am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I don't see any region to split the regions for this threat, since this is more E/W hazard gradient, rather than N/S. Anyway, have at it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 18z GFS is definitely not a warning event for the NYC metro area. It looks as if about 1" snow falls before a transition to a couple hours of light icing, then heavy rain. I could see the surface trending a little colder with the flow being more E/NE, but I believe a warning event will be confined to NW NJ, the Poconos, and elevated parts of SE NY including the higher spots in Putnam and Dutchess Counties. Impact should be fairly limited within the 5 Boroughs and on Long Island, where this looks to be a run-of-the-mill rainstorm. It's a shame the storm takes such a poor track because we have a great antecedent airmass and would get a ton of snow if the track of the primary were slightly further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Icy rush hour for the cities if the ARW and NMM are right. Places like the Lehigh Valley are still very cold at this time with temps at or below 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 For my area (see dot on map in signature. Southern Poconos, just above the Lehigh Valley): Monday Night: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 16. East wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tuesday: Snow before 9am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 9am and noon, then freezing rain after noon. High near 33. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tuesday Night: Freezing rain likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 28. North wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 18z nam and gfs are over 1.00"qpf apart for my area 30 hours away from the onset of precip. Doesnt look like it will matter much as it should be mostly liquid here, but imagine if it were snow -- would be another difficult time predicting snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 18z GFS is definitely not a warning event for the NYC metro area. It looks as if about 1" snow falls before a transition to a couple hours of light icing, then heavy rain. I could see the surface trending a little colder with the flow being more E/NE, but I believe a warning event will be confined to NW NJ, the Poconos, and elevated parts of SE NY including the higher spots in Putnam and Dutchess Counties. Impact should be fairly limited within the 5 Boroughs and on Long Island, where this looks to be a run-of-the-mill rainstorm. It's a shame the storm takes such a poor track because we have a great antecedent airmass and would get a ton of snow if the track of the primary were slightly further south. Here's what I don't understand, though. SOMETHING is going to be wrong! The MOS sets for EWR are showing NE-NNE winds, with temperatures somehow rising 15 degrees with heavy precipitation falling. Models were horribly off on temperatures on 2/14/2007 when they did something similar. Either the wind direction is wrong, or the temperatures are wrong. Time will tell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 If the NAM somehow pulls off a coup; what would be the resulting effect for nyc/LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It'll be interesting what our very own AmericanWx WRF says when it gets in this storm's range tomorrow at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Here's what I don't understand, though. SOMETHING is going to be wrong! The MOS sets for EWR are showing NE-NNE winds, with temperatures somehow rising 15 degrees with heavy precipitation falling. Models were horribly off on temperatures on 2/14/2007 when they did something similar. Either the wind direction is wrong, or the temperatures are wrong. Time will tell! I was wondering same thing with the winds as well but figured I would leave that part to the experts.. My Area N-Central NJ is supposed to be a high of 26 on Monday..Precip is supposed to start over night Monday so at the very earliest Temps would go above freezing Late morning or early afternoon Tues so at the very least will be an icy mess for Rush Hr on Tues..BTW- My pinpoint Forecast had a high of 42 On Tues yesterday now today have a High of 39.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I was wondering same thing with the winds as well but figured I would leave that part to the experts.. My Area N-Central NJ is supposed to be a high of 26 on Monday..Precip is supposed to start over night Monday so at the very earliest Temps would go above freezing Late morning or early afternoon Tues so at the very least will be an icy mess for Rush Hr on Tues..BTW- My pinpoint Forecast had a high of 42 On Tues yesterday now today have a High of 39.. Rush hour will be messy regardless. I think it's kind of "interesting" that OKX has ZERO freezing rain here Tuesday! Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I was wondering same thing with the winds as well but figured I would leave that part to the experts.. My Area N-Central NJ is supposed to be a high of 26 on Monday..Precip is supposed to start over night Monday so at the very earliest Temps would go above freezing Late morning or early afternoon Tues so at the very least will be an icy mess for Rush Hr on Tues..BTW- My pinpoint Forecast had a high of 42 On Tues yesterday now today have a High of 39.. Might want to add your location to your profile, so it appears on all your posts - have no idea where you are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Just ran the Wxsim module against the 18z GFS and NAM and it is looking more ominous then before for the Philly suburbs...with now the Wed AM commute also looking like an icy mess Here's the rundown Snow still arrives by midnight (temp 24.2) Snow and IP mixed thru around 630am with 2 or 2.5" of snow accumulating by then temp 26.9 at 630am IP and ZR mixed for a brief period between 7 and 9am and then just ZR thru 3pm - 0.27" falls with temps below freezing. Between 330p and 530p temp peaks at the high for the day at 32.8 degrees Temp falls back just below freezing after 6pm with an additional .0.30" of ZR falling before rush hour on Wednesday morning. Paul www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Just ran the Wxsim module against the 18z GFS and NAM and it is looking more ominous then before for the Philly suburbs...with now the Wed AM commute also looking like an icy mess Here's the rundown Snow still arrives by midnight (temp 24.2) Snow and IP mixed thru around 630am with 2 or 2.5" of snow accumulating by then temp 26.9 at 630am IP and ZR mixed for a brief period between 7 and 9am and then just ZR thru 3pm - 0.27" falls with temps below freezing. Between 330p and 530p temp peaks at the high for the day at 32.8 degrees Temp falls back just below freezing after 6pm with an additional .0.30" of ZR falling before rush hour on Wednesday morning. Paul www.chescowx.com Would you mind running it for maybe somewhere in the Lehigh Valley just to see what it does in that area? I assume it would be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Just ran the Wxsim module against the 18z GFS and NAM and it is looking more ominous then before for the Philly suburbs...with now the Wed AM commute also looking like an icy mess Here's the rundown Snow still arrives by midnight (temp 24.2) Snow and IP mixed thru around 630am with 2 or 2.5" of snow accumulating by then temp 26.9 at 630am IP and ZR mixed for a brief period between 7 and 9am and then just ZR thru 3pm - 0.27" falls with temps below freezing. Between 330p and 530p temp peaks at the high for the day at 32.8 degrees Temp falls back just below freezing after 6pm with an additional .0.30" of ZR falling before rush hour on Wednesday morning. Paul www.chescowx.com GREAT! -- Should be close to the same deal for Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The valley will be an icy mess Tuesday into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Unfortunately it is only an IMBY program but would expect the ABE area to be worse.... ote name='_AR_' timestamp='12952216Oí56' post='298487'] Would you mind running it for maybe somewhere in the Lehigh Valley just to see what it does in that area? I assume it would be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Unfortunately it is only an IMBY program but would expect the ABE area to be worse.... Yeah. I really have a gut feeling that this will turn out to be largely a non-event, or somehow go over to plain rain without much ice issue. However at the same time, I feel this has more potential to be a significant ice storm than we have seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah. I really have a gut feeling that this will turn out to be largely a non-event, or somehow go over to plain rain without much ice issue. However at the same time, I feel this has more potential to be a significant ice storm than we have seen in a while. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What? My gut feelings have been wrong a lot recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Just ran the Wxsim module against the 18z GFS and NAM and it is looking more ominous then before for the Philly suburbs...with now the Wed AM commute also looking like an icy mess Here's the rundown Snow still arrives by midnight (temp 24.2) Snow and IP mixed thru around 630am with 2 or 2.5" of snow accumulating by then temp 26.9 at 630am IP and ZR mixed for a brief period between 7 and 9am and then just ZR thru 3pm - 0.27" falls with temps below freezing. Between 330p and 530p temp peaks at the high for the day at 32.8 degrees Temp falls back just below freezing after 6pm with an additional .0.30" of ZR falling before rush hour on Wednesday morning. Paul www.chescowx.com Accuwx has been banging the drum for 43 and rain Tues. Just hasn't felt right out our way. I can see us struggling to hit freezing much of the day as cold air stubbornly holds on. This system doesn't really have the 'oomph' to drive the cold air out this far north I think. Expecting alot of fog by Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Unfortunately it is only an IMBY program but would expect the ABE area to be worse.... Paul - just curious. How does it identify your IMBY? Do you enter in lat/long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Here's what I don't understand, though. SOMETHING is going to be wrong! The MOS sets for EWR are showing NE-NNE winds, with temperatures somehow rising 15 degrees with heavy precipitation falling. Models were horribly off on temperatures on 2/14/2007 when they did something similar. Either the wind direction is wrong, or the temperatures are wrong. Time will tell! The wind direction in these events often holds NE longer than the models anticipate but given the very bad position of the high this time I think everyone on the coast eventually goes 070-100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The wind direction in these events often holds NE longer than the models anticipate but given the very bad position of the high this time I think everyone on the coast eventually goes 070-100. Like I said, ONE of those HAS to be wrong. 070 might still work out where I am, but nothing East of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah. I really have a gut feeling that this will turn out to be largely a non-event, or somehow go over to plain rain without much ice issue. However at the same time, I feel this has more potential to be a significant ice storm than we have seen in a while. HA...I feel the same way.....my feeling is this thing is going to go SN-RA within 90 minutes of commencement for NYC/LGA/JFK/EWR and all of LI with not much of a sustained ice period even for areas relatively far inland.....at the same time though history has shown as that snowy winters tend to get every event more wintry than anyone expects while lousy winters those events that look like they will work out go into the crapper....my forecasts are basically going nada for now but I'll be on my heels as we get into the short term to see if somehow that ridge tries to wedge in but I'm liking the weekend alot more right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Now there is a definitive statement if I have ever seen one. I love someone who takes a stand on a position. I mean what the heck are you trying to say? Yeah. I really have a gut feeling that this will turn out to be largely a non-event, or somehow go over to plain rain without much ice issue. However at the same time, I feel this has more potential to be a significant ice storm than we have seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Unfortunately it is only an IMBY program but would expect the ABE area to be worse.... Paul - just curious. How does it identify your IMBY? Do you enter in lat/long? When you purchase the program it is customized to your individual location. Lat Long elevation climate etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah. I really have a gut feeling that this will turn out to be largely a non-event, or somehow go over to plain rain without much ice issue. However at the same time, I feel this has more potential to be a significant ice storm than we have seen in a while. I think he meant the ice issues would be more severe in the Lehigh Valley than where he's at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So...things are pretty quiet here. Is this going to be a non-event or is the discussion slow because metro areas will be affected in a minor way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If anyone out there has a contact with OKX, when you are on their home page and under Top News Of The Day, the title " WINTER PRECIP POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY" the link is not working. The other topics under that one work ok. Maybe other folks can try it out too. I sent a storm report with comments to them about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Oh well I-78 will be a mess again, I hate these Ice events. They always seems to last longer than predicted. more OT cant complain I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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