12 hours out but I don't think it ever accurately represented QPF.

Umm, no. The GFS started locking on at 48 hours out, and even from more than a week out, there was a strong signal of an East Coast snowstorm.

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Umm, no. The GFS started locking on at 48 hours out, and even from more than a week out, there was a strong signal of an East Coast snowstorm.

I dont think it ever wrapped it up enough or tracked it close enough to the coast...but my main annoyance was with the term nowcasting in general. Every event requires at least some of that...and to me the expression is inherently a copout. It's a cool word for IDK, we will see what happens when it happens. :P

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Rapidly? No, you are probably right about that especially the further northwest one goes. And were only talking a high of 35F too probably. But get us up to 30-31 in these situations with heavy precip and freezing rain is just as good as rain (plus latent heat release will take care of us without the constant low level cold feed like we had with VD2007 type evnts). For my county it will probably not matter much. I won't say the same to Elizabeth even though were only about 20 or so miles away from each other, but this setup will get you to rain eventually. And for the southerly winds I was talking about at the surface across New England, check out the link I just posted and the bottom left panel from 15 hours on. Also note where the northeasterly streamlines over our immediate respective areas originate from.

Let's pay attn to what sfc temps do across New Eng. If they stay below where we're at and we keep Nely winds, I think we'll be fine.

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Schools in the Lehigh Valley will close for anything. Not sure why it's so different compared to other areas, but schools here will most likely be closed tomorrow.

I'm not sure if your familiar with the Easton/Wilson area SD, but the last event we had, EASD was the only district closed; yet Wilson SD which is literally a block away from EASD, had a delayed opening. Quite humorous.

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I'm not sure if your familiar with the Easton/Wilson area SD, but the last event we had, EASD was the only district closed; yet Wilson SD which is literally a block away from EASD, had a delayed opening. Quite humorous.

How much did it snow out there? 4 or 5 inches? A delayed opening is probably all that was needed.

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