mattinpa Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12z CMC has a much stronger low Keep us updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 My gut instinct tells me that there will be a storm, probably on Friday, and it will be coming from the southern stream as the Euro depicts and now the other models are starting to catch on. Don't the graphs show the EC on top percentage wise? I guess if you want to get technical ..the UKMET at day 5 is on top the way it looks and then its followed by the GFS/ECM very closely..but what is even more impressive IMHO is how the NOGAPS is up right underneath them.. I am not saying that a storm can not happen ..but at the present time all indications point to this sliding to the south and east and there is not much support for the later system that the ECM was showing...Can this pattern produce? Of course it can..but at the same time it does not mean it has to... The cold air could be just to suppressive and that could be a reason that this would slip to the south and to the east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 My gut instinct tells me that there will be a storm, probably on Friday, and it will be coming from the southern stream as the Euro depicts and now the other models are starting to catch on. Don't the graphs show the EC on top percentage wise? The storm the euro is late saturday on. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looks like the Canadian brushes us on Friday from the Southeast with a few inches. Just SE of the area with the main precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yes, but the previous runs had it on Friday. I think there will be a storm, whether it is Friday or Saturday. The Euro may come back to the Friday solution today. The storm the euro is late saturday on. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 CMC 120 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12 Z GGEM looks progressive compared to the GFS... 144 Has the low at 120 down to 1007 mbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12 Z GGEM looks progressive compared to the GFS... 144 Has the low at 120 down to 1007 mbs Now the Euro's starting to get support from both models. Definitely think we have something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 People tend to really over-interpret these correlations, since they are for the entire hemisphere. Assuming that the global models hemispheric forecast correlation tells you something meaningful about the models success at predicting events at a particular place (the I-95 corridor) in a particular situation (active precipitation, which is statisically a rather rare event) when the correlations themsleves are heterogeneous over time is going to lead you to some pretty spurious conclusions. What's the effect on the hemispheric correlation between a storm just inside the benchmark vs 100 miles NE. -0.01? And that's for synoptic events. The 5H correlations mean even less at the meso level. I'm sure there are better validation measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 alright, 12z euro started, lets see what solution appears this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 through hr 72 the northern stream is a little more amplified in the central states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 through hr 84, continued theme that the northern stream is more amplified and the hgts on the ec are hgr...looks like its trying to leave the energy behind again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 96 has mod precip streaming from new mexico through northern texas to st louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 108 has lgt precip from sw pa on sw....its leaving energy behind like 0z, so even if the first storm may miss, gotta watch the energy behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 114 has lgt precip from m/d line south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 120 that area scoots off the coast, but still a large area of hvy precip along the gulf states...the northern stream is trying to to start digging in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Where is the 0C 850 for the first batch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 132 northern stream still diving down but the east coast hgts are a little flatter compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Where is the 0C 850 for the first batch? on the nc/va border..but there is no real appreciable qpf north of that border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 150 has a sub 1008 low about 75-100 miles east of savannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 156 sub 1008 low about 50-75 miles east of cape fear...lgt precip up to ttn...mod precip in sw va...850 line runs from just south of ric to ashville, nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 almost looks like the area that misses us waits for the northern stream to dive in while waiting off the SE coast.. Here she comes, hr 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 We got ourselves a storm at 162 hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 almost looks like the area that misses us waits for the northern stream to dive in while waiting off the SE coast.. Here she comes, hr 156 its the energy it leaves behind at hr 108 or whenever it was...that rotates through, northern stream dives down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Nice hit for DC at the Mid Atlantic at 162 hours. Almost identical to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 168 KABOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 168 hours the surface low is off the NJ coast...MECS for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 162 sub 1004 low about 25-50 miles north of hse.. hr 168 996 low about 50 miles east of acy hr 162 hvy snow from dc to phl hr 168 hvy snow dc to ilg...very heavy snow from phl to just outside nyc 850 and frz line run from delaware canal to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Sucks this is so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 lol I give this like 1% of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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