Ellinwood Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 when was this thread moved to the nyc/phil subforum? for 90-95% of the viewing area, tonight is a cold rain and nothing more....any front end snow or ice will be washed away of simply become a slurpee after the rain moves in This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Cmon Katie, Im not bashing the models for our lack of snow, Im simply stating the fact that they have not performed well this winter, something no one can dispute...Again, tell me where I slammed the programmers, it might have been implied indirectly something I did not intend to do, but that was not the point of the post. "A disgrace to our intelligence" ...Is slamming the programmers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not meant to be an insult to people but Im calling it like I see it..maybe its because of the La Nina winter, but models really have been terrible this winter and you cant deny that. They have only been bad for our area. They've been pretty good down south and up north and I don't even pay too close attentention in the midwest and west. Miller B's are inherently difficult (if not impossible) to forecast when how and where the transfer takes place. Lot's of interaction with northern and southern stream vorts this year too. Just a couple of hours of difference means large changes in the overall solution. Have the models been bad for our area? Yup. Is this totally acceptable? Yup. Last year was mostly Miller A's. Models do much better with Miller A's because of the complicated N/S interaction is mostly off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 No offense, but there has been plenty of guidance that has been plenty good this winter...you just have to understand what to use, how, and when. Perhaps you need a quick refresher on chaos, weather, and the limits of predictability. Tell that to the NWS who have been wrong numerous times on snow forecasts...along with everyone else of course..I understand the use of guidance and its just guidance...but its been pretty crappy guidance this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Guys, I don't know about the 84 hour NAM..anybody kinda nervous about where the low is and temps? I mean, its much different than the GFS, and that's great... Yeah. I would think we need that to dig a couple-hundred miles further south. I'm not sure we'd love the extrapolated NAM based on that 84h panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Tell that to the NWS who have been wrong numerous times on snow forecasts...along with everyone else of course..I understand the use of guidance and its just guidance...but its been pretty crappy guidance this year. you just dont know when to quit do you??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I like the fact that even though the total precip totals have wavered up and down for the most part both the NAM and GFS have been showing a nice period of frozen precip for my backyard for some time now....I would suspect that this ends up as nothing too difficult to manage but if my house happens to get a period of decent accumulating snow/sleet then I will consider this non event a win and at that point will move on to the next opportunity. For those of you that get just plain rain...I apologize....and if I get just plain rain.....I'll take it...my driveway needs a good warshin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 "A disgrace to our intelligence" ...Is slamming the programmers. Poor choice of words then because its not what I meant to do..Again its kind of hard to get your exact point accross over a forum, I do not mean to slam the forecasters or the programmers, they can only do what they can do and they do the best they can, but the guidance has not been good this witner, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Guys, I don't know about the 84 hour NAM..anybody kinda nervous about where the low is and temps? I mean, its much different than the GFS, and that's great... Perhaps. The 6z ensembles have one member that looks pretty close to the 84hr NAM. That member gives us rain as the storm basically moves overhead and then turns it to snow on the backside (we know how well that works out usually). Edit...one difference though is that ensemble member has the whole system strong it appears. Sub-1004mb vs just sub-1008 on the NAM. Not sure if that will really change things though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 They have only been bad for our area. They've been pretty good down south and up north and I don't even pay too close attentention in the midwest and west. Miller B's are inherently difficult (if not impossible) to forecast when how and where the transfer takes place. Lot's of interaction with northern and southern stream vorts this year too. Just a couple of hours of difference means large changes in the overall solution. Have the models been bad for our area? Yup. Is this totally acceptable? Yup. Last year was mostly Miller A's. Models do much better with Miller A's because of the complicated N/S interaction is mostly off the table. And I understand that...but its been tough to forecast based on our guidance this year....my frst post was probably an overreaction and a bad choice of words, I apologize for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Guys, I don't know about the 84 hour NAM..anybody kinda nervous about where the low is and temps? I mean, its much different than the GFS, and that's great... I hope temps ease off a little. Maybe that will let it come more north? I can easily see this thing splitting and then a low spinning up off the VA coast to slam NYC and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM sim/rad is pushing a tongue of moisture east toward central VA I like that look, but wish it was colder that northern energy wants to take over and do a repeat on us please, let us catch a break for once this year a tongue of moisture on the 84th hour nam panel man we need some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I hope temps ease off a little. Maybe that will let it come more north? I can easily see this thing splitting and then a low spinning up off the VA coast to slam NYC and SNE. every storm is miller b this year right>??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 And I understand that...but its been tough to forecast based on our guidance this year....my frst post was probably an overreaction and a bad choice of words, I apologize for that. just quit while your behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 CLIMOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WE don't get snow because of CLIMOOOOOOOOOOOOO Geesh, I wish people would get this already. Stop bashing the damn models for our lack of snow this winter. Either accept the fact that we are in a La Nina where Climo is not on our side, or STFU. This makes no sense. I guess that's why the south has record snowfall? Its climo stupid! And thats why right across the bay bridge they've had like 6-10" more that we have? It's climo stupid! And thats why we have below average temps. It's la nina stupid! Makes no sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 just quit while your behind and before he gets banned like on the accuweather forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This makes no sense. I guess that's why the south has record snowfall? Its climo stupid! And thats why right across the bay bridge they've had like 6-10" more that we have? It's climo stupid! And thats why we have below average temps. It's la nina stupid! Makes no sense to me. Agreed, theres not much basis behind that post, Granted we usually dont do as well in La Nina winters but the fact that our eastern shore has an average-above average winter and the deep south has an above average winter probably doesnt agree with the its climo statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This makes no sense. I guess that's why the south has record snowfall? Its climo stupid! And thats why right across the bay bridge they've had like 6-10" more that we have? It's climo stupid! And thats why we have below average temps. It's la nina stupid! Makes no sense to me. Cool story. If you wish to discuss how La Nina is a joke for places that is not here - then please do so. Otherwise, deal with the fact that climo is not on OUR side (not the souths side, or the eastern shores side, but OUR side) this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Allow one moment of discourse... Crap look at the weenie radar and tell me why that's going to be mostly rain.....rats!!! Ok I'm done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Agreed, theres not much basis behind that post, Granted we usually dont do as well in La Nina winters but the fact that our eastern shore has an average-above average winter and the deep south has an above average winter probably doesnt agree with the its climo statement. AGAIN go to the SOUTH if you want to talk about how climo is a joke for them. THAT IS NOT HERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So anyway, back to the NAM...I did a loop at that low is gonna cut, unless we get some redevelopment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 AGAIN go to the SOUTH if you want to talk about how climo is a joke for them. THAT IS NOT HERE. Yeah but our Eastern shore is...and he also did bring up a good point about the below average temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah but our Eastern shore is...and he also did bring up a good point about the below average temps. I don't really care. Go bash some models or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW A WEDGE OF COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE TO FUNNEL DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVANCES TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE /CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF COAST/. MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE DRY ALBEIT OVERCAST. AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN...LIGHT PRECIP MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS/SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE LIGHT FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IF IT TURNS OUT THAT ICE CRYSTALS ARE INITIALLY LACKING IN THE CLOUDS. BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY STARTING OUT AS SNOW OR SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET THEN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS WARM AIR ALOFT BUT COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVENTUALLY FREEZING RAIN TURNS OVER TO RAIN LATER AT NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. NAM/SREF ARE FASTER TO HAVE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCUR BUT AM WORRIED THAT THEY ARE TOO SOON IF A NORTHERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE PERSISTS. WILL LIKELY BE SIDING WITH A SLOWER TRANSITION. GENERAL TREND FOR THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA BUT THIS IS ALSO THE AREA THAT WILL RECEIVE LOWER QPF. THEREFORE WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT ADVISORY LEVEL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. WILL AWAIT 12Z GUIDANCE TO MAKE FINAL DECISIONS ON HEADLINES AND ACCUMULATIONS.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So anyway, back to the NAM...I did a loop at that low is gonna cut, unless we get some redevelopment I did the same....if it cuts it will be right over us it looks like to me...if it redevelops from that spot...game over. I'm hoping for some sort of overrunning event and will deal with temps as it gets here...redevelopment can kiss my as s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So anyway, back to the NAM...I did a loop at that low is gonna cut, unless we get some redevelopment the 6z NAM cut...DGEX took the low over Pitt then across AVP and just north of NYC. It was all rain anywhere south of the PA/MD line. Heavy snow for Bradford PA to Albany to Vermont and NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So anyway, back to the NAM...I did a loop at that low is gonna cut, unless we get some redevelopment I would rather it come right at us than rely on redevelopment which will never work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Allow one moment of discourse... Crap look at the weenie radar and tell me why that's going to be mostly rain.....rats!!! Ok I'm done I know that you were being facetious and rhetorical, but watch how fast the northern high sprints out to sea in the 12 and 18 panels (at least it has the last few runs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 the 6z NAM cut...DGEX took the low over Pitt then across AVP and just north of NYC. It was all rain anywhere south of the PA/MD line. Heavy snow for Bradford PA to Albany to Vermont and NH. With all due respect, I would rather roll the dice on that than this jumping BS. Bring the moisture right over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS 0C surface temp line looks on top of I-95 at the 24hr panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.