tornadojay Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 at 30 hours, 850 mb zero line is across northern Orange county through central Putnam county. zero 2M line is through central bergen county and central westchester county. For those in eastern PA, the zero 2M Temp line pretty much hangs out about KTTN and points due west,southwest from there, with 850 mb zero line well north, so it would be consistant with fairly significant icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks good for KRDG...wow a real mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Do u have one for KLNS? Thanks http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KLNS.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like a mess for White Plains and then N and W of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 QPF really questionable out here towards Harrisburg. 12z NAM had nearly .953in of QPF and the GFS looks to be around .25in. Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Imagine if there was a solution with the GFS temps and NAM QPF...that would be a disaster for the NW suburbs of PHL and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 at 30 hours, 850 mb zero line is across northern Orange county through central Putnam county. zero 2M line is through central bergen county and central westchester county. For those in eastern PA, the zero 2M Temp line pretty much hangs out about KTTN and points due west,southwest from there, with 850 mb zero line well north, so it would be consistant with fairly significant icing With the 12z NAM total precip thru 30 is 0.92 at KSWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 30 hours out and the NAM and GFS are still worlds apart on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm not to familiar with some of the locations by designation. i know MPO is Mt. Pocono and EWR is Newark but could someone please tell me what the designation is for places like Oakland, West Milford, Pompton Plains area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 A compromise of the GFS and NAM seems good, the NAM being the warm/wet outliner and the GFS cold/dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm not to familiar with some of the locations by designation. i know MPO is Mt. Pocono and EWR is Newark but could someone please tell me what the designation is for places like Oakland, West Milford, Pompton Plains area. That's kind of in an inbetween area.. You have KMMU (Morristown) which is about 25 miles south.. probably your best bet, because it is about the same distance west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Turkey Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 That's kind of in an inbetween area.. You have KMMU (Morristown) which is about 25 miles south.. probably your best bet, because it is about the same distance west of NYC I'm in the same boat up in here in Ringwood. There's really no great comparable station nearby weather-wise. Morristown is probably the best, but there are still subtle differences (elevation, latitude, etc.) that don't make it perfect for forecasting purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 That's kind of in an inbetween area.. You have KMMU (Morristown) which is about 25 miles south.. probably your best bet, because it is about the same distance west of NYC For those areas and mine (Wayne), I've always used a blend of KMMU (Morristown) and KCDW (Essex County Airport\Caldwell) numbers. It seems to work out even though we are bit north\higher in elevation than both airports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 That's kind of in an inbetween area.. You have KMMU (Morristown) which is about 25 miles south.. probably your best bet, because it is about the same distance west of NYC dont know about that, having grown up in the area kmmu seems to not do as well as the areas listed above. I usually use a mix of kfwn and kmmu. Espc. with these changeover storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'd go with the GFS, the NAM always overdoes QPF. That being said, my forecast: 2-4" of snow/sleet for NYC with less than half the event being liquid. ZR concerns are mostly unwarranted besides a 5-10 mile band, which will (IMO) set up just N of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm in the same boat up in here in Ringwood. There's really no great comparable station nearby weather-wise. Morristown is probably the best, but there are still subtle differences (elevation, latitude, etc.) that don't make it perfect for forecasting purposes. Same thing here, In Oak Ridge (Jefferson TWP in Morris co) I split the differenc from mmu and fwn . lol BTW It suks not getting bukit for some place out here like kfwn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm not to familiar with some of the locations by designation. i know MPO is Mt. Pocono and EWR is Newark but could someone please tell me what the designation is for places like Oakland, West Milford, Pompton Plains area. They do not have a symbol for every little town. Closest to you are Morristown (MMU I believe) and Sussex (Which I forgot but DDR sticks in my mind) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 They do not have a symbol for every little town. Closest to you are Morristown (MMU I believe) and Sussex (Which I forgot but DDR sticks in my mind) FWN is Sussex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 We should make a blended model output consisting of KMMU, KCDW, and KFWN, I think that would be a winner for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm not to familiar with some of the locations by designation. i know MPO is Mt. Pocono and EWR is Newark but could someone please tell me what the designation is for places like Oakland, West Milford, Pompton Plains area. CDW-- Caldwell NJ FWN-- Sussex NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 We should make a blended model output consisting of KMMU, KCDW, and KFWN, I think that would be a winner for our area. id get rid of kcdw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Ringwood/West milford is much more similar to Sussex/Andover if you ask me than Morristown due to elevation differences. If its snowing in Sussex and mixing/raining in MMU chances are its snowing in West Milford I'm in the same boat up in here in Ringwood. There's really no great comparable station nearby weather-wise. Morristown is probably the best, but there are still subtle differences (elevation, latitude, etc.) that don't make it perfect for forecasting purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Ringwood/West milford is much more similar to Sussex/Andover if you ask me than Morristown due to elevation differences. If its snowing in Sussex and mixing/raining in MMU chances are its snowing in West Milford Andover is way too far West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'd go with the GFS, the NAM always overdoes QPF. That being said, my forecast: 2-4" of snow/sleet for NYC with less than half the event being liquid. ZR concerns are mostly unwarranted besides a 5-10 mile band, which will (IMO) set up just N of the city. 5-10 mile band of ZR? where are you getting that idea from? The more I look at this, the more I think a significant ice event is becoming LIKELY for NW NJ and the Hudson Valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Add K12N - Andover NJ CDW-- Caldwell NJ FWN-- Sussex NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Andover is way too far West. yes but morristowns way south, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Radar starting to fill in south of Wilmington/east of Charlestown, about 4 hours ahead of both the nam and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 5-10 mile band of ZR? where are you getting that idea from? The more I look at this, the more I think a significant ice event is becoming LIKELY for NW NJ and the Hudson Valley... Agreed. And the problem is that it's very hard to determine exactly where the ice/no ice line will set up, since a few tenths of a degree can make all the difference. If I were on shift at NWS today, I would rather overwarn for ice than underwarn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Folks.. I will briefly mention that the 1/21 event is fairly interesting on the GFS this run. You might want to take a peek over to the other thread for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Commute wise, I know as a fact, having spun out without hitting anything near Saratoga Springs, just because air temp has risen slightly above freezing, doesn't mean the ground isn't still cold enough to accumulate ice for a while. I see NYC, especially the suburbs, as a problem between 4 am and 7 am, ie, commute time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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