Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 156 low east of 70W.. just north of east straight line from where it was right off sc/nc border last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 156 low east of 70W.. just north of east straight line from where it was right off sc/nc border last run Oh well, not to worry. We'll have a whole new variety of solutions tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 and that was 144 this run btw.. 156 last run. the rest was right though, i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 150 is the facepalm comparo back to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Oh well, not to worry. We'll have a whole new variety of solutions tomorrow. I'm not worried about 0Z showing even worse solutions. I'm totally prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Our best hope is to have the northern energy phase with the s/w moving out of the rockies, even if it means we have to grin and bear some sleet.... if everything is unphased and stretched out we're toast. The good news is that this is a day 4 event and not a day 7 event.. .so not long to go to get an idea of what's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 weak low south of sne at 108... whole dc area .1+.. ric snowhole more southern energy crusing east from la area On that note, it's time for bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 We need to give it up. It's going to snow when we least expect it, probably Easter Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 basically no precip in the east with the dt/nads event.. .1" for the outer banks and sprinkles for the coast to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 it's got a nice bowling ball coming through northern new mexico at 168 that wasnt there eaelier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Precip much? ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 303 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011 VAZ053-171200- FAIRFAX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIRFAX 303 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011 .REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .TODAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...FREEZING RAIN. A CHANCE OF SNOW OR SLEET IN THE EVENING... THEN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 6z NAM at 24 looks very interesting.... 850 0c line just south of DCA.... nice omegas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Now we have a very wet NAM 36 hr precip total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hr 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hr 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Station ID: KJYO Lat: 39.08 Long: -77.56 NAM Model Run: 6Z JAN 17, 2011 Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr [b]24hr 30hr[/b] 36hr 42hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1010.0 1011.2 1009.5 1008.6 1005.4 998.8 995.9 994.9 Mean SLP (mb): 1025.1 1027.2 1025.2 1023.9 1020.6 1014.2 1010.5 1009.5 2m agl Tmp (F): 23.4 22.6 30.8 27.6 [b]27.9 30.6[/b] 36.8 35.2 2m agl Dewpt(F): 14.4 14.2 19.8 23.1 26.5 29.7 33.1 34.1 2m agl RH (%): 68 70 63 83 94 96 86 96 10m agl Dir: 23 50 129 111 44 358 335 266 10m agl Spd(kt): 4 6 7 7 7 10 8 3 3hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 [b]0.08 0.10[/b] 0.00 0.00 http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KJYO.txt http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KIAD.txt -- .22 QPF, through 30 below freezing http://68.226.77.253/text/meso/NAM_KDCA.txt -- not exactly sure what precip at 24. Surface temp is 30... but there is a warm layer between 850-950 mb. However, there are good omegas/UVV's... so i can't tell if this is very wet snow or freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Everyone is focused on the ice but I think there is going to be a pretty good, quick, thump snow for a few hours tomorrow night between 95 and 81 in northern VA and MD. Profiles are very isothermal right around 32* for a time as heavy precip moves in just NW of 95. It wouldn't surprise me to see some spots get a quick 3-4" of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Everyone is focused on the ice but I think there is going to be a pretty good, quick, thump snow for a few hours tomorrow night between 95 and 81 in northern VA and MD. Profiles are very isothermal right around 32* for a time as heavy precip moves in just NW of 95. It wouldn't surprise me to see some spots get a quick 3-4" of wet snow. How does 84nam look to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 How does 84nam look to you? It is much closer to the GGEM then the GFS. The northern energy is behind the southern energy, and that is good. However, everything is further north then the GGEM by about 100 miles. If this translates east then we would have precip type problems. What is not known yet on the NAM is how much the northern stream is going to dig and that would make all the difference. The developing storm is much more northern dominated on the NAM and that can be bad if the northern jet does not dig enough. It might, but the trend this year is for it not too. Its really hard to extrapolate though, I would really like to see the next frame to be able to tell where it is going. If the northern stream continues to dig then I would feel a lot better. I guess in an hour we will see the DGEX and I suppose that is like an extension of the NAM although it incorporates some GFS input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 How does 84nam look to you? DGEX is out, it takes the low over Pittsburgh Northern branch doesnt dig enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 split the difference between the GFS and the NAM and you get the GGEM solution... I wouldnt worry about it yet Ji, models are having a hard time getting a 24 hour forecast right this year, doubt they can come close at 100 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 6z gfs looks like a decent cold frontal passage for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looking over the 00ZGFS ensemble members and what I see for Friday is pretty encouraging. Has 5 members that have a storm running up the east coast. The other members are all over the place. Think that may be a pretty good signal that the GFS is starting to see the possibility of a storm in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 06Z GFS shows most if not all the precip for tonights event will be rain except for far northern and western areas of the mid atlantic. Nam looks better with it showing potential for a short period of time for frozen precip for a wider area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The best I see out of tonight's event is maybe a quick dusting to an inch north and west of the cities. Think those in the corridor from Richmond, DC to Balt have a shot at freezing rain for several hours until the heavier precip comes in and drags down the warm air from above. Would love to be wrong but can't see how we can over come marginal temps at best on the surface with easterly winds at the lower levels of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 As I predicted, our overrunning has once again turned into a thread the needle Miller B phasing screwjob. Give up now. The energy will never go far enough south. Congrats ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 As I predicted, our overrunning has once again turned into a thread the needle Miller B phasing screwjob. Give up now. The energy will never go far enough south. Congrats ORH. it has become all very predictable at this point in the winter no matter what the computers show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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