Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 With all due respect, I would rather roll the dice on that than this jumping BS. Bring the moisture right over my house. its still the 84 hour NAM..there will be changes..for better or worse..but there will be changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 With all due respect, I would rather roll the dice on that than this jumping BS. Bring the moisture right over my house. I was not saying I agree or that this scenario is bad, just pointing out what it showed. I agree we are better off if this starts phasing early and takes a steady track with no redevelopment. However, we would need that track to be about 50 miles south of where the 12z NAM has it. Its better then the 6z so one more adjustment south and we are good. This is a very similar storm evolution to the Feb 1995 system. That was a nice 4-8" event west of DC and 6-10" around Baltimore. However, once you got south and east of 95 it was mostly rain. That system tracked over central VA and then right over ACY basically. We would need this to track about that far south of its going to be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 are you just trying to inflate your posts, because your responses are less than productive to this thread. A lot of whining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I was not saying I agree or that this scenario is bad, just pointing out what it showed. I agree we are better off if this starts phasing early and takes a steady track with no redevelopment. However, we would need that track to be about 50 miles south of where the 12z NAM has it. Its better then the 6z so one more adjustment south and we are good. This is a very similar storm evolution to the Feb 1995 system. That was a nice 4-8" event west of DC and 6-10" around Baltimore. However, once you got south and east of 95 it was mostly rain. That system tracked over central VA and then right over ACY basically. We would need this to track about that far south of its going to be rain. i have a hard time believing we will get rain this weekend. its either going to be snow or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS 0C surface temp line looks on top of I-95 at the 24hr panel. How's the new gfs at showing cad? You used to be able count on at least a few extra hours after the gfs showed us going over freezing but I don't know if that's still true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS has trended colder from the prior runs at least at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS is all frozen for Leesburg.... .12 as perhaps snow/sleet .17 as rain below 32 degrees Funny though how we went from over 2 inches yesterday to .29 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS 0C surface temp line looks on top of I-95 at the 24hr panel. yea its going to be a mess out my way tomorrow morning... and I will have to get to work because in Baltimore it will be mostly rain so probably no chance at a delay or day off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 i have a hard time believing we will get rain this weekend. its either going to be snow or not thank you for repeating JB from this morning now, how about some independent thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 are you just trying to inflate your posts, because your responses are less than productive to this thread. A lot of whining. good for us we have you to make productive posts like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i have a hard time believing we will get rain this weekend. its either going to be snow or not with no blocking and a neutral or slightly positive NAO.. and in a Nina, why would it shock you if we got rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Total precip amounts line up pretty well with the 6z GFS and are much less than what 0z showed. Also quite a bit less than the NAM (shocker). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 are you just trying to inflate your posts, because your responses are less than productive to this thread. A lot of whining. Get used to it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 thank you for repeating JB from this morning now, how about some independent thought? nothing to do with JB..i just dont see temps warm enough this weekend for rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I was not saying I agree or that this scenario is bad, just pointing out what it showed. I agree we are better off if this starts phasing early and takes a steady track with no redevelopment. However, we would need that track to be about 50 miles south of where the 12z NAM has it. Its better then the 6z so one more adjustment south and we are good. This is a very similar storm evolution to the Feb 1995 system. That was a nice 4-8" event west of DC and 6-10" around Baltimore. However, once you got south and east of 95 it was mostly rain. That system tracked over central VA and then right over ACY basically. We would need this to track about that far south of its going to be rain. I would take that track in a heartbeat. Coastal plain tracks are usually decent for us in the western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 now, how about some independent thought? He used up all of his "winter cancel" posts for the month.. fresh out of thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 nothing to do with JB..i just dont see temps warm enough this weekend for rain would be funny all the models in long range had that time frame with -24c to -28c at times over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 gfs is coming in colder for this weekend hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 gfs is coming in colder for this weekend hr 72 Significantly colder but also less juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 How's the new gfs at showing cad? You used to be able count on at least a few extra hours after the gfs showed us going over freezing but I don't know if that's still true. In actual damming scenarios, most models tend to be too aggressive in retreating the cold air....and this would likely be the case with the "new" gfs. However, this isn't exactly a classic or even hybrid CAD event..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 miller b screw job on tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 miller b screw job on tap hopefully it slams NJ/NYC/SNE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 In actual damming scenarios, most models tend to be too aggressive in retreating the cold air....and this would likely be the case with the "new" gfs. However, this isn't exactly a classic or even hybrid CAD event..... Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hopefully it slams NJ/NYC/SNE! Maine special really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Ugh...0.25" line up NE of Baltimore. 1-2" for everyone again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Ya know, I actually am kinda encouraged by the GFS. I think its screwing up the southern stream here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 From 90-96 is when the precip hits/transfers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 looks cold...i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 However, this isn't exactly a classic or even hybrid CAD event..... Yep - but I'd imagine still an in-situ cold air damming event with some adiabatic cooling given the existing cold temps, coastal low and easterly winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Ya know, I actually am kinda encouraged by the GFS. I think its screwing up the southern stream here. how does this not phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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