PhineasC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 phineas' words of wisdom should appear again soon.. at least we jackpot on the rainstorm. You got it. This Euro run would fit the seasonal pattern quite nicely. Hard not to buy it over the silly GGEM and UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Euro ensembles? Flatter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 low goes over downtown leesburg Great....blue skies for me!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'll wait for Wes to get interested in one of these far out fantasy storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Euro ensembles? Flatter? look about the same on friday--miller b'ish. not out to weekend yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'll wait for Wes to get interested in one of these far out fantasy storms. Thread in OT: http://www.americanw...been-wondering/ Wes has been quite ill recently... in the recovering stages. Hasn't been posting because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 euro ens says no weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 euro ens says no weekend storm. Seasonal trend is killing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 euro ens says no weekend storm. Because the euro is holding back more energy in the southwest correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS 12Z op solution really isn't a huge deal ATM. A comparison of the 0-6-12Z operational runs is far far more revealing, and each run trends more amplified with the diving trough/dynamic tropopause and an eastern budge to the western trough. The final result is a better phase at 84. http://www.atmos.alb..._trend_500.html Compare at 84 hrs of the 12Z run. The12Z GFS is about 2 runs from going loco if the phase comes in better and the trough continues to nosedive S. The deep dynamic DT and a farther S solution would result in potentially tropospheric deep cyclogenesis. Positive feedback for the win--and the GFS solutioon would look awfully like the CMC with tiny changes in the placement of the western trough and eventual phase resulting in a GOM tap. GFS ensembles are way more amped than the op--and this reminds me of last storm where the GFS made slow changes to its height field even while the mean was way more amped. SREF/NAM height fields wiped the floor with the operation globals--and they are very amped here--more so than the globals. All this is suddenly making this event all the more interesting. ECM is a fat outlier--but it too has made some very positive changes with amplification. It really is the biggest outlier in its western wave--and it has a weak phase. Right now still a somewhat low probability (less than 40), but the probability is increasing rapidly for a CMC like solution. I like this explanation from over in the PHIL thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Because the euro is holding back more energy in the southwest correct? i think it's more just that the pattern isnt that good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I like this explanation from over in the PHIL thread. Of course you do it would give us a big snowstorm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i think it's more just that the pattern isnt that good Just dont see why the gfs ensembles should be discounted in favor of the euro simply because the pattern hasn't been very good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Just dont see why the gfs ensembles should be discounted in favor of the euro simply because the pattern hasn't been very good! I actually think the GFS has been better than the Euro so far. The Euro has struggled a bit on the last several storms, especially in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I actually think the GFS has been better than the Euro so far. The Euro has struggled a bit on the last several storms, especially in this range. Amazing to think it but you're right Phineas. GFS (in my mind) has done much better. In fact I'd be willing to get just a little bit excited just based on the GFS showing something and the Euro not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'd take my chances with the 84 panel nam. At least it's got moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well NAM at 84 got sorta interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'd take my chances with the 84 panel nam. At least it's got moisture. The 84h NAM looks amazing - just makes me nervous about temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well NAM at 84 got sorta interesting Crunch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg81988 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 doesn't the NAM have it too warm for snow in most of VA, especially RIC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The NAM just said "Hi GEM! Let's be fwiends!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Crunch! verbatim, if you are north of the broken precip area (say the SBY west to EZF) your temps should be OK as that solid radar signature suggests snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I hear that the Euro Ensembles say "WHAT SNOW?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I hear that the Euro Ensembles say "WHAT SNOW?" The Euro sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The Euro sucks. I agree with you. This year... blown major chunks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The NAM is advertising a storm the likes of which hasn't been seen in many years (i.e., one where Richmond actually mixes and it pays to be NW of the cities). No way it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 The Euro sucks. as many times as it has given us snow this year w/in 4 days only to have squat to show for it, screw the Euro I'll go with the GFS/NAM and figure it out from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 by the way, the SREF's looked good that came out just before the 18Z NAM so I'm not surprised at what the NAM is showing with its ensembles as support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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