yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 by the way, the SREF's looked good that came out just before the 18Z NAM so I'm not surprised at what the NAM is showing with its ensembles as support Did you see the UVV's/Omegas at h7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The NAM is advertising a storm the likes of which hasn't been seen in many years (i.e., one where Richmond actually mixes and it pays to be NW of the cities). No way it verifies. F Richmond how much for my backyard? Kidding. It is NAM 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Did you see the UVV's/Omegas at h7? yep a fairly quick, albeit effective, thumping of snow on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 oh my goodness...once the NAM pummels us, we will be above average snow for the year LOL LOL LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I hear that the Euro Ensembles say "WHAT SNOW?" Judging by Ralieghs site the southern energy is further east (NM vs AZ) than the OP at 72 hours, which if indeed, the OP probably had a screwy run. I don't have the in between hours to see what happens for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM run looks similar an event in Dec of either 2005 or 2007 where we got a quick thump then it turned to ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM run looks similar an event in Dec of either 2005 or 2007 where we got a quick thump then it turned to ice 18z NAM looks pretty darn bullish at 84 but it wont verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Just dont see why the gfs ensembles should be discounted in favor of the euro simply because the pattern hasn't been very good! im not going to lean on the gfs ensembles over the op runs of the gfs and euro/euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dobie Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 31 degrees in S/E Fairfax. Going to be interesting. Doppler is showing the freezing line running down 95 S. to about just N. of Fredericksburg. A mix line is staying steady from there East. Snow approaching from the S/W at a pretty good clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 im not going to lean on the gfs ensembles over the op runs of the gfs and euro/euro ens you would lean on the gfs ensembles if the GFS showed a big snow and the ensembles did not. I know your game Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 31 degrees in S/E Fairfax. Going to be interesting. Doppler is showing the freezing line running down 95 S. to about just N. of Fredericksburg. A mix line is staying steady from there East. Snow approaching from the S/W at a pretty good clip. This belongs in the other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 you would lean on the gfs ensembles if the GFS showed a big snow and the ensembles did not. I know your game Ian apparently you dont.. i said to watch friday instead of the dt nads storm before friday became interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dobie Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Sorry....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 apparently you dont.. i said to watch friday instead of the dt nads storm before friday became interesting. Hate to back you up but you most definitely said that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 apparently you dont.. i said to watch friday instead of the dt nads storm before friday became interesting. I thought Friday was the DT nads storn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 euro ens says no weekend storm. Euro cancels it's own previously scheduled weekend storm that no other model really had in the first place. Other models had this threat in the Friday time period. The Euro is struggling with this set-up and still seems too slow with the southern stream. Over the next 24 hours, we will see if the mighty Euro holds its ground or rather moves upwards a stronger Friday event. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Damn the euro, full speed ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I thought Friday was the DT nads storn i dunno.. the euro had two seperate items, the second was the one dt was keying on. i dont thnik there will be two at this pt.. one or the other, seems to lean toward the first. i guess he could claim it's the same thing but not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 18Z GFS heads toward the NAM. About 6hr diff at upper lvl makes the diff. 0Z baby 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 im pretty sure this will just end up screwing us but we gotta have hope i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 im pretty sure this will just end up screwing us but we gotta have hope i guess You suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 sne sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 You suck. it's all we got probably especially if it blows up and destroys sne but getting that 500 vort further south at verification is going to be very difficult Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I firmly believe that the American models will handle this better. We love to sh*t on the nam but it's been more right with general ideas than not. And the gfs just gave it a nod. This will be our real first potential. Mark it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 you know, when we had our historic last year, PHL had a near historic year, NYC was AN in snow and SNE had an average winter this year, everybody is doing average or above except for us at way below hate to say it, but it just ain't fair weenie rant over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 it's all we got probably especially if it blows up and destroys sne but getting that 500 vort further south at verification is going to be very difficult The GFS is going toward the NAM so we have the NAM/CMC/GFS ENS. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I guess this Friday thing is a legit threat now that all models except Euro give us some snow. Screw potential is very high, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 you know, when we had our historic last year, PHL had a near historic year, NYC was AN in snow and SNE had an average winter this year, everybody is doing average or above except for us at way below hate to say it, but it just ain't fair weenie rant over I know what you mean. Between this and the Ravens this winter sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I firmly believe that the American models will handle this better. We love to sh*t on the nam but it's been more right with general ideas than not. And the gfs just gave it a nod. This will be our real first potential. Mark it. the 00z runs tonight will be very telling right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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