NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM warms it up to 40 on Tuesday? http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KAVP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM warms it up to 40 on Tuesday? http://www.nws.noaa....all.pl?sta=KAVP NAM is most likely too warm GFS is most likely too cold Take a blend and call it a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 honestly, I thought CBS 880 was way too warm when they were forecasting a Tuesday high of 42 in NYC. we shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM warms it up to 40 on Tuesday? http://www.nws.noaa....all.pl?sta=KAVP Again, look at the temperature and dew point spreads? How the hell is it meteorologically possible to have heavy precipitation falling for a long time on the East Coast of the United States, with a surface temperature of 37 and a dew point of 28? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 honestly, I thought CBS 880 was way too warm when they were forecasting a Tuesday high of 42 in NYC. we shall see! Hugging that NAM MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 honestly, I thought CBS 880 was way too warm when they were forecasting a Tuesday high of 42 in NYC. we shall see! I think 35 is a better call in NYC right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 My winds appear to be already turning towards due east, with even a few ese obs..Granted its 0-5mph right now, but ehh..25/5 though is encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM is most likely too warm GFS is most likely too cold Take a blend and call it a day You are right. Honestly, what more can be done at this point. You got people bashing others here because they aren't running with the GFS, it may be right, or it may be wrong. No one can say for sure at this point. A compromise at this point is the safest way to go, either way GFS or NAM, its not a pretty picture for eastern PA, interior NJ, the Hudson Valley and much of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 My winds appear to be already turning towards due east, with even a few ese obs..Granted its 0-5mph right now, but ehh..25/5 though is encouraging I don't think wind direction really matters if the speed is less than 5 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Gotta love the dew points into the teens all the way into VA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I don't think wind direction really matters if the speed is less than 5 MPH. Looking at the station plot just posted you are probably correct in that it's just light and variable at this point...However, I was going off the Rutgers Gardens site which shows a clear windshift taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looking at the station plot just posted you are probably correct in that it's just light and variable at this point...However, I was going off the Rutgers Gardens site which shows a clear windshift taking place. I'm not saying there is no wind shift. What I'm saying is, even if the wind went DUE South and was only 2 or 3 MPH, I don't think it would matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm not saying there is no wind shift. What I'm saying is, even if the wind went DUE South and was only 2 or 3 MPH, I don't think it would matter. Oh ok, well obviously I know 0-5mph is miniscule, I was hoping we could hold onto a northeasterly component through much of the storm though so that maybe a lot of areas could be surprised. It may be 0-5mph out of the east now, but when the winds are blowing a little harder later, were cooked with that direction(at least I am, but I never have nuch of a chance in these setups anyway so I can't say I'm surprised). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Oh ok, well obviously I know 0-5mph is miniscule, I was hoping we could hold onto a northeasterly component through much of the storm though so that maybe a lot of areas could be surprised. It may be 0-5mph out of the east now, but when the winds are blowing a little harder later, were cooked with that direction(at least I am, but I never have nuch of a chance in these setups anyway so I can't say I'm surprised). When the winds increase, we'll see what happens. The coastal low will also be developing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Let's start a new thread. It's not potential anymore, it's going to be getting underway in the next 12 hours or so. Keep the thread going on topic and professional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 When the winds increase, we'll see what happens. The coastal low will also be developing too. That we will, should help bring a more northeasterly component to the wind hopefully. However, I'm not sure it will matter because if you trace the streamlines back, the air blowing on northeasterly winds is originating from the ocean and southeast of the low pressure with the high center drifting offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Like I said...a blend of the NAM and GFS looks to be good For HPN as of the 12z runs GFS: NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH GUSTY DOWN SLOPING NW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL YIELD A DRY BUT COLD DAY. BLENDED MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 850 HPA (PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS)...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL Gotta love this nugget from OKX! SLIGHTLY below normal? 12 degrees below normal is slightly according to them now! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH GUSTY DOWN SLOPING NW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL YIELD A DRY BUT COLD DAY. BLENDED MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 850 HPA (PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS)...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL Gotta love this nugget from OKX! SLIGHTLY below normal? 12 degrees below normal is slightly according to them now! Wow! plenty of cold air in place and I think some NWS Offices may be downplaying this event. Watch for more WSWs and Ice Storm Warnings to go up later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Like I said...a blend of the NAM and GFS looks to be good For HPN as of the 12z runs GFS: NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like it may be best to split this into seperate PHL and NYC threads again That will do no justice for Bucksmont counties north into the poconos! Just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 That we will, should help bring a more northeasterly component to the wind hopefully. However, I'm not sure it will matter because if you trace the streamlines back, the air blowing on northeasterly winds is originating from the ocean and southeast of the low pressure with the high center drifting offshore. In Holmdel, a NE wind blows off Sandy Hook Bay. In Newark/Elizabeth, a NE wind blows off SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Like I said...a blend of the NAM and GFS looks to be good For HPN as of the 12z runs Alpha - wow, talk about model spread - you're either going to get a foot of snow or an inch of snow and then a deluge of rain. Makes forecasting easy, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Alpha - wow, talk about model spread - you're either going to get a foot of snow or an inch of snow and then a deluge of rain. Makes forecasting easy, lol. Yeah for some reason my area always seems to be on the border in these situations..... I think we see 1-3 of snow then a prolonged period of freezing rain due to the entrenched lower level cold. Theres still over a foot of snow on the ground here and temps have been in the tank the past week or so....so surface stays around 30-31 while the mid levels go to about 4-5c. Maybe a period of rain at the end when the cold is finally uprooted.... Should be fun to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 That will do no justice for Bucksmont counties north into the poconos! Just sayin... When I think ABE and AVP, I think PHL area over NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM is about 0.95 of QPF..GFS 0.35...I guess a compromise would be best for the area, which would yield about 0.60-0.65 QPF and a change to plain rain around 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 When I think ABE and AVP, I think PHL area over NYC area. Yeah, we're basically PHL area up here...that's where I posted previous OBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 When I think ABE and AVP, I think PHL area over NYC area. ABE/AVP definitely PHL. I agree, starting to see some southern NE'ers coming into this thread derailing it. No offense to any of you, but this is why the forums are separated according to region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 In Holmdel, a NE wind blows off Sandy Hook Bay. In Newark/Elizabeth, a NE wind blows off SW CT. That's actually not my point...And a northeast wind is great for me just like it is in the places you mentioned, cause it usually originates over New England when you trace the streamlines back, especially when there is a high parked in SE Canada. However, by the time this storm is coming up the coast tonight/tomorrow, those stream lines whether or not it is northeasterly over our region, are not supplying cold air for us according to the models with the high offshore. There are actually southerly winds across the rest of New England scouring out the cold air. On the bright side, all the offshore buoys I looked at have air temps in the mid-upper 20s with dew points in the mid teens. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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