MJO812 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 6z GFS doesn't have a threat . Looks cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 6z GFS doesn't have a threat . Looks cold and dry. I still feel something could happen in the period from 120-180 hours out as far as a relatively significant storm...the 06z GFS has something off the SE Coast and we are currently sitting in the GFS dead range of 5-7 days where it often has big problems picking these things up....the GEM has been progressive all season and the Euro has been inconsistent...we should see some consensus towards a storm in the next 48-72 hours if its going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 6z GFS doesn't have a threat . Looks cold and dry. It looks like there are multiple threats for coastals, but as the GFS loves to do, it pushes them south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Those are ECMWF ensemble means from a day ago. Today's means are further out to sea than the op ECMWF but do show a storm coming up from the Gulf states... ECM ensemble means for 144-192 Does not seem to support the OP unless I am missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 06z GFS ensembles are more bullish than 00z ensembles on storm for friday. May see something on 12z Op run. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zf126.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Those are ECMWF ensemble means from a day ago. Today's means are further out to sea than the op ECMWF but do show a storm coming up from the Gulf states... Thank you for pointing that out. Cleared the Cache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 6z GFS doesn't have a threat . Looks cold and dry. What are you talking about? Its still there, it just goes south of us. A lot more juicy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12 Z GFS is south and east and out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12 Z GFS is south and east and out to sea That's a shock. A potential storm 6 days out and the GFS is south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Storm threat just south of us 6 days away. Don't know what more you can ask for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The GFS has been hysterically horrible with this potential so far for this storm at the end of the week. First it focused on the northern stream system with no sign of a southern stream system or interaction for days, now it finally shows this potential. It is as if the NAM follows a day behind the GFS and the GFS follows a day behind the EC. I think we just need to watch the EC to see what is really going to happen. The GFS just gives you old news a day later most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Storm threat just south of us 6 days away. Don't know what more you can ask for this far out. yes true, but its not just south, it Well south and out to sea, and it has support from the ensembles which isnt good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Virtually every 9z sref member is digging the rockies s/w more than past runs including the 12z gfs. The 12z gfs looks like it was trending towards the Euro with the s/w digging more and a more split-flow like pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 yes true, but its not just south, it Well south and out to sea, and it has support from the ensembles which isnt good at all. Not really "well" south. Precip even enters our area. Might not be much, but that just shows how close it is. So you can't call it "well" south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 yes true, but its not just south, it Well south and out to sea, and it has support from the ensembles which isnt good at all. Yeah because we know how amazingly accurate the gfs is over 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The GFS has been hysterically horrible with this potential so far for this storm at the end of the week. First it focused on the northern stream system with no sign of a southern stream system or interaction for days, now it finally shows this potential. It is as if the NAM follows a day behind the GFS and the GFS follows a day behind the EC. I think we just need to watch the EC to see what is really going to happen. The GFS just gives you old news a day later most of the time. I don't know whether i can agree with this or not. ECM was originally showing a system effecting the Mid Atlantic into the NE with a snowstorm/ice storm at 144 hrs ..only to have it last night slide south and east OTS... And then develop a storm from energy left behind for hours 168-192.... It seems like the ECM is having its shares of struggles as well.... It just may be that the cold air will be too suppressive for this time period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Well, if you look at it that the EC at least had the potential coming from the southern stream and not the northern stream like the GFS did, then the differences with the EC are in the details. The differences with the GFS over the past couple of days have been hysterical in comparison. The EC had and still has potential coming from the southern stream at some point starting on Friday. The details will just have to wait, but at the least the EC gives you a realistic idea of what to watch out for. I don't know whether i can agree with this or not. ECM was originally showing a system effecting the Mid Atlantic into the NE with a snowstorm/ice storm at 144 hrs ..only to have it last night slide south and east OTS... And then develop a storm from energy left behind for hours 168-192.... It seems like the ECM is having its shares of struggles as well.... It just may be that the cold air will be too suppressive for this time period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Well, if you look at it that the EC at least had the potential coming from the southern stream and not the northern stream like the GFS did, then the differences with the EC are in the details. The differences with the GFS over the past couple of days have been hysterical in comparison. The EC had and still has potential coming from the southern stream at some point starting on Friday. The details will just have to wait, but at the least the EC gives you a realistic idea of what to watch out for. Exactly. if you compare 12z today to 00z last night, the changes are just hysterical. GFS had a little nusince clipper dropping like .1-.25" over us last night, now it has a nice juicy system just south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Not really "well" south. Precip even enters our area. Might not be much, but that just shows how close it is. So you can't call it "well" south. I agree - how can that be WELL south? DC gets light snow out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Well, if you look at it that the EC at least had the potential coming from the southern stream and not the northern stream like the GFS did, then the differences with the EC are in the details. The differences with the GFS over the past couple of days have been hysterical in comparison. The EC had and still has potential coming from the southern stream at some point starting on Friday. The details will just have to wait, but at the least the EC gives you a realistic idea of what to watch out for. Well yesterday at 12 Z the ECM mean seemed to suggest more of a Miller B set up As you see one low over SW NY and a secondary along the coast... And then it was yesterday at 18 Z that the GFS showed the same type scenario for the first time , as the ECM means. So then last night it totally changed up on the 00z ECM... While the GFS kept to its same theme from 18 Z.. So basically thats why i say it seems like all models are having there difficulties ...and probably why HPC says all models solutions are suspect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 yes true, but its not just south, it Well south and out to sea, and it has support from the ensembles which isnt good at all. The GFS could have a low in Cuba 6 days out and it wouldn't matter much. The GFS outside of 84 hours should be viewed as entertainment purposes only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12z CMC already digging the s/w more at 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 You bring some good points however I was speaking only of the operational runs of the models. Anyway, there is a reason that the EC has the highest verification scores and remember that the EC usually does better with southern stream dominated systems and the GFS often does better with northern stream dominated systems, so this one goes to the EC in my opinion. The consistency of the operational EC with this potential has been much better than the operational GFS in my opinion. I am not however speaking for the means of those models. Well yesterday at 12 Z the ECM mean seemed to suggest more of a Miller B set up As you see one low over SW NY and a secondary along the coast... And then it was yesterday at 18 Z that the GFS showed the same type scenario for the first time , as the ECM means. So then last night it totally changed up on the 00z ECM... While the GFS kept to its same theme from 18 Z.. So basically thats why i say it seems like all models are having there difficulties ...and probably why HPC says all models solutions are suspect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 DT has stated the same a million times. The GFS could have a low in Cuba 6 days out and it wouldn't matter much. The GFS outside of 84 hours should be viewed as entertainment purposes only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 DT has stated the same a million times. It's true. JB has asked many times to people living in NY city? Of all your big snowstorms over the years, what did the GFS show 5-6 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 120 hrs 12z gfs ensembles mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On the 12z GFS run it seemed like it was shearing out the s/w randomly and out of nowhere, like it did with the storm earlier this week until it got inside of 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 FWIW....The ensembles have NOT given up on the storm in this period. I would not presume it's gone. Rather, it may be in the "model dead zone" where storms are lost for a few runs. We'll know by tomorrow night (Monday night)'s runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 You bring some good points however I was speaking only of the operational runs of the models. Anyway, there is a reason that the EC has the highest verification scores and remember that the EC usually does better with southern stream dominated systems and the GFS often does better with northern stream dominated systems, so this one goes to the EC in my opinion. The consistency of the operational EC with this potential has been much better than the operational GFS in my opinion. I am not however speaking for the means of those models. I guess if you want to get technical ..the UKMET at day 5 is on top the way it looks and then its followed by the GFS/ECM very closely..but what is even more impressive IMHO is how the NOGAPS is up right underneath them.. I am not saying that a storm can not happen ..but at the present time all indications point to this sliding to the south and east and there is not much support for the later system that the ECM was showing...Can this pattern produce? Of course it can..but at the same time it does not mean it has to... The cold air could be just to suppressive and that could be a reason that this would slip to the south and to the east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12z CMC has a much stronger low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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