MD Snow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 what are the chances that the piece of energy at 48 hrs on the nam falls as snow for DCA/BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 what are the chances that the piece of energy at 48 hrs on the nam falls as snow for DCA/BWI? about the same chance of snow falling when surface temps are at 7C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 what are the chances that the piece of energy at 48 hrs on the nam falls as snow for DCA/BWI? Who cares its very light precip anyway but Ji is rigjht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM 3hr Snowfall maps for our area, hrs 24 and 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM 3hr Snowfall maps for our area, hrs 24 and 27. That wont verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Classic DC snow hole, possibly being an icehole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 That wont verify. Probably not, I'd poop myself if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Probably not, I'd poop myself if it did. models are so terrible its not even funny..its really a disgrace to our intelligence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I hope we get some snow before the ice. It makes it much easier to clean that mess up. Roads could be horrible for tomorrow mornings commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 That wont verify. And you know that how? BTW, your forecast from Friday is looking a little iffy. Here it is. For where Im from? Monday cloudy mon night showers after midnight, Tuesday-showers in the morning-more steady rain in the afternoon tapering shortly after sunset, getting cold behind the front for tuesday night, watch for slick spots wed morning as a little black ice might be possible if breezy conditions dont dry out the puddles etc Do you just forecast based on going with the worst case scenario, in other words the solution nobody wants? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think NAM is going to phase as northern stream is behind southern energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 And you know that how? BTW, your forecast from Friday is looking a little iffy. Here it is. For where Im from? Monday cloudy mon night showers after midnight, Tuesday-showers in the morning-more steady rain in the afternoon tapering shortly after sunset, getting cold behind the front for tuesday night, watch for slick spots wed morning as a little black ice might be possible if breezy conditions dont dry out the puddles etc Do you just forecast based on going with the worst case scenario, in other words the solution nobody wants? First of all, Why would someone WANT ice...if your a snowlover fine, but ice is a whole different story, if your wishing for ice your a pretty sorry person, now no I dont go with the worst solution I go with what I think..Unbiased, I love snow like the next person here but I go with what I go with...by the way when I posted that you said sounds good..At that time thats what it looks like...now my area does look to get SOME ice but should be plain rain by sunrise...if you think Im getting 3 inches of snow then your a goof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12zNAM at 78 6z GFS at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 i think mitcnick said 50 degrees is a good sign for the weekend storm? I did? I said that it wasn't getting very cold behind tonight/tomorrow's storm which suggests another is on its heals good or bad for us is unknown this early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 whatever the NAM is doing is completely different from the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not sure why LWX is on the rain bandwagon for romorrow. Looks like any precip is outta here early AM. 12Z NAM at 84hrs would be a good hit, as the phased trof is still slightly positive as it approaches the lakes. The storm would move ENE. Not much wiggle room if the northern stream energy becomes a bully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Classic DC snow hole, possibly being an icehole. Are you calling me an icehole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 models are so terrible its not even funny..its really a disgrace to our intelligence. Posts like this are an insult to a lot of very smart people that work very hard to develop and maintain these things. Go read the pinned thread on models and learn how to use guidance instead of trashing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM sim/rad is pushing a tongue of moisture east toward central VA I like that look, but wish it was colder that northern energy wants to take over and do a repeat on us please, let us catch a break for once this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM seems to be way closer to a phase than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 First of all, Why would someone WANT ice...if your a snowlover fine, but ice is a whole different story, if your wishing for ice your a pretty sorry person, now no I dont go with the worst solution I go with what I think..Unbiased, I love snow like the next person here but I go with what I go with...by the way when I posted that you said sounds good..At that time thats what it looks like...now my area does look to get SOME ice but should be plain rain by sunrise...if you think Im getting 3 inches of snow then your a goof I don't have a vendetta against you. I just think a forecast call like "that won't verify" needs some basis. Gut feelings, hunches, general negativity, none of that is support for a weather forecast. There are models that show snow and ice for a good portion of the area. All he did was post maps from one of those models. That model "sees" a scenario in which those maps could verify. At least that scenario has "some" backing. To just come out with what will or won't happen with nothing to back it up just isn't the way to go, IMO. I hope you wake up to 3 inches of snow. One, so I can rub it in, and two, so you get some snow to enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Posts like this are an insult to a lot of very smart people that work very hard to develop and maintain these things. Go read the pinned thread on models and learn how to use guidance instead of trashing it. Not meant to be an insult to people but Im calling it like I see it..maybe its because of the La Nina winter, but models really have been terrible this winter and you cant deny that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM seems to be way closer to a phase than the GFS. I think a 3-6 inch snowstorm this weekend is likely. 1-3 25% 3-6 30% more than 6 10% screwhole-35% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not meant to be an insult to people but Im calling it like I see it..maybe its because of the La Nina winter, but models really have been terrible this winter and you cant deny that. CLIMOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WE don't get snow because of CLIMOOOOOOOOOOOOO Geesh, I wish people would get this already. Stop bashing the damn models for our lack of snow this winter. Either accept the fact that we are in a La Nina where Climo is not on our side, or STFU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not meant to be an insult to people but Im calling it like I see it..maybe its because of the La Nina winter, but models really have been terrible this winter and you cant deny that. well you dont see very well, do you!!!!Slamming the programmers, who probably have doctorates in physics is not the answer,. You sure as hell couldn't do any better.!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I don't have a vendetta against you. I just think a forecast call like "that won't verify" needs some basis. Gut feelings, hunches, general negativity, none of that is support for a weather forecast. There are models that show snow and ice for a good portion of the area. All he did was post maps from one of those models. That model "sees" a scenario in which those maps could verify. At least that scenario has "some" backing. To just come out with what will or won't happen with nothing to back it up just isn't the way to go, IMO. I hope you wake up to 3 inches of snow. One, so I can rub it in, and two, so you get some snow to enjoy. The fact that we dont have any advisories yet while places to our north do, should be a red fag to these colder, more extreme winter solution models...Now I do suspect with the afternoon update most of us will see an advisory (especially you) but this is not going to be a major winter event (specifically for me) The fact that models have trended with the higher precip amounts is not good for winter precip for two reasons...1. we all know ice accumulates best when precip is light and 2. when the heavier precip surgers northward so will the temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Guys, I don't know about the 84 hour NAM..anybody kinda nervous about where the low is and temps? I mean, its much different than the GFS, and that's great... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 CLIMOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WE don't get snow because of CLIMOOOOOOOOOOOOO Geesh, I wish people would get this already. Stop bashing the damn models for our lack of snow this winter. Either accept the fact that we are in a La Nina where Climo is not on our side, or STFU. well you dont see very well, do you!!!!Slamming the programmers, who probably have doctorates in physics is not the answer,. You sure as hell couldn't do any better.!!! Cmon Katie, Im not bashing the models for our lack of snow, Im simply stating the fact that they have not performed well this winter, something no one can dispute...Again, tell me where I slammed the programmers, it might have been implied indirectly something I did not intend to do, but that was not the point of the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 when was this thread moved to the nyc/phil subforum? for 90-95% of the viewing area, tonight is a cold rain and nothing more....any front end snow or ice will be washed away or simply become a slurpee after the rain moves in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not meant to be an insult to people but Im calling it like I see it..maybe its because of the La Nina winter, but models really have been terrible this winter and you cant deny that. No offense, but there has been plenty of guidance that has been plenty good this winter...you just have to understand what to use, how, and when. Perhaps you need a quick refresher on chaos, weather, and the limits of predictability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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