mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 the 00z runs tonight will be very telling right? I'm hoping they start telling you to shut up sorry, I saw a cheap shot so I took it reminds me of your sister, dohhh, there it goes again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 End of the storm on the Dgex btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NOTING A TREND ON THE GFS on the Friday storm: The snowfall amounts have slowly been increasing over the area over the last 4 runs (maybe more... I don't have that info. handy though). The southward trend is interesting. Here's what it looks like now: (Image courtesy of MDA/EarthSat) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 End of the Dgex btw. if you add that to hrs 78 & 84 on the NAM, that's some decent qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 you know, when we had our historic last year, PHL had a near historic year, NYC was AN in snow and SNE had an average winter this year, everybody is doing average or above except for us at way below hate to say it, but it just ain't fair weenie rant over Uh the truth actually furthers your point- PHL smashed their all-time seasonal record last year, and ended up with more snow than Baltimore did (after the NWS adjusted BWI's total). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The GFS is going toward the NAM so we have the NAM/CMC/GFS ENS. I like it. it's still a miller b... it looks like a lesser jan 2005 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 it's still a miller b... it looks like a lesser jan 2005 right now. seems like the flow is way to fast to give anyone anywhere near the totals of 1/05 Ian verbatim, 3-4" down here and 5-6" up there followed by some decent cold air EDIT: I know you said lesser, but I guess 1/05 just brings nightmares to my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 seems like the flow is way to fast to give anyone anywhere near the totals of 1/05 Ian verbatim, 3-4" down here and 5-6" up there followed by some decent cold air EDIT: I know you said lesser, but I guess 1/05 just brings nightmares to my head I do so I like the trends thus far. 3-4 would be nice here. For most storms it's been Euro in our camp with GFS not. Nice to have the flip flop. I never thought I'd say it but I'll take that this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 if you add that to hrs 78 & 84 on the NAM, that's some decent qpf Probably .5-1" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 seems like the flow is way to fast to give anyone anywhere near the totals of 1/05 Ian verbatim, 3-4" down here and 5-6" up there followed by some decent cold air EDIT: I know you said lesser, but I guess 1/05 just brings nightmares to my head dc only got 3 and change i think no? looks like 6-12 up BOS way at this range. plenty of time for the vort to figure out how to stack etc and slow for a while up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 I do so I like the trends thus far. 3-4 would be nice here. For most storms it's been Euro in our camp with GFS not. Nice to have the flip flop. I never thought I'd say it but I'll take that this year. agree Euro will bring it back tonight or tomorrow 12Z, book it that's been its MO it seems to sniff them out first, clobbers us, looses it, brings it back for us but not as strong, then looses it as reality is clarified shortly before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 dc only got 3 and change i think no? looks like 6-12 up BOS way at this range. plenty of time for the vort to figure out how to stack etc and slow for a while up that way. If this is for real, we need to see that 500 vort start heading south of DC. If it lingers in its current location or goes a little north, I think we all know what that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If this is for real, we need to see that 500 vort start heading south of DC. If it lingers in its current location or goes a little north, I think we all know what that means. I've got to be honest... I'm a little afraid of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If this is for real, we need to see that 500 vort start heading south of DC. If it lingers in its current location or goes a little north, I think we all know what that means. i think we could get a few inches from the front end if it worked out right though probably not a ton.. 1-3/2-4? i'd like to see everything keep going south but that's a low probability event. even if the models went that way the next few runs it would be hard to believe. the euro is not really that different than the gfs right now, the gfs develops a bit quicker etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 If this is for real, we need to see that 500 vort start heading south of DC. If it lingers in its current location or goes a little north, I think we all know what that means again. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 fixed HA Ha... exactly. Seasonal----... forget it... I'm not freakin saying it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm issuing up a Wet Blanket Watch for this thread. Goddamn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm issuing up a Wet Blanket Watch for this thread. Goddamn! Agree but it's sure hard NOT to be this year. It's been BRUTAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm issuing up a Wet Blanket Watch for this thread. Goddamn! truths are ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm issuing up a Wet Blanket Watch for this thread. Goddamn! I would be more optimistic if every storm hadn't screwed us in the same exact way and this one wasn't looking like those past storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS still seems to crushing the southern energy too much with the northern stream. I think this is going to correct further south and west with the low placement as time goes on. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If this is for real, we need to see that 500 vort start heading south of DC. If it lingers in its current location or goes a little north, I think we all know what that means. That gets a little difficult when it's on the 516DM contour. All it needs to do is leave 3-5 and it's the biggest storm of the season. I just don't wanna see SNE get slammed again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This board is getting really depressing to read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This board is getting really depressing to read You have no room to talk. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Good night to drink and watch the models come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I drove through NYC the other day, for a few minutes I started to feel this wave of snow superiority. Alas it faded as I left the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Good night to drink and watch the models come in. I really like this idea. Time to buy some Sam Adams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 But isn't the fact that the 500 vort, where it is currently depicted on the 18z run, the reason for the snow possibilities? Since these models are so unreliable, is there anything currently on the models that would prevent the 500 vort from moving south of DC? If this is for real, we need to see that 500 vort start heading south of DC. If it lingers in its current location or goes a little north, I think we all know what that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18z looks further inland and more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 But isn't the fact that the 500 vort, where it is currently depicted on the 18z run, the reason for the snow possibilities? Since these models are so unreliable, is there anything currently on the models that would prevent the 500 vort from moving south of DC? partly, tho good deal of moisture comes from the southern vort. the northern stream may act to tug some of it over the area. if you don't want to have a very high chance on missing out on the coastal you want the vort to go south. ultimately most of our hope is on the front end probably, so i guess we just want it to pass in a favorable way to give us precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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