uofmiami Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 EC DAY 7: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Surface low tracks from N of HSE to east of OC MD to Northeast of ACY at 168 and then over Block Island and eventually over the Cape at 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 162 sub 1004 low about 25-50 miles north of hse.. hr 168 996 low about 50 miles east of acy hr 162 hvy snow from dc to phl hr 168 hvy snow dc to ilg...very heavy snow from phl to just outside nyc 850 and frz line run from delaware canal to nyc Don't think ive ever heard you use the words "Very heavy snow" haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 168 hours the surface low is off the NJ coast...MECS for the entire area. Do you think without the Euro's bias to hold the energy back that the storm that goes OTS would hit us, with no second storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 174 sub 992 over extreme se mass lgt to mod precip phl to nyc mod precip nyc on northeast...another area from hazleton through nepa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Do you think without the Euro's bias to hold the energy back that the storm that goes OTS would hit us, with no second storm? That's exactly what I was thinking. Can we even look at the type of solution where all other guidance has that first storm coming out where the Euro holds back the energy since that's its bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 168 hours the surface low is off the NJ coast...MECS for the entire area. I don't know what the 2m temps are, but based on the 850s I'd say it's raining in CC Philly right up into SE Bucks. Pretty warm but we know there's a snowball's chance in hell that this solution will be here in 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Don't think ive ever heard you use the words "Very heavy snow" haha yea 6hr increments is .5-.75 precip over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Do you think without the Euro's bias to hold the energy back that the storm that goes OTS would hit us, with no second storm? I'm thinking the same thing. There's a reason no other model has this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I don't know what the 2m temps are, but based on the 850s I'd say it's raining in CC Philly right up into SE Bucks. Pretty warm but we know there's a snowball's chance in hell that this solution will be here in 7 days. at hr 168 its south of phl by about 25 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Nice run.. Definitely looks like last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Does this hit south central PA good too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 at hr 168 its south of phl by about 25 miles. guess the plymouth graphics are a little off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Does this hit south central PA good too? Yes but, at this point it doesn't really matter. It's probably not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 That's exactly what I was thinking. Can we even look at the type of solution where all other guidance has that first storm coming out where the Euro holds back the energy since that's its bias? Exactly...I think it's going to be the first storm that hits us, these events tend to consolidate as we approach them, and the ECM has a noted bias of leaving too much shortwave energy behind in the SW. All guidance does seem to be latching onto the threat of significant winter weather next weekend, however, with the possibility of a large Nor'easter. Another MECS would just be incredible considering the winter we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Does this hit south central PA good too? yes your close to .5 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yes but, at this point it doesn't really matter. It's probably not happening. LOL yep...this storm is not happening! We live in the snow dome you know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 looks good inland, close call for big cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yes but, at this point it doesn't really matter. It's probably not happening. Please stop with these unnecessary posts. I think most in here realize the chances of it playing out like this arn't high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 ECMWF VS GFS day 5 right before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 not sure why people are saying no other model has this,,, 12z GFS has a storm, but doing it's SE thing...canadian brushes us..,, Plus, it's the EURO. does it really need other model support when it shows a storm 3 runs in a row? While the exact solution will vary considering we're 162hrs out, gotta like the potential in this time period. That's all you can ask for this far out OT, the bears .seahawks game is snowy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 looks good inland, close call for big cities The Euro's temperature profile looks a bit suspect given the offshore track of the low....you'd probably see the 0C line about 50 miles SE of where the ECM actually has it. The Euro's two main biases are holding too much energy back in the SW and being too warm at 850mb in the longer range. So there's a lot of changes that will happen as we approach this event with a solution like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 If this storm does indeed pan out, wouldn't be surprised if it's a coastal hugger given the pattern upstream. Remember it's the pattern that drives these storms..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 not sure why people are saying no other model has this,,, 12z GFS has a storm, but doing it's SE thing...canadian brushes us..,, Plus, it's the EURO. does it really need other model support when it shows a storm 3 runs in a row? While the exact solution will vary considering we're 162hrs out, gotta like the potential in this time period. That's all you can ask for this far out OT, the bears .seahawks game is snowy! Keep in mind that the GFS & GGEM have a storm not just south and east (GFS) and basically east (GGEM) But also at an earlier time frame.....the one around 120 -132 hrs... This on the ECM is about 30 hrs later and is created out of the models bias of holding energy back... If that energy is not "held back" you have no storm in the 168 hr time frame.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Anything else of interest on the Euro, Tombo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Better image of hr 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yes but, at this point it doesn't really matter. It's probably not happening. Why Not ? Last 2 storms showing huge hits like this a week away turned out to be major Snowstorms..Not saying it will be a rip roaring Blizzard from Philly to Boston but Potential is defiantly there and other Models have also shown signs as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Keep in mind that the GFS & GGEM have a storm not just south and east (GFS) and basically east (GGEM) But also at an earlier time frame.....the one around 120 -132 hrs... true. but it was also the EURO that sniffed out the later start time on the 12/26 event... point is, keep all options open at this point and time This on the ECM is about 30 hrs later and is created out of the models bias of holding energy back... If that energy is not "held back" you have no storm in the 168 hr time frame.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Euro is about 1-1.25 QPF for the NYC area Very similar at H5 to the 0z but it remains an outliner.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Anything else of interest on the Euro, Tombo? its got a west to east bowling ball moving across the south at hr 222, waiting to see what happens with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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