yankeex777 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I can't stand that I managed to be home for 4 of the last 5 KU storms (that were KU in Jersey, not counting last week), and the only one that produced more than 10" back home was the one I missed Stay in Elko Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 at 60, southern wave a bit stronger.. hanging back to the west... that much stronger shortwave from earlier in the run is definitely impacting the picture in the atlantic a bit. it dug the trof in the atlantic more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 at 60, southern wave a bit stronger.. hanging back to the west... that much stronger shortwave from earlier in the run is definitely impacting the picture in the atlantic a bit. it dug the trof in the atlantic more. should def tap the GOM here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 more amplified and better phased, for sure this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Nobody is cheering for you to NOT get snow but if it shows a big hit for the coast, then of course we are going to cheer. Same as if it showed a big hit for you and us getting rain. None of us control the weather but if it shows a snowstorm for our backyard we're not going to hide that excitement because some people aren't getting it. I can't stand how everyone is just cheering this on in the faces of those who have been shafted with snow all season long. Why can't those who have been missing out enjoy the snow fun? I don't need 1-2' each storm but I good 6-10" storm would be nice to have. Way below the seasonal averages here for snow and this one that hit today 1.5" plus about some ice don't know how much but it was significant, not major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 broad low pressure forming..it doesn't know quite what to do... it looks like it's trying to initiate something in the Gulf in response to the stronger southern wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 At 69 hrs it really looks very much similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 No offense, but those who have been "shafted" the last two seasons have historically been the ones who receive the most snow. Just to keep thiings in perspective. I think he should lighten up a bit, but I can see his point. If you live an area that climatologically favors snow, and you repeatedly keep missing out to an area doesn't, it can get frustrating, especially to a snow lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 72 - low forming off delmarva. negatively tilted trof.. looks like NAM in some respects.. maybe not quite as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 75 - sliding out to sea, light to moderate QPF NYC and Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 72 - low forming off delmarva. negatively tilted trof.. looks like NAM in some respects.. maybe not quite as strong. hoping to get that to happen off VA or NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 No where near as strong as the NAM. Just have to belive the GFS is missing out on the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Part of the problem is what is happening north and east of the system, and amazingly, it can be traced way back to the beginning of the run... the initial shortwave over the great lakes moves into canada and gets strung out into shear vorticity. When this next system approaches, it prevents any ridging out of ahead of this system, so it's not able to get the divergent height fields to intensify it and move it northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Even though not as strong as the NAM, big trends in that direction. GFS looks like its going to take 1-2 more runs to figure things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z Ukie http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2011011812®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=0&F2=none&C1=hght&C2=tmpc&VEC=none&F1=p06i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Does the NAM have any support from the globals regarding QPF and strength? Even though not as strong as the NAM, big trends in that direction. GFS looks like its going to take 1-2 more runs to figure things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z Ukie http://weather.uwyo....EC=none&F1=p06i based on the orientation of the qpf field you'd at least expect it to be more similar to the nam but likely somewhere in the middle between the NAM and GFS. Not a bad solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Does the NAM have any support from the globals regarding QPF and strength? GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Does the NAM have any support from the globals regarding QPF and strength? GGEM has been a bomb with high QPF for at least 3 maybe 4 runs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Even though not as strong as the NAM, big trends in that direction. GFS looks like its going to take 1-2 more runs to figure things out. actually has trended away from it's previous two runs with a less amplified faster solution. So in this case the trend on the GFS is poor, not saying that I believe what it's currently depicting however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Watching the 500 mb loop of this on the NCEP site, and it sure looks pretty at the end, but a big part of this was still off the Vancouver/Washington coast at initialization, and I'd trust the 0Z runs more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like the GFS. Maybe the NAM is overdone. Still a good 3-6 inch type storm. 12z Ukie http://weather.uwyo....EC=none&F1=p06i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS a little stronger that 06z. Has been consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Man, you really do not get it do you? The reason why some posters are really upset is because many people in the rural areas of east central PA rely on normal heavy snow events for their income. Their normal snowfall is 50+ inches a year. Snow plowing has been virtually non-existent. Also many industries rely on water from the snow melt that is incorporated in the beverages that you drink like Deer Park, Niagara, Perrier, Coke, Yeungling and of course Samuel Adams from that heavy snowfall. This not only affects the beverage industry but the snow skiing industry and other food industries like Turkey Hill Ice Cream, Lebanon Bologna and your favorite, Hershey Foods. Before you get all "pissy" and open your mouth next time, think about what you are reallysaying. Last year, Eastern PA came real close to having a drought emergency and the way the storms are now orming, we maybe heading that direction again. These posters have the right to be upset and you should be a hell of lot more understanding and chill out by "relaxing" by trying to provide a more positive outlook. That might be one of the craziest responses I have ever heard. I'll give you the snow plowing but thats about it. It's not like were in a drought.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Man, you really do not get it do you? The reason why some posters are really upset is because many people in the rural areas of east central PA rely on normal heavy snow events for their income. Their normal snowfall is 50+ inches a year. Snow plowing has been virtually non-existent. Also many industries rely on water from the snow melt that is incorporated in the beverages that you drink like Deer Park, Niagara, Perrier, Coke, Yeungling and of course Samuel Adams from that heavy snowfall. This not only affects the beverage industry but the snow skiing industry and other food industries like Turkey Hill Ice Cream, Lebanon Bologna and your favorite, Hershey Foods. Before you get all "pissy" and open your mouth next time, think about what you are really saying. Last year, Eastern PA came real close to having a drought emergency and the way the storms are now forming, we maybe heading that direction again. These posters have the right to be upset and you should be a hell of lot more understanding and chill out by "relaxing" by trying to provide a more positive outlook. This post seems overly dramatic with a bit of a fairytale element too. for as many people as the snow helps...the snow also hurts. We rarely look at the flip-side here because we all want snow but powerful northeast snowstorms are extremely expensive and sometimes even create loss of life. That isn't to say we shouldn't root for them, but lets also not get all dramatic when you're in a rut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That might be one of the craziest responses I have ever heard. I'll give you the snow plowing but thats about it. It's not like were in a drought.... 10yr olds and 12yr olds all over this area are feeling the recession now. Whose driveway are they gonna shovel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sounds like you need to relax. Prior to the 09-10 winter the east coast was in a several year MECS drought. Eventually the pattern will change and you will get your snow. If your going to get all pissy just because your missing out on some snow I feel bad for you. What? Do you have zero knowledge of what has been happening around here over the last decade? You must be like 14 years old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Let's stay on topic analyzing the threat for Friday instead of bickering about snow droughts. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Wow, this thread really is showing the continued need to split NYC/LI from eastern PA at all costs necessary when it comes to winter storms. From someone who has lived in both locations over the past 30 years, they are two completely different worlds weatherwise. Here's hoping both areas get a solid 5-10" snow on Friday. Right now it looks good for both areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Nothing like grown men fighting over white stuff falling from the sky Anyways, the GFS shows that the plains sw is almost ashore, by 0z tonight we should have a very good idea of how that energy is going to act. The wildcard of course is the energy from up in canada, that is really the key element of this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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