atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 So you mentioned the issue of the EURO holding energy back and didn't you say then if it doesn't no storm, or could it be the one earlier that the other models are showing and mostly they are a miss for area but all models do show potential and it's more the timing, is that fair? From guidance that I am seeing I think there is potential between 120-144 hrs out...but not at the later time..I think its the ECM bias at play....However...if its at 120-144 hrs out it may be suppressed due to the cold air mass that will be in place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looking at the Euro ens spag plots, there is a decent amount of members that have the coastal storm, with a few bombing it out sub 980 near Cape Cod. The OP euro is a slow outliner, but otherwise, it has some ensemble support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looking at the Euro ens spag plots, there is a decent amount of members that have the coastal storm, with a few bombing it out sub 980 near Cape Cod. The OP euro is a slow outliner, but otherwise, it has some ensemble support Thank you!! Good news at least, now it's the waiting time, the Ens how earlier are they? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Thank you!! Good news at least, now it's the waiting time, the Ens how earlier are they? Thanks About 6 hours faster than the OP...which is not uncommon, the OP is usually slower than the ensembles. Again, there is not complete ensemble agreement with the OP, but its better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 About 6 hours faster than the OP...which is not uncommon, the OP is usually slower than the ensembles. Again, there is not complete ensemble agreement with the OP, but its better than nothing Thank, would you say the Ens are better than last nights? I understand they didn't really support the op last night, basically are the Ens coming around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Thank, would you say the Ens are better than last nights? I understand they didn't really support the op last night, basically are the Ens coming around? to be honest, they looked better at 0z.......there still some support for the storm, but definitely not as much as 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 From guidance that I am seeing I think there is potential between 120-144 hrs out...but not at the later time..I think its the ECM bias at play....However...if its at 120-144 hrs out it may be suppressed due to the cold air mass that will be in place... Was the euro's bias in play when it slowed down the 12/26 event from the gfs' 24-25 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Was the euro's bias in play when it slowed down the 12/26 event from the gfs' 24-25 storm? If the ECM had other model support for an event at 168 hrs..it could be considered an option...However..once again the ECM OP is on the western edge of its means... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 If the ECM had other model support for an event at 168 hrs..it could be considered an option...However..once again the ECM OP is on the western edge of its means... I have the Euro ens MSLP spag plots and and there is plenty of support for the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I have the Euro ens MSLP spag plots and and there is plenty of support for the OP Realize what I said...if the ECM had support from other models for a storm at 168 hrs.... I would give it more credence... However ...this is what you have said in your last two posts..... to be honest, they looked better at 0z.......there still some support for the storm, but definitely not as much as 0z I have the Euro ens MSLP spag plots and and there is plenty of support for the OP Still some support but not as much as 00z To Plenty of Support... Which one is it? Just trying to clarify.... but like i said i am looking for other model support...that means outside the ECM...for a MECS @ 168 hrs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Realize what I said...if the ECM had support from other models for a storm at 168 hrs.... I would give it more credence... However ...this is what you have said in your last two posts..... Still some support but not as much as 00z To Plenty of Support... Which one is it? Just trying to clarify.... but like i said i am looking for other model support...that means outside the ECM...for a MECS @ 168 hrs..... Relax dude,, U have been spouting off all day how U don't buy next weekend with a storm, why don't U wait and see what the other models and even the Euro show over the next day or two. Guys like Earthlight say they like the signals for a storm at that time so there is a good chance there is a storm of some sort.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Relax dude,, U have been spouting off all day how U don't buy next weekend with a storm, why don't U wait and see what the other models and even the Euro show over the next day or two. Guys like Earthlight say they like the signals for a storm at that time so there is a good chance there is a storm of some sort.. I thought this was a thread about the discussion for a potential event or non event? I have responded to peoples posts to me. I have already stated that I believe there is potential for a storm but the potential lies at 120-144 hrs out and not at 168 hrs out. So I posted the ensemble means and someone made a statement that seemed to contradict the previous statement so I am looking for clarification of those statements. It has nothing to do with relaxing, it has to do with discussing what the guidance shows. Perhaps you think I do not want a snowstorm? I love snow as much as the next person but I also like to discuss the differences between the models & right now basically the ECM is alone on the storm at 168 hrs out... if you do not want to discuss the storm...then that is your choice...I was simply addressing things addressed to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I thought this was a thread about the discussion for a potential event or non event? I have responded to peoples posts to me. I have already stated that I believe there is potential for a storm but the potential lies at 120-144 hrs out and not at 168 hrs out. So I posted the ensemble means and someone made a statement that seemed to contradict the previous statement so I am looking for clarification of those statements. It has nothing to do with relaxing, it has to do with discussing what the guidance shows. Perhaps you think I do not want a snowstorm? I love snow as much as the next person but I also like to discuss the differences between the models & right now basically the ECM is alone on the storm at 168 hrs out... if you do not want to discuss the storm...then that is your choice...I was simply addressing things addressed to me That is Fine, Not arguing with U just saying Personally I will wait til after Storm 1 clears the area(which I think will be terrible driving in alot of areas Tues Morning) before really focusing on storm 2..With the way the Models have handled or not handled Storms this winter all I am interested in is it showing POTENTIAL at this timeframe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 18z DGEX shows a quick 4-6" for most people on Thursday night into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Probably more than that on the coast..the coastal develops and brings heavier precipitation there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Probably more than that on the coast..the coastal develops and brings heavier precipitation there. 18z GFS also has the overrunning event Friday, but looks to be suppressed to the southeast. Just where we want it considering the GFS bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 dgex 24 total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 dgex 24 total Thanks...not bad. What's funny is how we have seen several overrunning events actually in the medium term already this season. They have all changed as we got closer to the event and the overruning never comes to fruition. I would personally love some good widespread overrunning type precipitation. It's been a while...lately it has been feast or famine with these frontogenically forced bands where many people inevitably get screwed in subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS has a strung out system for storm #2; seems to be having trouble finding where to focus the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Thanks...not bad. What's funny is how we have seen several overrunning events actually in the medium term already this season. They have all changed as we got closer to the event and the overruning never comes to fruition. I would personally love some good widespread overrunning type precipitation. It's been a while...lately it has been feast or famine with these frontogenically forced bands where many people inevitably get screwed in subsidence. I was thinking the same thing. it definitely has been awhile since we've had a nice overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Thanks...not bad. What's funny is how we have seen several overrunning events actually in the medium term already this season. They have all changed as we got closer to the event and the overruning never comes to fruition. I would personally love some good widespread overrunning type precipitation. It's been a while...lately it has been feast or famine with these frontogenically forced bands where many people inevitably get screwed in subsidence. It seems as if these overrunning events have trended more towards traditional coastals as we approach the event...however, the GFS does have a PDII look to it with widespread overrunning and an arctic airmass just to the north. It's obviously not as extreme an airmass as February 2003, but could be some good ratios with strong overrunning and -10C 850s over NYC. Definitely thinking we could have a nice snow event Friday as all the models seem to be converging on a vort coming across the Plains and spawning precipitation. Also, I'm noticing that North America seems to be much colder this year than last season. The strong La Niña and blocking over Siberia are definitely helping us realize much colder airmasses. Here is the GFS at Day 7, looks pretty impressive with the extent of the cold over the Canadian Arctic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS is strung out and S and E with the storm...Its been like this with all the storms so far this season. Not worried here The rest of the run is insane with coastal bomb after bomb (miller A), its awesome to loop it, no sign of la nina or SE ridge in the long range gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm 100% positive the Euro will be correct. Why? Because from the 21st through the 27th, I will be in Seattle for the annual AMS conference. Thus, I will not be in the area. Snowstorms happen when I am gone. Is Gerry wxfella going to the conference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 heres the 18z gfs ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 We need the piece of energy near the SW to come out faster like the NAM is showing to get low closer to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The GFS is doing what it often does out to the west and that is trying to dive northern stream energy too far south into the southern Plains...it has snow into southern KS and northern OK...rarely if ever do those areas see significant snows from anything but a southern branch disturbance, and if they do see it from the northern branch the ridge is usually more amplified to the west, ALOT more than the GFS shows.....my guess is the GFS as of now is about 150-200 miles too far south out there which ultimately impacts its forecast down the road as well....as bluewave stated, the ultimate result if it did not dig down that far would be a faster ejection to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Keep in mind that the Euro is not amplifying the lead shortwave you see on the 84hr NAM and GFS. It actually is very flat with that wave. A northern stream energy dives southward into the Plains and amplifies with a weak southern stream piece that comes up the coast at 160+hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 At hr 102 light overrunning snows on 0Z GFS with weak surface low near New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Light overrunning snows continue through hr. 108 with 2-3 nches of snow by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Light overrunning snows continue through hr. 108 with 2-3 nches of snow by that time. There is a low emerging out of the gulf at 108 hours. Lets see if that low goes up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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