aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Damn.. I'm 51 if you take I-66. To be fair that is a pretty straight boring drive....but as the crow flies you might make it...enjoy your 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Just like we got a big storm in Dec i should be allowed 50-100 miles 4 weeks out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 cold air does NOT seem to want to invade after the storm leaves at the end of this run that often signals a 2nd storm on its heals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Just like we got a big storm in Dec Hey he was right about everybody on the east coast except for a 100 mile area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Either the NAM screwed up the 850's, or it screwed up at the Surface. Probably a bit of both considering it tends to overblow QPF in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i should be allowed 50-100 miles 4 weeks out Hey he was right about everybody on the east coast except for a 100 mile area . Pretty funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Everybody's 2m temps aren't above freezing at least through Tuesday, mid-morning. I'll worry about the 60 hour time frame later. By the way, where's all this surface warmth coming from anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 cold air does NOT seem to want to invade after the storm leaves at the end of this run that often signals a 2nd storm on its heals looks like a nice setup for overrunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 if the gfs comes in colder it might have merit. otherwise it has little continuity behind it and is probably a burp of some sort. i mean, yeah.. it's going to take a heck of a lot to get me excited imby for this event but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Everybody's 2m temps aren't above freezing at least through Tuesday, mid-morning. I'll worry about the 60 hour time frame later. By the way, where's all this surface warmth coming from anyway? Exactly, i think its a bunch of BS, don't worry the GFS will show a nice surface temp depiction IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 if the gfs comes in colder it might have merit. otherwise it has little continuity behind it and is probably a burp of some sort. i mean, yeah.. it's going to take a heck of a lot to get me excited imby for this event but still. stfu Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 looks like a nice setup for overrunning the friday event is where it's at. unless it misses us or the weekend event is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 stfu Wes I was about to ask where the real Wes is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I was about to ask where the real Wes is? probably so unimpressed by this it is not worth posting about, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 quick note: most people focus on model's inability to accurately represent CAD...but another thing you must consider is that models also have trouble accurately representing the downward mixing of the warm layer in moderate to heavy qpf scenarios.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 quick note: most people focus on model's inability to accurately represent CAD...but another thing you must consider is that models also have trouble accurately representing the downward mixing of the warm layer in moderate to heavy qpf scenarios.... interesting you say that the IAD skewt shows a warm layer, but not that bad, at IAD at 33 hrs and 36hrs around 900-975 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 interesting you say that the IAD skewt shows a warm layer, but not that bad, at IAD at 33 hrs and 36hrs around 900-975 mb p.s. skewts suggest all snow through 30 hrs at IAD and at least part of the next 3 hours IF NAM verifies, 3" is entirely possible on this run at IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i've gotten burned a couple of times in these type of events....marginal ice events are trouble interesting you say that the IAD skewt shows a warm layer, but not that bad, at IAD at 33 hrs and 36hrs around 900-975 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 p.s. skewts suggest all snow through 30 hrs at IAD and at least part of the next 3 hours IF NAM verifies, 3" is entirely possible on this run at IAD I'll take it and be thrilled! Will more than double my total snow fall for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 p.s. skewts suggest all snow through 30 hrs at IAD and at least part of the next 3 hours IF NAM verifies, 3" is entirely possible on this run at IAD Can you link that for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --FOR TONIGHT...HAVE SLGT/CHC POPS IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SW PORTION OF CW ACROSS WEST CENTRAL VA FOR FRZG DRIZZLE FOR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCAL 4KM WRF-ARW...3KM HRRR AND SREF...ALONG WITH LATEST 00Z/17 NAM...ALL SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AREAS TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SE LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE PROGGED BY THE MODEL TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE NO ICE CRYSTALS...AND ANY PRECIP WOULD FALL IN FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE COLD. BEST TIMES FOR FRZG DRIZZLE ARE BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 15Z. STILL...CONFIDENCE IN GETTING MEASURABLE PRECIP OVERNIGHT IS NOT HIGH...AND HAVE NOT ISSUED AN ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY...ALREADY AREAS OF MID-LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST ARE OCCURRING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY...THE DAY STARTS OUT CLOUDY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS ABOUT THE SW THIRD OF THE REGION...OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. QUICK LOOK AT LATEST 00Z/NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS IT TO BE A TAD SLOWER ON MOVING MEASURABLE PRECIP NORTH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA DRY THROUGH 00Z/18TH. SO HAVE KEPT THE DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS OUT OF PRECIP UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST FOR WINTER P-TYPE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM 00Z NAM GUIDANCE ALONG WITH 21Z/SREF SUGGEST A QUICK CHANGEOVER FROM ANY SNOW INITIALLY...TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. LATEST NAM TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO COAST SUGGESTS MUCH OF PRECIP FALLING EAST OF ABOUT THE I-81 CORRIDOR WOULD BE LIQUID. FORTUNATELY ALL GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLEAR THAT THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE EROSION OF THE COLD SUB FREEZING WEDGE OF SURFACE AIR. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FRZG RAIN...LACK OF A SOURCE OF COLD SURFACE AIR WOULD KEEP THE PERIOD OF FRZG RAIN LIMITED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...HOWEVER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE A MORE EXTENDED PERIOD OF FRZG RAIN COULD TAKE PLACE. STAY TUNED. PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Can you link that for me? this is the sounding link for IAD you need to choose which hour you want http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ready2-bin/profile1.pl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 p.s. skewts suggest all snow through 30 hrs at IAD and at least part of the next 3 hours IF NAM verifies, 3" is entirely possible on this run at IAD Jb says 3-6 is possible NW of the big cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Jb says 3-6 is possible NW of the big cities He changed it already from either side of 1-81? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 FORECAST FOR WINTER P-TYPE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM 00Z NAM GUIDANCE ALONG WITH 21Z/SREF SUGGEST A QUICK CHANGEOVER FROM ANY SNOW INITIALLY...TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. LATEST NAM TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO COAST SUGGESTS MUCH OF PRECIP FALLING EAST OF ABOUT THE I-81 CORRIDOR WOULD BE LIQUID. FORTUNATELY ALL GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLEAR THAT THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE EROSION OF THE COLD SUB FREEZING WEDGE OF SURFACE AIR. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FRZG RAIN...LACK OF A SOURCE OF COLD SURFACE AIR WOULD KEEP THE PERIOD OF FRZG RAIN LIMITED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...HOWEVER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE A MORE EXTENDED PERIOD OF FRZG RAIN COULD TAKE PLACE. STAY TUNED. yawner .. next the nam looks goodish at 84 for the overrunning potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i've gotten burned a couple of times in these type of events....marginal ice events are trouble Maybe it's not an ice storm. Snow and sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 this is the sounding link for IAD you need to choose which hour you want http://ready.arl.noa...bin/profile1.pl try this link instead http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ready2-bin/metcycle.pl?product=profile1&userid=1660&metdata=NAM+12+km&mdatacfg=NAM12&Lat=38.95&Lon=-77.45&x=-1&y=-1&sid=IAD&elev=98&sname=WASHINGTON/DULLES_%28ASOS%29&state=VA&cntry=US&map=WORLD&misc=218 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 yawner .. next the nam looks goodish at 84 for the overrunning potential I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 He changed it already from either side of 1-81? He said there is a chance the n and w of cuties could get 6 plus but he isn't forecasting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I agree. if yoda ji and jb are all over it you know not to get too heavily invested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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