Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 it basically takes the northern vort that punts the overruning potential on 0z gfs and makes it into something crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 better hope the ggem is wrong or sne is going to get another giant snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 it basically takes the northern vort that punts the overruning potential on 0z gfs and makes it into something crazy its about timing, if that northern stream vort is behind the souther stream it is good, and creates ridging in front... if the northern stream is in front it acts to shunt everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 better hope the ggem is wrong or sne is going to get another giant snowstorm GGEM acually keeps NW of DC all snow. The line on the GGEM site is slightly north of ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 In summary If the S/W Is slow like the ECMWF we get a SECS Fast like the GGEM, we get a hex In the middle like the rest of Guidance we get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If the Euro bails tonight, we should all bail from the boards for the next two weeks and reconvene Feb. 1 and be like the Ground Hog -- decide then whether there will be six more weeks of winter or declare an early spring after a cold, snowless winter and put us out of misery once and for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 In summary If the S/W Is slow like the ECMWF we get a SECS Fast like the GGEM, we get a hex In the middle like the rest of Guidance we get I'd rather have a HECS. We've been hexed enough already this winter. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 In a winter that is featuring below average temperatures and coastal storm tracks you'd have to believe one of them is going to get us. Perhaps next weekend is the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 it basically takes the northern vort that punts the overruning potential on 0z gfs and makes it into something crazy The GFS 250 miles further southwest with the northern stream than it was on 12z. If it trends that way it's going to show a phase like the GGEM by 18z tomorrow. But the trend is sometimes not your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 euro looks colder for the yoda ice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 euro looks colder for the yoda ice event This is the 0Z Run for Jan 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 32F line over central loudoun at 12z.. ~15" has fallen in that timeframe to western part of county then quickly diminishing west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'd think the storm would come out faster this run.... this run is not as dug into the SW as 12Z (day 4) was. But who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 84 looks like it would want to send the overrunning stuff our way on 500 but the northern stream is stronger and the southern stuff is probably a smidge weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 looks like the split is threatening at 96.. southern escapes south while northern stream powers up a bit to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 84 looks like it would want to send the overrunning stuff our way on 500 but the northern stream is stronger and the southern stuff is probably a smidge weaker There isnt much on the GGEM at 84 yet either...it starts to develop right after that. Curious if the euro holds onto its idea of holding energy back or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 light snow makes it over the apps at 102 for dc area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 There isnt much on the GGEM at 84 yet either...it starts to develop right after that. Curious if the euro holds onto its idea of holding energy back or not. euro had two distinct entities earleir, but it sorta looks like it might try to blow a miller b soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 weak low south of sne at 108... whole dc area .1+.. ric snowhole more southern energy crusing east from la area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Miller B shall not be mentioned in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 euro had two distinct entities earleir, but it sorta looks like it might try to blow a miller b soon ehh thats probably the beginning of the end for us. Even the GGEM while it looks amazing is not far from being another screw job for our area as the H5 track is a little north of ideal. What is totally amazing is no matter how things look 10 days out they all evolve towards the same crap as we move towards the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 first low much stronger near new england.. may hurt us with the main event the euro had earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm an idiot for staying up for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 first low much stronger near new england.. may hurt us with the main event the euro had earlier? Is the euro holding back any energy for a second event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Tombo said some energy back in TX @ 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Trended toward the GFS, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Is the euro holding back any energy for a second event? a little, looks like it's going to be ots at 126 but it's maybe a bit early still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Maybe we can get clipper to run a good track after the phantom arctic invasion paralyzes DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 500 maps big step down from earlier at 126/132... low off se at 132 but i dont know how it turns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 yeah it's pretty ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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