NeedaSnowday Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I understand your frustration but it is ONLY January 16th, especially in a Nina winter we have at least 2 months left to get a significant snowstorm and i firmly believe you will get your one big snow before winter is over. Hell if the Euro is right it might come this Saturday night if not i am sure it will come in the second half of February or early March. If i am wrong you can remind me of it at the end of winter and i will take it like a man. So, basically this winter is like a Ravens season.. one bad half .....one good half? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looks like 12z GFS suggests .2" ice at IAD.. just over .1 at DCA More likely than yday but maybe still high... Especially in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 More likely than yday but maybe still high... Especially in DC. http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KIAD http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KDCA Although note the wind direction... N and NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS gives you 1"....congrats I just want one 3"+ storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KIAD http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KDCA Although note the wind direction... N and NE im not saying you're lying, i just think it's perhaps too much... plus i doubt everything that falls becomes ice, some runs off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I just want one 3"+ storm Move to Baltimore . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 So, basically this winter is like a Ravens season.. one bad half .....one good half? Exactly , i am going to cry now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 im not saying you're lying, i just think it's perhaps too much... plus i doubt everything that falls becomes ice, some runs off. Perhaps. It certainly will be fun to watch us all scream and yell about each tenth of a degree tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It has been a long time since I can remember when ice built up on the roads...decks, trees, hand rails...different story It really all depends on if the road is elevated or not, whether it's treated or not, and whether we're talking about 28 F or 31 F . A trace of ice from light freezing rain in the middle of the afternoon on 2/12/08 (not exactly a low sun angle situation) completely shut down the ramps in the Mixing Bowl after tons of accidents and cars skidding into the barriers.... I wish I could dig up that thread from Eastern. VDOT of course blamed the weathermen even though a WWA was in effect for freezing rain. The roads will be well treated for this event, though, so it's not going to bad on the highways no matter what falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I will go for my bold call here. I think we will see a WWA out of this for something like up to an inch of snow/sleet then around a tenth ice of ice I-95 N/W. Maybe closer to two tenths of an inch of ice as you get west of the Blue Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I just want one 3"+ storm If things are different because of the NAO being positive perhaps the GFS SE bias is in play and this thing will trend North a bit....bang there's your 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It really all depends on if the road is elevated or not, whether it's treated or not, and whether we're talking about 28 F or 31 F . A trace of ice from light freezing rain in the middle of the afternoon on 2/12/08 (not exactly a low sun angle situation) completely shut down the ramps in the Mixing Bowl after tons of accidents and cars skidding into the barriers.... I wish I could dig up that thread from Eastern. VDOT of course blamed the weathermen even though a WWA was in effect for freezing rain. The roads will be well treated for this event, though, so it's not going to bad on the highways no matter what falls. Yeah, that was the Super Tuesday primary day event...I remember the poll closing times were extended due to it. In fairness, that was an event where we were expected to go above freezing but never really did. A WWA was in effect, but it was later upgraded to an ice storm warning at around 6/6:30 in the evening once it became evident that we would have a hard time rising much above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 You may be right, I guess my frustration is that usually around here when it is not snowing it tends to be warm. One thing I like about this area is that we do not usually have to suffer through many cold/dry winters like this. Up north they are much more common, especially in the midwest. Here its usually feast or famine but the famine at least comes with warm/nice weather. I can at least get outside and play tennis, hike, bike, or golf. This pattern is just miserable. Its not just the lack of snow. Does anyone discuss models in this forum or is just a never ending b**ch fest about something we have no control over? It's sad when you have to go to the NYC forum to get the latest as painful as it is to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yeah, that was the Super Tuesday primary day event...I remember the poll closing times were extended due to it. In fairness, that was an event where we were expected to go above freezing but never really did. A WWA was in effect, but it was later upgraded to an ice storm warning at around 6/6:30 in the evening once it became evident that we would have a hard time rising much above freezing. Yup-- that was the last widespread 1/4"+ ice accumulations on branches, etc., that we've had. The crippling of rush hour traffic took place way before that, though, with just the onset of the precipitation. It really was a turning point, leading to what we see now with almost neurotic pre-treating of roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 the euro looks pretty mild.. on the maps im not sure the freezing line ever gets to IAD tho maybe right to there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 the euro looks pretty mild.. on the maps im not sure the freezing line ever gets to IAD tho maybe right to there Thanks for the analysis.. you have access to the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 .25"+ to Blue Ridge, .5"+ bay and east, 1"+ se va, southern MD, southern De. at least the precip hole is further southwest than recently... central nc/sw va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Thanks for the analysis.. you have access to the euro? i do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 the lows this yr cant throw precip back to save their lives. this thing is almost sitting on the southern tip of md in the delmarva at 54 and precip barely goes west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 the lows this yr cant throw precip back to save their lives. this thing is almost sitting on the southern tip of md in the delmarva at 54 and precip barely goes west. A lot of the gfs ens say that it will be much more wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Exactly , i am going to cry now. Sorry... am miserable... need wintry weather to cheer me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 man lwx is going way cold fri night and sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 the lows this yr cant throw precip back to save their lives. this thing is almost sitting on the southern tip of md in the delmarva at 54 and precip barely goes west. As long as the track is somewhat favorable, the QPF output is somewhat less relevant. (?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Has the Euro lost the Friday storm yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Accuweather is calling for .4 inches of ice. Seems high compared to the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Has the Euro lost the Friday storm yet? Looks like it. EURO is leaving energy behind again... it did decide to make a MECS late in its run last night BTW for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 114 snow into central va & dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 euro a bit north thru 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 .25" across southern va.. moved north 100 mi or so? flurries around dc mainly. cutoff looks like river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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