jasonli18t Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 What is the airmass like on the euro with regards to this storm? Obviously the close track as depicted spells major issues for the cities, especially east, but I wonder if this is a plain rain type of threat with a close track, or perhaps more of a sleet storm type of potential. Verbatim it's probably a snow-->other--->snow type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Better image of hr 168 An East Based -NAO, no 50/50 low yet a formidable +PNA pattern over the West, the pattern doesnt look horrible, but it's certainly not ideal either.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 not sure why people are saying no other model has this,,, 12z GFS has a storm, but doing it's SE thing...canadian brushes us..,, Plus, it's the EURO. does it really need other model support when it shows a storm 3 runs in a row? While the exact solution will vary considering we're 162hrs out, gotta like the potential in this time period. That's all you can ask for this far out OT, the bears .seahawks game is snowy! I was saying that can we even look at this solution since the Euro could just be up to its usual bias of holding the energy back, yet causing a storm when no other models do? The storm the other models have is the first one, not this random second piece of energy the Euro decides to blow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 174 sub 992 over extreme se mass lgt to mod precip phl to nyc mod precip nyc on northeast...another area from hazleton through nepa How much total does the euro have?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 How much total does the euro have?? 1-1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I don't care about the temps and 850s right now, just the fact that it has a storm is good enough for me. You'll only drive yourself crazy if you worry about temps this far out on one run of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Those of you questioning the Euro about this storm and claiming it has no support need to step back and ask yourself this. Which model has been pretty consistent with this and which models have been flopping around like a fish out of water but are trending to the more consistent model.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 looks good inland, close call for big cities To me that map is kind of deceiving. I have the high resolution regional views..and the H85 0c line is too far north on that graphic. It never really makes too much NW inroads from Central NJ or far Eastern LI. Definitely nit picking..but this is actually a really great solution for everybody as the CCB is large and stretches back west..but is most intense over I-95. Everybody gets into the fun. It's too bad it's in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Those of you questioning the Euro about this storm and claiming it has no support need to step back and ask yourself this. Which model has been pretty consistent with this and which models have been flopping around like a fish out of water but are trending to the more consistent model.? This is only the second run of the ECM that shows this type of solution..Not exactly sure if i would consider that consistency ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I've not investigated this system that closely, but it does fit with the medium range pattern I was looking at last week. Lots can still go wrong, but I'm cautiously optimistic that the Euro ops and ensemble are showing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm 100% positive the Euro will be correct. Why? Because from the 21st through the 27th, I will be in Seattle for the annual AMS conference. Thus, I will not be in the area. Snowstorms happen when I am gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 AFTN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WITH THESHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING ACROSS TX DAY 4 AND INDUCING A SFC WAVEOVER THE GLF COAST AND SOUTHEAST SEABOARD WITH GFS AND IKMETJOINING THE ECMWF AND ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER TIMING IS STILL THEISSUE. ALL ARE AT LEAST A DAY FASTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWFAND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE 00ZECMWF RELOADED THE MEAN MS VALLEY TROF RESULTING IN A STRONGER ANDSLOWER LOW COMING OUT DAYS 6 AND 7. THIS WAS DISCOUNTED EARLIER BYUSE OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN. LATEST GFS/GEFS/CMC/UKMET/NOGAPSARE ALL FASTER THAN EVEN THE SOLUTION USED EARLIER BY A DAY.LATEST 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THE MEAN TROF WESTWARDRESULTING IN A SECOND STRONGER COASTAL WAVE AS IT DID WITH ITS 00ZRUN. THIS IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT WITH A LESSER AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONTAKING ANY SFC LOW REFLECTION WELL EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN.THE 00Z ECMWF SFC LOW REFLECTION WAS ON THE EXTREME WEST EDGE OFENSEMBLE ENVELOPE AND EXPECT THAT ITS WITH THE 12Z RUN. THIS FASTER EXIT OF THE SYSTEM A PREFERRED AFTN FINAL SOLUTION BYHPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This is only the second run of the ECM that shows this type of solution..Not exactly sure if i would consider that consistency ... The Euro has been showing a storm along the east coast for more then two runs. Timing may be different but it has had some low on the coast for awhile now. Tell me what the ggem and the GFS has been showing for the past two or three days. Be careful though, you will need a long post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm 100% positive the Euro will be correct. Why? Because from the 21st through the 27th, I will be in Seattle for the annual AMS conference. Thus, I will not be in the area. Snowstorms happen when I am gone. Good thinking here... I am heading out there too with my research group at Stony Brook University and we fly out Sunday morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The Euro has been showing a storm along the east coast for more then two runs. Timing may be different but it has had some low on the coast for awhile now. Tell me what the ggem and the GFS has been showing for the past two or three days. Be careful though, you will need a long post. There is no debating that..What is being debated is how the ECM is creating this second system.... As you can tell by the above post from HPC ...the 00z ECM means did not support the OP 00z ECM.... It has gone from showing a storm at 120-144 hrs out ... To showing a storm at 168 hrs out... This storm is created by the left over energy from the first storm it slides OTS like the rest of guidance..... The reason no other model supports this "second storm" is because they do not have the bias of the ECM which leaves to much energy over the SW...You take away that energy and you have no storm... The above is the GGEM and you see high pressure large and in charge.... So, on the contrary there is not a model that is trending to the ECM...the ECM stands alone with this second event....created by its bias... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 There is no debating that..What is being debated is how the ECM is creating this second system.... As you can tell by the above post from HPC ...the 00z ECM means did not support the OP 00z ECM.... It has gone from showing a storm at 120-144 hrs out ... To showing a storm at 168 hrs out... This storm is created by the left over energy from the first storm it slides OTS like the rest of guidance..... The reason no other model supports this "second storm" is because they do not have the bias of the ECM which leaves to much energy over the SW...You take away that energy and you have no storm... The above is the GGEM and you see high pressure large and in charge.... So, on the contrary there is not a model that is trending to the ECM...the ECM stands alone with this second event....created by its bias... The GGEM is an awful model. Dreadful. Makes the Goofus model look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 There is no debating that..What is being debated is how the ECM is creating this second system.... As you can tell by the above post from HPC ...the 00z ECM means did not support the OP 00z ECM.... It has gone from showing a storm at 120-144 hrs out ... To showing a storm at 168 hrs out... This storm is created by the left over energy from the first storm it slides OTS like the rest of guidance..... The reason no other model supports this "second storm" is because they do not have the bias of the ECM which leaves to much energy over the SW...You take away that energy and you have no storm... The above is the GGEM and you see high pressure large and in charge.... So, on the contrary there is not a model that is trending to the ECM...the ECM stands alone with this second event....created by its bias... The 0z ECM mean has it, it's just much weaker and OTS. The 0z ECM op was the most amplified member of the ensemble suite with the trough over OH Valley. If anything, I'd argue the ensemble members are hanging MORE energy back than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Just because the Euro has a hanging back energy bias, doesn't mean it has to be wrong in hanging back energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The GGEM is an awful model. Dreadful. Makes the Goofus model look good. That may be the case...but what other model is showing this second system? As noted above by HPC... THIS WAS DISCOUNTED EARLIER BYUSE OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN. LATEST GFS/GEFS/CMC/UKMET/NOGAPSARE ALL FASTER THAN EVEN THE SOLUTION USED EARLIER BY A DAY.LATEST 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THE MEAN TROF WESTWARDRESULTING IN A SECOND STRONGER COASTAL WAVE AS IT DID WITH ITS 00ZRUN. THIS IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT WITH A LESSER AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONTAKING ANY SFC LOW REFLECTION WELL EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN.THE 00Z ECMWF SFC LOW REFLECTION WAS ON THE EXTREME WEST EDGE OFENSEMBLE ENVELOPE AND EXPECT THAT ITS WITH THE 12Z RUN. THIS FASTER EXIT OF THE SYSTEM A PREFERRED AFTN FINAL SOLUTION BY HPC. They seem to be saying the same thing... If any storm in this frame has potential it would be the first one at 120 hrs out...not the second one as it has no support... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The 0z ECM mean has it, it's just much weaker and OTS. The 0z ECM op was the most amplified member of the ensemble suite with the trough over OH Valley. If anything, I'd argue the ensemble members are hanging MORE energy back than the op. I would argue that if ensemble members were hanging more energy back then the OP run that you would have a means solution closer to the coast. Instead last night the means were even more east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I would argue that if ensemble members were hanging more energy back then the OP run that you would have a means solution closer to the coast. Instead last night the means were even more east.... I wasn't clear, sorry about that. At 174 in the 0z ECM ensemble, when the low was going OTS, there were still a good percentage of members that still had a cutoff/hangback low over the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I wasn't clear, sorry about that. At 174 in the 0z ECM ensemble, when the low was going OTS, there were still a good percentage of members that still had a cutoff/hangback low over the SW. Alright so ..now we are talking at 174 hrs out...from 00z ... which would still indicate to me an even more delay of the system ..if its hanging energy back in the SW at 174 from last nights run... That would imply the energy is residing back over the SW (or to the SW of its 174 hr position) ? at 6 Z sunday the 23rd ...which would imply that the storm would not be till even a later date via that information.. Or am i still misunderstanding you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Alright so ..now we are talking at 174 hrs out...from 00z ... which would still indicate to me an even more delay of the system ..if its hanging energy back in the SW at 174 from last nights run... That would imply the energy is residing back over the SW (or to the SW of its 174 hr position) ? at 6 Z sunday the 23rd ...which would imply that the storm would not be till even a later date via that information.. Or am i still misunderstanding you? No, you've got it. I used 174 at 0z to compare to 162 in the 12z run (when the low is starting to come up the coast). There are also members that eject it faster. The big difference, imo, is that the northern stream is more amplified in the op and that's what ultimately allows the system to ride up the coast instead of going OTS, since a stronger northern stream will create more ridging out in front and force the sfc low farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 No, you've got it. I used 174 at 0z to compare to 162 in the 12z run (when the low is starting to come up the coast). There are also members that eject it faster. The big difference, imo, is that the northern stream is more amplified in the op and that's what ultimately allows the system to ride up the coast instead of going OTS, since a stronger northern stream will create more ridging out in front and force the sfc low farther west. A slight weakness in the northern stream may be OK, however, since the 12z ECM OP is an uncomfortable coastal hugger for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Everyone should just be happy that the models have a storm at this point. Let the details work themselves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Everyone should just be happy that the models have a storm at this point. Let the details work themselves out. Agree, let it go for a couple of days. Just sit back and look at the runs for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Be interesting to see if the Ense are close to the op or not didn't the GFS Ens show something at least closer to the coast and wasn't the GEM showing something to just OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Be interesting to see if the Ense are close to the op or not didn't the GFS Ens show something at least closer to the coast and wasn't the GEM showing something to just OTS? Yes the ensembles of the GFS were at 120 hrs out.. The GGEM The ECM however is 30 hrs later..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yes the ensembles of the GFS were at 120 hrs out.. The GGEM The ECM however is 30 hrs later..... So you mentioned the issue of the EURO holding energy back and didn't you say then if it doesn't no storm, or could it be the one earlier that the other models are showing and mostly they are a miss for area but all models do show potential and it's more the timing, is that fair? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Euro ensembles coming out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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