Avdave Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 bastardi says 3-6 inches 50 miles either side of I81 for Northern Virginia....ice problems further east but wont shut down power JB latest tweet Late Monday night into Tuesday icing interior mid and N atlantic states( after start as snow) could be a real traffic nightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 bastardi says 3-6 inches 50 miles either side of I81 for Northern Virginia....ice problems further east but wont shut down power LOL we are about 41 miles from 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 wow, lots of qpf there, and its not 6 days away http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p60_066l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Seems to be the dry model from 84-48, then inside 48 it starts doubling down on the QPF. Well I'd favor the GFS output mostly. But you see the NAM waffle a lot sometimes overall. It seems too cold at 850 if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 2-3" maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Ian isn't buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 especially if you like rain.... wow, lots of qpf there, and its not 6 days away http://www.nco.ncep....am_p60_066l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 LOL we are about 41 miles from 81 I am 59 miles from 81. Can we extend this 9 or 10 miles more so I can get in on the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 2-3" maybe ahh, no marginal surface temps I would guess not more than an inch unless you are 1,000'+ in elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 the surface temp profiles on this run are BS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If the NAM is indeed overdoing QPF as it has before in this range, lighter precip would agrue for slightly lower surface temps, no? Trying to learn a bit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 it doesn't matter if the NAM is right or wrong...high impact ice events don't occur at 32 with moderate to heavy qpf Ian isn't buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 LOL we are about 41 miles from 81 36 miles from the king st exit on the bbypass to I 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Lets hope LWX doesn't put up any watches for the western burbs.They seem to be the kiss of death this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 LOL we are about 41 miles from 81 some 3-6 inch amounts of snow may show up back in the I-81 corridor ( for arguments sake, around 50 miles either side of the highway) from northern Va to NY State south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 especially if you like rain.... yeah, but I'm looking for a pattern change rain or snow if it can finally rain, then maybe it can finally snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Is this based upon anything? 850 low warms up the upper levels when it sits almost right ontop of MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM may be overblowing QPF, its that time range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 yeah, but I'm looking for a pattern change rain or snow if it can finally rain, then maybe it can finally snow it will snow.. patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Ian isn't buying it. Hanging on for dear life. I hope. He might be using reverse psych. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hanging on for dear life. I hope. He might be using reverse psych. the nam is wrong so im not hanging on to anything yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 the nam is wrong so im not hanging on to anything yet you sound so sure of yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 LOL we are about 41 miles from 81 Damn.. I'm 51 if you take I-66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 the surface temp profiles on this run are BS after looking at the surface temps on Raleigh's site, we'll enjoy the .10" period of light rain, I'm sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 it will snow.. patience at my age? BS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Whatever happens if the trend is for a storm to get wetter and colder prior to onset I will say that is something positive to hang our hats on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 the nam is wrong so im not hanging on to anything yet Just joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 after looking at the surface temps on Raleigh's site, we'll enjoy the .10" period of light rain, I'm sure mitch, you know the surface has been pretty cold on all runs, now we get a cold 850 and the surface torches, highly unlikely. take the positives out of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 you sound so sure of yourself. im pretty sure it's the coldest at 850 of the models so it's not a hard to say it's probably wrong at least with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 it will snow.. patience Just like we got a big storm in Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.