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Mid-Winter Crisis or Start of Something Big?


mitchnick

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man lwx is going way cold fri night and sat

Yeah - looking at their latest forecast, the 8 degrees Friday night and high of 22 degrees Saturday seem pretty bold. What's your prediction for temps? It'll definitely be cold, but mid-teens Friday night, and upper 20s on Saturday seems more reasonable.

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For euro analysis, I propose we trade Ian for Tombo. I almost threw my iPhone in the toilet after reading Ian's low qpf comment. We can't afford mistakes in the Euro analysis posts.

:arrowhead:

MDstorm

now that's just mean :devilsmiley:

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Yeah - looking at their latest forecast, the 8 degrees Friday night and high of 22 degrees Saturday seem pretty bold. What's your prediction for temps? It'll definitely be cold, but mid-teens Friday night, and upper 20s on Saturday seems more reasonable.

i havent really looked that far ... tho seeing the euro and now looking at gfs mos they seem a good bit low. it is kind of bold to go ~10 below climo at this range.

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i havent really looked that far ... tho seeing the euro and now looking at gfs mos they seem a good bit low. it is kind of bold to go ~10 below climo at this range.

That is what I was thinking - we're a week out. It could well verify that low, but starting more conservative with temps, then lowering if necessary as we get closer would seem to make sense.

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now that's just mean :devilsmiley:

I'm just kidding. It's good to have you and Midlo looking out for our area. Although my blood pressure did shoot up after reading one post about a MECS and then seeing your low qpf post. In any case, I think that the DC/BWI crew could be a lot happier this time next week(except for psuhoffman, who will not be satisfied with what he gets). :whistle:

MDstorm

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wow, I start a general banter thread around here and Euro comes in with a MECS

by the way, Euro qpf for next Sunday storm, MOS only goes out to Sunday 12Z, there may be some more that falls after that hour, I'm not certain until new maps come out in about a half an hour

BWI-.95" mainly, if not all, snow

IAD-.93" all snow

DCA-1.03", probably a mix for a time

Annapolis-.93" definitely some mix

DOV-.86" snow, mix, then rain (if only this comes true)

Westminster-.85" all snow

CHO-.50 all snow

EZF-.67" snow, mix, then back to snow

HGR-.63 all snow

ROA-.32" all snow

Odenton-1.02" mainly, if not all, snow

FDK-.81 all snow

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DT continues to hang on the Euro for a Jan 22-23 MECS, with heavy ice and snow from SC to Maine. He's stating that it's "likely". I hope he's right, but a lot of time (and model runs) between now and next weekend.

He is relentless. I remember after the last miss, he swore it would be a long time before predicting a big snow in VA. Now, he's throwing out the word likely with little other model support. I have to admit though, I like seeing it. Hope goes a long ways.

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