SACRUS Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 yea, it doesn't happen too often.. I think I remember it happening sometime in the past, but I don't remember when. I wonder if it happened during 1995/1996.. man, that was a snowy year. It did hapen in 96 and also Feb 94 with the back to back snow storms for our area (NJ/NYC). Im trying to remember how the nam did in the plus 66 hour timeframe for this current event. Either way its a nice consistent signal on the nam and sref/ggem. Even the ukie seems a bit robust. GFS/ECM ops hopefeully trend today. Their ensembles have been more agressive too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Last February after the 2/6 storm we had a winter storm watch the day after the snowstorm. was that a localized event, I dont remember anything signifanct after 2/6? Also I would think pending the rest of the models jumping on board watches will be hoisted sometime tommorrow. I was thinking more in line with watches going up right as the warnings were allowed to expire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 [/b] How so? im not tombo, but i can say from a set up type of view, anytime a northern stream can dig to the south, the further the better..better amplification, deeper storm, possible h5 cutoff low etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 So far this winter doesn't appear to be hitting with historic monstrous storms ala last season and with the exception of the boxing day storm 12/26/10. What is making this winter snow are the smaller events literally every week; one after another, after another. And we're pretty much smack dead center in the winter season already. who knows what is in store as the season progresses. will be an interesting one. We got 24 inches in 8 hours, that is pretty unprecedented in my book. Somewhere between 44 and 50 inches already in mid FF county in CT. Pretty mind blowing really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 im not tombo, but i can say from a set up type of view, anytime a northern stream can dig to the south, the further the better..better amplification, deeper storm, possible h5 cutoff low etc.. Is that even plausible at this point? I still feel the gfs will probably end up the correct solution but maybe a little more QPF than currently indicated. I'm also feeling better about us having more snow than sleet/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 While NJ/NYC/CT/MA have done quite well so far this season, those west of the DE river have not done quite as well and some parts of PA have seen very little. I'm not suprised of their dissapointment when places not more than an hour away are getting dumped on. They probably thought they would be jackpoted by the typical storm track of a strong nina, but this has been anything but a typical nina. Definitly think though that even though the I-95 corridor will likely be the JP zone once again, Eastern PA gets in on warning criteria snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 We got 24 inches in 8 hours, that is pretty unprecedented in my book. Somewhere between 44 and 50 inches already in mid FF county in CT. Pretty mind blowing really. Serious question here. What will it take to get high QPF numbers back into central PA? This looks like the most favorable track I've seen all year for my area (South Central PA - southwest of Harrisburg) and I still only manage to squeeze our around .5 of QPF. Seems like every storm has that tight wester gradient to it this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Is that even plausible at this point? I still feel the gfs will probably end up the correct solution but maybe a little more QPF than currently indicated. I'm also feeling better about us having more snow than sleet/rain. different situation for sure but the NAM was the first one to hop on to an increased threat of a high QPF storm for the 11th-12th event. granted its outputs of nearly 1.5in for NYC ended up being way off (total was close to 0.9) but the GFS was for a long period of time keeping us in the .25 to .5 range. The last set-up may have been more of a mesoscale event where a model like the NAM would perform better, but I wouldn't discount the possibility for a higher QPF event like the GGEM has been painting (>1.00 qpf). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Those in PA that got screwed many times already should do well with this storm because it's a semi overrunning to coastal type event meaning large QPF field. Unless for some reason, it digs far to the south and leaves parts of PA with dry or light snow while slamming the coastal areas again, but that's highly unlikely I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Those in PA that got screwed many times already should do well with this storm because it's a semi overrunning to coastal type event meaning large QPF field. Unless for some reason, it digs far to the south and leaves parts of PA with dry or light snow while slamming the coastal areas again, but that's highly unlikely I think. We can surely hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 These patterns typically repeat storm after storm. You might have to wait till next year honestly. By the way, I have not done much better than you here. Areas 20 miles to the east of me get feet of snow and I get 2-3 inches every storm. Look at what happened last year also. Areas just to our south got killed and we got very little in comparison storm after storm. Anyway, what I am saying is to not get your hopes up for a break this winter, it is not likely. Not impossible, but not likely. Serious question here. What will it take to get high QPF numbers back into central PA? This looks like the most favorable track I've seen all year for my area (South Central PA - southwest of Harrisburg) and I still only manage to squeeze our around .5 of QPF. Seems like every storm has that tight wester gradient to it this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 different situation for sure but the NAM was the first one to hop on to an increased threat of a high QPF storm for the 11th-12th event. granted its outputs of nearly 1.5in for NYC ended up being way off (total was close to 0.9) but the GFS was for a long period of time keeping us in the .25 to .5 range. The last set-up may have been more of a mesoscale event where a model like the NAM would perform better, but I wouldn't discount the possibility for a higher QPF event like the GGEM has been painting (>1.00 qpf). yeah, in regards to last system, the set up was way different. That was a complete transfer of energy from an ULL to a coastal. This being a low traversing cross country and then blowing up along the coast/barclonic zone, the qpf field would be bigger. it seems like the GFS is the middle ground between the NAM and the EURO. But like Tombo mentioned earlier, these northern s/w's have been poorly sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The qpf output on this one already looks simlar to all the previous storms, with greater accumulations as you head east, then the models at the last minute have been tightening up the western edge. Happened every time so far. yeah, in regards to last system, the set up was way different. That was a complete transfer of energy from an ULL to a coastal. This being a low traversing cross country and then blowing up along the coast/barclonic zone, the qpf field would be bigger. it seems like the GFS is the middle ground between the NAM and the EURO. But like Tombo mentioned earlier, these northern s/w's have been poorly sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS just initialized....here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 was that a localized event, I dont remember anything signifanct after 2/6? Also I would think pending the rest of the models jumping on board watches will be hoisted sometime tommorrow. I was thinking more in line with watches going up right as the warnings were allowed to expire. I show you guys getting zero on 2/6. PHL recorded 28.5" on 2/6, then two days later were under WSW for the storm that blew up on 2/10-11. PHL got about 16" from that, and NNJ averaged about a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 While NJ/NYC/CT/MA have done quite well so far this season, those west of the DE river have not done quite as well and some parts of PA have seen very little. I'm not suprised of their dissapointment when places not more than an hour away are getting dumped on. They probably thought they would be jackpoted by the typical storm track of a strong nina, but this has been anything but a typical nina. Definitly think though that even though the I-95 corridor will likely be the JP zone once again, Eastern PA gets in on warning criteria snows. yes but the worst part about it is for my area this is the 3rd year in a row the big snows are missing by like a 100 miles. 2 years ago everything was to the north. last year everything was to the south. this year everything is to the east.. I'm not bittercasting, just stating facts. parts of central Pa really have been in the screw zone for quite somtime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I wouldn't necessarily say that. Last week's storm was very different from the 12/26 storm and gave the heaviest snow to areas 50 to 100 miles north and east than the last so there's no reason why a storm can't go in the reverse direction and blast the interior. Also we didn't really get the killer gradient last week. It seemed like all of northern NJ got at least 6" with even much of PA doing reasonably well (4-7") These patterns typically repeat storm after storm. You might have to wait till next year honestly. By the way, I have not done much better than you here. Areas 20 miles to the east of me get feet of snow and I get 2-3 inches every storm. Look at what happened last year also. Areas just to our south got killed and we got very little in comparison storm after storm. Anyway, what I am saying is to not get your hopes up for a break this winter, it is not likely. Not impossible, but not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I show you guys getting zero on 2/6. PHL recorded 28.5" on 2/6, then two days later were under WSW for the storm that blew up on 2/10-11. PHL got about 16" from that, and NNJ averaged about a foot. Their was one event last year which had a very tight north to south gradiant. The models were very consistent at showing that. PHI, south Jersey and the MA did extremely well. Meanwhile I had a winter storm warning in Morris County which was cancelled about two hours in when it was clear no precip was making it that far north. Points twenty miles to my south got 12"+ and I got nothing but virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 interestingly, the GFS has dramatic differences.. even out through only 30... although not a direct impact to the end of week storm, it's interesting how much stronger it is dealing with the shortwave over the great lakes this run.. also, the wave over Utah is more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 was that a localized event, I dont remember anything signifanct after 2/6? Also I would think pending the rest of the models jumping on board watches will be hoisted sometime tommorrow. I was thinking more in line with watches going up right as the warnings were allowed to expire. You had nothing on 2/6. You had over a foot on 2/10. 2/6 2/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 was that a localized event, I dont remember anything signifanct after 2/6? The 2/10 event (As Ray pointed out) and then the retro-snow-bomb on 2/25-26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I got 4 inches here with that one. The western edge tightened up again. The models showed me getting hammered until the last minute. I wouldn't necessarily say that. Last week's storm was very different from the 12/26 storm and gave the heaviest snow to areas 50 to 100 miles north and east than the last so there's no reason why a storm can't go in the reverse direction and blast the interior. Also we didn't really get the killer gradient last week. It seemed like all of northern NJ got at least 6" with even much of PA doing reasonably well (4-7") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The qpf output on this one already looks simlar to all the previous storms, with greater accumulations as you head east, then the models at the last minute have been tightening up the western edge. Happened every time so far. the trend has been that lows become stronger than depicted by guidance, thus we get a more wound up system but tighter qpf gradient. this also makes for more intense banding which basically steals qpf where the banding isnt present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I got 4 inches here with that one. The western edge tightened up again. The models showed me getting hammered until the last minute. Yeah that was awful... the ratios were terrible west of the superband. I had 10:1 near Trenton and most CoCoRaHS observers reported similar ratios further north. Without the dynamics of the superband, we were screwed. I was lucky to still reach 10". Most ratios in the superband were up near 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I can't stand how everyone is just cheering this on in the faces of those who have been shafted with snow all season long. Why can't those who have been missing out enjoy the snow fun? I don't need 1-2' each storm but I good 6-10" storm would be nice to have. Way below the seasonal averages here for snow and this one that hit today 1.5" plus about some ice don't know how much but it was significant, not major. I can't stand that I managed to be home for 4 of the last 5 KU storms (that were KU in Jersey, not counting last week), and the only one that produced more than 10" back home was the one I missed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS looking really amped up here, going to be better than 6z for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I can't stand how everyone is just cheering this on in the faces of those who have been shafted with snow all season long. Why can't those who have been missing out enjoy the snow fun? I don't need 1-2' each storm but I good 6-10" storm would be nice to have. Way below the seasonal averages here for snow and this one that hit today 1.5" plus about some ice don't know how much but it was significant, not major. Sounds like you need to relax. Prior to the 09-10 winter the east coast was in a several year MECS drought. Eventually the pattern will change and you will get your snow. If your going to get all pissy just because your missing out on some snow I feel bad for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 "JAN 20th-22nd potential thread".... banning everyone off topic back to the storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I can't stand how everyone is just cheering this on in the faces of those who have been shafted with snow all season long. Why can't those who have been missing out enjoy the snow fun? I don't need 1-2' each storm but I good 6-10" storm would be nice to have. Way below the seasonal averages here for snow and this one that hit today 1.5" plus about some ice don't know how much but it was significant, not major. No offense, but those who have been "shafted" the last two seasons have historically been the ones who receive the most snow. Just to keep thiings in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z GFS phasing more than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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