tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 186 sub 984 about on the tip of li...hvy snows continuing from balt to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 192 storm is in the gulf of maine...just left over lgt precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 should say, the cold blast shown in previous runs has been terminated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Would be a slam dunk MECS from DC to New England if taken verbatim. CCB is huge and extends back to Central PA and into Central New England as well...and antecedent surface and mid level temps are so cold that it's snow all the way to the coast with the surface low right off the shore. Cool solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 990 off the NJ coast at 180 hrs. Big CCB and heavy snow for everybody at that hour. Jesus. Jesus? You're funny how excited you get for model runs a week away. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 too bad the Euro's southwest bias is at play here and this solution it totally unsupported by the GGEM and GFS/GFES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 should say, the cold blast shown in previous runs has been terminated... With the neutral to +NAO and the trends of the last 25 years as far as those sorts of cold outbreaks go I strongly anticipated that feature of the forecast would eventually be left on the road side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 should say, the cold blast shown in previous runs has been terminated... No more arctic air? What do temperatures look like after the Wednesday storm? And then, after the weekend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 No more arctic air? What do temperatures look like after the Wednesday storm? And then, after the weekend storm? no its plenty cold, but so far through hr 198 no sub 504 thickness invading the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Jesus? You're funny how excited you get for model runs a week away. lol I'm not getting excited, the model solution verbatim is awesome. If you read my posts from earlier today; I'm not thrilled IRT the pattern. That being said, it's 1:30am..and this was nice to look at. Will it happen this way with all the shortwaves embedded within the flow and the major amplification across the Plains? No. But verbatim, this solution rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This would be the first time honestly since the PD II storm that we truly had an arctic high in place north of one of these storms....thats one thing that really has been missing the last 10 years on many of the NE U.S. storms, even when the 50/50 low and Greenland block has been there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm not getting excited, the model solution verbatim is awesome. If you read my posts from earlier today; I'm not thrilled IRT the pattern. That being said, it's 1:30am..and this was nice to look at. Will it happen this way with all the shortwaves embedded within the flow and the major amplification across the Plains? No. But verbatim, this solution rocks. I think you are justified in being interested. Isn't this the fourth or fifth run in a row with some kind of decent east coast storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I think you are justified in being interested. Isn't this the fourth or fifth run in a row with some kind of decent east coast storm? yea, but at different times...this time its later and its a different storm. Its a piece of the energy that is left behind from the first event that we are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 yea, but at different times...this time its later and its a different storm. Its a piece of the energy that is left behind from the first event that we are looking at. I think later could work in our favor if we have more cold to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm not getting excited, the model solution verbatim is awesome. If you read my posts from earlier today; I'm not thrilled IRT the pattern. Why aren't you excited regarding the pattern? The +PNA looks great for this next storm with a ridge axis directly over Idaho/Montana, we've got a semblance of a 50/50 low, and very cold air with 510m thicknesses just to our north. I honestly think the chances of at least some snow next weekend are pretty high, if not a MECS/HECS. So far, this has been an absolutely epic winter with a killer pattern, and I wouldn't be surprised if it continued. I'm quite surprised actually at how quiet the weather forums have been lately, especially over on the SNE side. There have been so few posts tonight considering we have a major storm Monday night/Tuesday with potentially dangerous icing, then a beautiful pattern with very cold temperatures and another Nor'easter for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 So the ECM suppresses the original threat for this time period and produces another threat for a later time period? And that later threat IMO comes about from the bias of letting energy behind .....but irregardless a time period to watch and still looks to get quite cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 day 10 of the euro run is pretty blah...severely pos nao, with a cutter in the future...but its hr 240 which will likely change tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm not getting excited, the model solution verbatim is awesome. If you read my posts from earlier today; I'm not thrilled IRT the pattern. That being said, it's 1:30am..and this was nice to look at. Will it happen this way with all the shortwaves embedded within the flow and the major amplification across the Plains? No. But verbatim, this solution rocks. I hear ya. I just got a chuckle out of the Jesus comment, but I know you're not taking a longer range run like this too seriously. And I always enjoy your posts and the excellent analysis you give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 wow what a beast of a miller A on the euro tonight..But then i look at the gfs and see a pure northern stream system that pops a miller B..hmm Would love to hear HM's thoughts on this one, he basically nailed the last 2 blizzards from a week out. Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Why aren't you excited regarding the pattern? The +PNA looks great for this next storm with a ridge axis directly over Idaho/Montana, we've got a semblance of a 50/50 low, and very cold air with 510m thicknesses just to our north. I honestly think the chances of at least some snow next weekend are pretty high, if not a MECS/HECS. So far, this has been an absolutely epic winter with a killer pattern, and I wouldn't be surprised if it continued. I'm quite surprised actually at how quiet the weather forums have been lately, especially over on the SNE side. There have been so few posts tonight considering we have a major storm Monday night/Tuesday with potentially dangerous icing, then a beautiful pattern with very cold temperatures and another Nor'easter for next weekend. I think people are tired and taking a break after all the tracking in the last few weeks with the big storms. The Monday night/Tuesday storm is mostly rain for NYC area, so people aren't too excited. Things will come alive again in a few days if next weekend's threat looks legitimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Out of 20 GEM ensemble members at 180 hours one shows a big storm well offshore near 35N and 7-8 others show something brewing on the Gulf Coast near LA/TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This would be the first time honestly since the PD II storm that we truly had an arctic high in place north of one of these storms....thats one thing that really has been missing the last 10 years on many of the NE U.S. storms, even when the 50/50 low and Greenland block has been there. Yes, what we all want (and which would be the elixir for the board) would be a wide ranging event like Feb 1983, Jan 1996, PD2, etc.-- I've become bored with these "bombs" and would like to see a large storm dump 20" inches over a wide area. Bring it on home, SG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=180&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm Member 18 is the lone shark that even remotely resembles anything the Euro is trying to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm still not interested whatsoever. The solution was great to see, but to me it screams of a "needle in a haystack" outcome that could drastically change like that. Use what phraseology you want, threading the needle, etc, but I would be much more confident with a blocking pattern present. We're still in a Nina, where storms will try to cut as much as possible due to the northern stream's dominance and the SE Ridge being ever present without the NAO to keep it in check. this could be the very rare instance where that rule is denied, but I would be much more confident if that ridge axis in the West slides east, or the blocking presence improves over the Davis Strait/Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm still not interested whatsoever. The solution was great to see, but to me it screams of a "needle in a haystack" outcome that could drastically change like that. Use what phraseology you want, threading the needle, etc, but I would be much more confident with a blocking pattern present. We're still in a Nina, where storms will try to cut as much as possible due to the northern stream's dominance and the SE Ridge being ever present without the NAO to keep it in check. this could be the very rare instance where that rule is denied, but I would be much more confident if that ridge axis in the West slides east, or the blocking presence improves over the Davis Strait/Greenland. Isnt an arctic airmass supposed to be moving down in that time frame, JM? Perhaps its more of a timing issue, where it pushes the storm off shore. It's hard to see the storm for late next week cutting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 ECM ensemble means for 144-192 Does not seem to support the OP unless I am missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 at quick glance at 4am in the morning, those euro ens means have no resemblance to the op. Where is the low? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 at quick glance at 4am in the morning, those euro ens means have no resemblance to the op. Where is the low? lol All indications based on the GEM, GFS, and Euro ensembles are that the operational Euro run was an epic blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 All indications based on the GEM, GFS, and Euro ensembles are that the operational Euro run was an epic blip yeah remember what the euro did in the medium - long range with the norlun trough event? it blew it up one run into a massive miller B.. Euro has been having these kind of inconsistencies this winter, however we should still be able to pull off atleast a minor event out of the day 7 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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