timstobrazil Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 one thing looks for certian, that it is going to get cold after this event passes, but of course most likely with no moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 one thing looks for certian, that it is going to get cold after this event passes, but of course most likely with no moisture I don't think its gets as cold as the models have been predicting, as in single digit low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not to sound too optimistic, but the GFS ensembles have a pretty strong signal of a much more significant event for later in the week. Don't throw the towel in just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I don't think its gets as cold as the models have been predicting, as in single digit low no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 one thing looks for certian, that it is going to get cold after this event passes, but of course most likely with no moisture This supposed January cold spell has been modelled for the last two or three weeks, and the models have done no better on that than they have with storms. Not that I'm complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not to sound too optimistic, but the GFS ensembles have a pretty strong signal of a much more significant event for later in the week. Don't throw the towel in just yet. mjo will be in our favor (or should be) so that may be the reason behind their look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 RUC looks cold[er] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not to sound too optimistic, but the GFS ensembles have a pretty strong signal of a much more significant event for later in the week. Don't throw the towel in just yet. 6z ensemble mean has the .5" QPF (24hr total) line just NE of DC at 00z on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 6z ensemble mean has the .5" QPF (24hr total) line just NE of DC at 00z on Saturday. and so there we have it another modeled "storm" with the precip maxes to the east and NE of DCA/BWI good luck to all of us with that one over time it will slowly move NE just like all the rest of them have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 there are some southern solutions that most likely wont pan out http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zf102.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 there are some southern solutions that most likely wont pan out http://raleighwx.ame...rs/06zf102.html I would say Most of the Members give us at least a good snowstorm 3-6 inches..some more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Here is some quick analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Here is some quick analysis where is his red tag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 JB this morning going for the stronger storm option. Also says 3-6 inches 50 miles either line of Winchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 where is his red tag? agreed that might be his best ever analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 9z SREF gives DC and points east .25" of QPF with temps sub-freezing at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 JB this morning going for the stronger storm option. Also says 3-6 inches 50 miles either line of Winchester Since I'm in Winchester, can I take both sides and double down? BTW, I'm liking the NAM right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Need to see the whole profile, but 12z NAM looks like snow to start for DC and Balt and the burbs. Maybe 1-2" to start? Anybody got the profile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Need to see the whole profile, but 12z NAM looks like snow to start for DC and Balt and the burbs. Maybe 1-2" to start? Anybody got the profile? 850 line retreats quicky north at 30 hours...faster than the data last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 850 line retreats quicky north at 30 hours...faster than the data last night First batch of precip is over by then though Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM gives Dulles .16 qpf with 850 temps below zero and then .35 qpf with surface temps at 32 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 JYO and Winchester stay frozen for most of the event...temps between 30-31. JYO gets more snow cause more precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Need to see the whole profile, but 12z NAM looks like snow to start for DC and Balt and the burbs. Maybe 1-2" to start? Anybody got the profile? 25, athletic, and wants a man that's strong but not afraid to cry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 850 line retreats quicky north at 30 hours...faster than the data last night 18hr panel has 0.1"+ of QPF with 850 temps sub freezing and (at least) 500mb thicknesses looking good. I need to see the profile to see if the 850-700mb layer is also cold, if not, it looks like sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 25, athletic, and wants a man that's strong but not afraid to cry Had I been infected with the ghey, I'd be very excited right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 JB this morning going for the stronger storm option. Also says 3-6 inches 50 miles either line of Winchester shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The NAM is at least interesting for a period tonight....that's a change for our weather. 50 degrees on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The NAM is at least interesting for a period tonight....that's a change for our weather. 50 degrees on Wednesday? i think mitcnick said 50 degrees is a good sign for the weekend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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