Yeoman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Ya know, I actually am kinda encouraged by the GFS. I think its screwing up the southern stream here. The power of positive thinking - others around here should try it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 how does this not phase It's definitely a step closer to the phased scenario. I think we will see a phased system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yep - but I'd imagine still an in-situ cold air damming event with some adiabatic cooling given the existing cold temps, coastal low and easterly winds Right, and in these scenarios, the GFS has been underdone with the low level WAA in the past.....or at least that's my impression/recollection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Right, and in these scenarios, the GFS has been underdone with the low level WAA in the past.....or at least that's my impression/recollection. Good to know - thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On the GFS the northern stream pummels the setup. This is probably one of the two extreme possibilites. The other would be the northen stream dumps in and phases too far NW, sending a storm through the OV. Need something in the middle. That being said, maximum potential is a moderate accumulation event and most likely a light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 It's definitely a step closer to the phased scenario. I think we will see a phased system. and then its a question of, where does it phase and that's where we've been loosing this year I keep thinking that there has to be some sort of slow modification in the pattern to date but I don't know I'm hoping we do see a lot of rain tonight and tomorrow because that "might" signal a slow morphing of the pattern to something that will benefit our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 and its like freaking clockwork just when the GFS shows another system down south, the northern stream shows up again this is hrs 168-180 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_pcp168180_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Right, and in these scenarios, the GFS has been underdone with the low level WAA in the past.....or at least that's my impression/recollection. Agreed... that trend has been especially apparent over the last several months (recalling the two November severe outbreaks in the area) with systems that are in the SE and are moving N/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY STARTING OUT AS SNOW OR SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET THEN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS WARM AIR ALOFT BUT COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVENTUALLY FREEZING RAIN TURNS OVER TO RAIN LATER AT NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. NAM/SREF ARE FASTER TO HAVE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCUR BUT AM WORRIED THAT THEY ARE TOO SOON IF A NORTHERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE PERSISTS. WILL LIKELY BE SIDING WITH A SLOWER TRANSITION. GENERAL TREND FOR THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA BUT THIS IS ALSO THE AREA THAT WILL RECEIVE LOWER QPF. THEREFORE WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT ADVISORY LEVEL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. WILL AWAIT 12Z GUIDANCE TO MAKE FINAL DECISIONS ON HEADLINES AND ACCUMULATIONS.-- End Changed Discussion -- http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 and its like freaking clockwork just when the GFS shows another system down south, the northern stream shows up again this is hrs 168-180 http://www.nco.ncep....p168180_l.shtml Yup...still gives us a little snow though. Another 8 of those 2" snowfalls gets us pretty near climo for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 ukie looks like a good start at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z NAM KIAD has 0.51 accum precip with temp 31.9 at 24 hrs 12z NAM KBWI has 0.18 accum precip with temp of 29.8 at hr 18... and then at hr 24 is 34.2 with accum precip of .65. That leads me to believe the changeover is around hr hr 21 12z NAM KDCA has 0.18 accum precip with temp of 30.6 at hr 18... and then at hr 24 is 33.7 with accum precip of .60. That leads me to believe changeover is around hr 21 as well FYI -- changeover means into rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM has .19" qpf at BWI that looks to be all snow before temps head for the cr@pper and the heavy rain moves in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z NAM KIAD has 0.51 accum precip with temp 31.9 at 24 hrs you just wake up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 you just wake up? Actually yes I was just reviewing the soundings on the site you gave me. I edited in BWI/DCA after you quoted me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looking pretty good here on the ol' station: Temp: 31.4 DP: 14 Wind: ENE Pres: 1024.9 MB Should be in the M/U 20's when it starts to precipitate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looking pretty good here on the ol' station: Temp: 31.4 DP: 14 Wind: ENE Pres: 1024.9 MB Should be in the M/U 20's when it starts to precipitate. I believe each degree for us should be important for us tonight. We want that temp down to 26/27 before the DP matches it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z GGEM holds steady. has another bomb! Haven't seen the maps yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I wonder what the GGEM is smoking? I'm going to hug it for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Anybody know how to get temps for the GGEM? That bomb looks awfully close to the close in our neighborhood. Definitely goes straight into NE to rain on Boston's parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I wonder what the GGEM is smoking? I'm going to hug it for now no transfer...no northern low....just straight overrunning???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 RGEM and GGEM both seem to lean toward heavier precip tonight/tomorrow. More in the NAM camp from what I see (at least on totals). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 the 12z GEFS looks much better than 00z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I wonder what the GGEM is smoking? I'm going to hug it for now carbon copy of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I wonder what the GGEM is smoking? I'm going to hug it for now you know whats funny is last night...not one ensemble member supported its Bomb and now it shows it again. Ukie looks good too. Cant wait to see the european Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The GFS won't get the right idea until 72 hours out (or even closer in to the event). I'm not sure what the actual outcome will be, but it's certainly not what GFS is showing now. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i cant believe Loudoun County isnt at least on a WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Anybody know how to get temps for the GGEM? That bomb looks awfully close to the close in our neighborhood. Definitely goes straight into NE to rain on Boston's parade. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html We sneak out all snow... but barely. Go to hr 90 and on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html We sneak out all snow... but barely. Go to hr 90 and on According to that Ji's house stays frozen for the duration of tonight's event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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