negative-nao Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Can the mets on here please chime in on their thoughts about this potential ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Can the mets on here please chime in on their thoughts about this potential ? Not a met (by any stretch), but if you could post a map or two, it would be helpful. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 DT says a major storm is likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Both the GFS and Euro are digging the northern stream system from 72-96 too far south and west...S KS/N OK/S MO do not see major winter weather events from northern stream originating systems unless you have a massive PNA ridge out west which we do not have though we have a big broad ridge there....the GFS should be more north and hence faster ejecting the storm out which would result in a bigger storm more northward on the East Coast....the Euro does other things wrong afterwards which causes it to have a later storm than the GFS or GEM want to....the most likely scenario is something very close to the 12z GEM but more amplified and further northwest, the GEM has been a bit progressive all season though its had the right idea most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Both the GFS and Euro are digging the northern stream system from 72-96 too far south and west...S KS/N OK/S MO do not see major winter weather events from northern stream originating systems unless you have a massive PNA ridge out west which we do not have though we have a big broad ridge there....the GFS should be more north and hence faster ejecting the storm out which would result in a bigger storm more northward on the East Coast....the Euro does other things wrong afterwards which causes it to have a later storm than the GFS or GEM want to....the most likely scenario is something very close to the 12z GEM but more amplified and further northwest, the GEM has been a bit progressive all season though its had the right idea most of the time. The 00Z GEM continues to be on top of this storm...the Euro will probably still spit out a storm at 00Z but be too late with it....the pattern in the WATL is not extremely favorable and this system has some potential to track close enough for mixing concerns on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 The 00Z GEM continues to be on top of this storm...the Euro will probably still spit out a storm at 00Z but be too late with it....the pattern in the WATL is not extremely favorable and this system has some potential to track close enough for mixing concerns on the coast. Can you post a Map of tonights Euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Can you post a Map of tonights Euro run? picture no snow anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 DT says a major storm is likely From wxrisk.com The main issue of concern and focused from MY which really is on the THREAT of significant winter storm threat for JAN 21-22-23. THREAT… not yet a fact or a forecast Given the number of big storms which is hammered the Northeast US this winter it is easy to assume that the big East coast winter storm scenrio #1 is probably going to turn out to be orrect . And of course given the seasonal trend it’s hard to argue against that the BIG East coast winter storm idea. But if we decide to use science as opposed to weenie wishcasting… the last 3 big East coast winter storms have all occured with strong High latitude blocking over Eastern Canada and Greenland (a strong negative phase of the NAO) . That is clearly not going to be the case this time around and certainly not by January 20-21-22. Right now I do not have a particular favorite— I am not biased towards one scenario or another one. The change in the pattern in the jet stream over the Eastern Canada and Greenland should be significant in my opinion so as to favor the flatter weaker way of scenario affecting only the Virginia North Carolina this coming weekend . So are you purposefully lying in the main wx section or did he upgrade his thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The 00Z GEM has a bomb of epic proportions but not even one of its 20 ensemble members support the idea...the Euro did the same last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 picture no snow anywhere I'll be shoveling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not a met (by any stretch), but if you could post a map or two, it would be helpful. Thanks! Can you post a Map of tonights Euro run? The free Euro data can be seen on the models page, located within the AmWx domain. (at the top of this page: Go To -> Model Data (by Raleighwx) http://raleighwx.ame...com/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neero Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Is this the system you are talking about? http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_096l.gif (12Z GFS at +96 hrs), so Friday morning? GGEM is going crazy about it, but nothing else even comes close to it, unfortunately... (120 hour total pcp map. ) Also quite warm with such a strong system, so there would be a lot of mixing issues along coastal areas in this projection. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggemp120_NE120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z gfs seems to show rain for most of us as the low appears inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neero Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z gfs seems to show rain for most of us as the low appears inland. Are you sure? Perhaps I'm misinterpreting, but the 0C (850 MP Temp) line doesn't move north of Southern Virginia from 90 - 120 hours. The low is inland, but cold, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Are you sure? Perhaps I'm misinterpreting, but the 0C (850 MP Temp) line doesn't move north of Southern Virginia from 90 - 120 hours. The low is inland, but cold, right? depends where you are. South of DC...looking too warm for anything much end of this week. DC on north looks good. Euro supporting the idea. Doesn't look like a huge event...but maybe a nice overrunning advisory event for a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Are you sure? Perhaps I'm misinterpreting, but the 0C (850 MP Temp) line doesn't move north of Southern Virginia from 90 - 120 hours. The low is inland, but cold, right? Rainstorm lives in SE VA. It would help if you had a location in your sig too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 depends where you are. South of DC...looking too warm for anything much end of this week. DC on north looks good. Euro supporting the idea. Doesn't look like a huge event...but maybe a nice overrunning advisory event for a lot of folks. I remember Don mentioned a minor to perhaps moderate event before the cold air comes in-- I read this to mean something on the order of 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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