mitchnick Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 wow, I start a general banter thread around here and Euro comes in with a MECS by the way, Euro qpf for next Sunday storm, MOS only goes out to Sunday 12Z, there may be some more that falls after that hour, I'm not certain until new maps come out in about a half an hour BWI-.95" mainly, if not all, snow IAD-.93" all snow DCA-1.03", probably a mix for a time Annapolis-.93" definitely some mix DOV-.86" snow, mix, then rain (if only this comes true) Westminster-.85" all snow CHO-.50 all snow EZF-.67" snow, mix, then back to snow HGR-.63 all snow ROA-.32" all snow Odenton-1.02" mainly, if not all, snow FDK-.81 all snow forgot Phin MTN-.84" mostly, if not all, snow (with definitely more qpf to fall after 168 hrs I would guess by RH readings) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 DT is swinging for the fences now. He has almost become JB like. He wants to hit a Grand Slam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 DT is swinging for the fences now. He has almost become JB like. He wants to hit a Grand Slam personally, I think he's playing with you a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 DT is swinging for the fences now. He has almost become JB like. He wants to hit a Grand Slam Dave Kingman did hit a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 back to reality latest SREFs for Mon/Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm just kidding. It's good to have you and Midlo looking out for our area. Although my blood pressure did shoot up after reading one post about a MECS and then seeing your low qpf post. In any case, I think that the DC/BWI crew could be a lot happier this time next week(except for psuhoffman, who will not be satisfied with what he gets). MDstorm i did say it was a secs looking at the indiv panels. qpf did seem low.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 yoda may have trouble with his ice if we only get .1" precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 boy, I would love to have a talk with the atmosphere so it could tell me why the precip continues to be east of us in every storm this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 yoda may have trouble with his ice if we only get .1" precip DCA is on the 0.25 precip line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 yoda may have trouble with his ice if we only get .1" precip I stopped looking at the sref's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 There's an issue that keeps coming up that puzzles me. The Euro is admittedly the most accurate model in portraying east coast snow storms in the medium range. Most east coast storms involve energy which originates in the south/west. However, I constantly read about the Euro' s bias of holding energy back in the southwest. Everytime the Euro shows a solution that is at odds with other models, many are quick to throw the Euro's southwest bias around. If the Euro's southwest bias was so bad, how could it remain the most accurate medium range model, considering many east coast snow storms involve energy from the southwest? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 DCA is on the 0.25 precip line Not a good day for map reading apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 I stopped looking at the sref's actually, 87 hrs la-la-land doesn't look bad to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I still don't get how the low will be like over Ocean city and there is like no qpf west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Lets see what the 18z NAM decides to reveal in this run of.... oh who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 actually, 87 hrs la-la-land doesn't look bad to me and it looks a lot like the Day 4 Euro (note SREF 87 hrs is 6 hrs earlier than Day 4 Euro http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 From afternoon LWX AFD... hai Ian PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW...OR A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN MINOR OR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS FROM THE TOP DOWN. FREEZING RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE PREDOMINANT WINTRY P-TYPE AND ALSO LIKELY WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS WINTER EVENT DUE TO ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TUESDAY MORNINGS RUSH HOUR WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED DUE TO ICING...ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL MD AND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON WEST THROUGH THE CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 and it looks a lot like the Day 4 Euro (note SREF 87 hrs is 6 hrs earlier than Day 4 Euro http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest I thought that you had boarded a plane for Winter's Over Island. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Euro Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 From afternoon LWX AFD... hai Ian i think i made your call yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 i think i made your call yesterday O RLY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Euro Ensembles? sorta have the idea but flat.. flatter than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 looks like LWX chipped a degree or two off in their zones for tomorrow night. Low was near 30 for me this morning... this afternoon its upper 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 There's an issue that keeps coming up that puzzles me. The Euro is admittedly the most accurate model in portraying east coast snow storms in the medium range. Most east coast storms involve energy which originates in the south/west. However, I constantly read about the Euro' s bias of holding energy back in the southwest. Everytime the Euro shows a solution that is at odds with other models, many are quick to throw the Euro's southwest bias around. If the Euro's southwest bias was so bad, how could it remain the most accurate medium range model, considering many east coast snow storms involve energy from the southwest? MDstorm Apparently, the biggest issue the Euro has is with actual large CUTOFF SW lows. It wants to delay and hold back the amount of energy ejecting out...thus creating the difficulties downstream. When it's a matter of simply a piece of Srn stream SW energy riding along and eastward...there's much less of an issue here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looking at the Euro ens spag plots, there is a decent amount of members that have the coastal storm, with a few bombing it out sub 980 near Cape Cod. The OP euro is a slow outliner, but otherwise, it has some ensemble support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Euro Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 O RLY? well i think i said ~.1 max. i havent re-addressed it since. maybe .11 max now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 sorta have the idea but flat.. flatter than 0z My favorite word when hearing about the Euro is "flat." Flat is never good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM might be a little wetter early on than 12z was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 well i think i said ~.1 max. i havent re-addressed it since. maybe .11 max now. Probably .1-.12 is max in DCA... but suburbs N & W could see up to .2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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