atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 What's it look like so far? ECM @ 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 only out to hr 78, storm is over the rockies I meant for the system around hr 60 and 72? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I meant for the system around hr 60 and 72? i updated that in the other thread...but its basically the same...front end snow/ice over to rain...bout .5 at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 so far for the late next week event, its way less amplified through hr 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 i updated that in the other thread...but its basically the same...front end snow/ice over to rain...bout .5 at most. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 through hr 108 the storm is in the central plains...the euro is holding some of the energy back...also the sw to ne gradient is now west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Where is the NAO in a neutral to positive state at this time? HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS INDICATED BYTELECONNECTIONS/FORECAST MJO INDEX ENTERING PHASE 7 AND 8/POSITIVE PNA AND NEG AO/NAO PATTERNS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL ANDENSEMBLE AGREEMENT YIELDING A MILD WRN CONUS AND FRIGID EAST.WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SINGLE DIGIT AND BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURESCAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CONUS NEXTWEEKEND. ROSENSTEIN I would've included the PNA in your bold highlight. Right now I see the major drivers of this pattern going forward as being the forecasted generally -AO allowing the cold to be available and what is currently a forecasted persistent +PNA pattern allowing it to spill into the US (and the MJO too). The NAO around the time frame of this possible storm as tombo referenced above with the CPC map, while having some spread is still relatively neutral (albeit prob negative) and as also mentioned.. east based. It's pretty early in the game yet to say whether or not a storm in the manner of the 12z euro solution comes to fruition.. theres def the potential for it. However, with a weaker -NAO I would def think the possibility of more of a coastal hugger is on the table if we had a storm come up in the manner of the European. In addition, the MJO phase is forecasted to be in phase 7 at the time of this potential event I believe. And I know trying to connect the phase to past northeast and great lakes storms can be a bit of a wash.. perhaps could get a bit of met assistance here as i'm not an MJO expert by any means but I always thought that phases 8/1 were considered "better" for an east coast snowstorm while something in 7 could foretell something further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It's trying to bring a shortwave into the Plains at hr 120..but it's very flat aloft. Who knows what kind of crap it could try to pull..the pattern looks good post 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 through hr 120 the storm is along the gulf, northern stream to over powering so far this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 126 the northern stream is starting to dive down with the energy the euro is leaving over texas... mod to hvy precip along the gulf states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 132 northern stream continuing to dive down in central plains...the precip along the gulf states has made it to the se and is taking on a more sw to ne appearence but it might not be enough rdging along the ec to bring it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looks like the surface low might try to escape east..lots of stuff going on within the mean trough. But man, does the 144 hour panel scream potential. Pretty cool stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 144 looks like its trying to develop a low around hse, but the flow isnt amplified enough to bring the storm up...it gets lgt precip to bout dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Day 6: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 150 low is escaping east, but like john mentioned certainly a lot of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Major trough amplification underway in the Central Plains at 150 hrs...very close to producing a big solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 156 the left over energy over txt has made it east and formed a 1004 low over central panhandle of fl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 150 low is escaping east, but like john mentioned certainly a lot of potential. Don't be surprised if it still tries to bring it up the coast post 156. The height field shows a shortwave still getting towards the base of the trough in the Gulf at 150 hrs and the flow is still amplifying. The first s/w went northeast but the second one could turn north/northeast and at least scrape the coast. Just over-analyzing a medium range model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 162 has that low just east of savannah, though the trof is neutral tilt so my guess would be it comes up to about hse and escapes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 162 has that low just east of savannah, though the trof is neutral tilt so my guess would be it comes up to about hse and escapes east. Doubt it escapes without at least giving the M/A a storm...the thickness and height lines are backing towards the coast..it's going to probably turn north and then northeast in the next few frames. Look at the height field W of the Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 168 sub 1004 low jues east of cape fear nc...trof is about neg tilted or slightly neg tilted... .1-.25 for va,wva,eky,etn,nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 EC DAY 7: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Doubt it escapes without at least giving the M/A a storm...the thickness and height lines are backing towards the coast..it's going to probably turn north and then northeast in the next few frames. Look at the height field W of the Mississippi. And the surface pressure field, there,s an iverted troff there extending into the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Boom...MECS at 174 It was only a matter of time until the shortwave went nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 174 has a sub 1000 low bout 75-100 miles east of orf... mdt precip nyc to southern va.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 And the surface pressure field, there,s an iverted troff there extending into the Lakes. Yes sir...DC gets a nice snowstorm at 174. Sub 1000 sfc low just N of HSE and SE of OC, MD. It's actually bringing in more energy through the Lakes now..wonder if it will tug this thing up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Boom...MECS at 174 It was only a matter of time until the shortwave went nuts. yea i wasnt sure it was going to turn the corner still looked pretty neutral tilt at hr 162...but yea you could see the euro left a piece of energy behind the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 990 off the NJ coast at 180 hrs. Big CCB and heavy snow for everybody at that hour. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hr 180 has a sub 992 low bout 75 miles east of acy ...beautiful snowstorm from dc to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Lol...captured aloft at 186..surface low is just SE of Montauk at 186 and bombing to sub 986mb ...still snowing heavily from PHL to New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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