SLAM22 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Please tell me that this is some kind of prank. Another 6+ inch snowstorm this weekend?? I'm planning on driving to Pittsburgh for the game on Saturday. This can't be happening AGAIN. theres never to much of a good thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM continues the aggressive phase by 60.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM continues the aggressive phase by 60.. yep... it certainly does.. it phased earlier than last run, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well, actually, I show that one as 945 mb when it makes it north of Maine up in Canada at 372 hrs, lol. yea.. I especially like the sub 950 mb low it is projecting in fantasy land.. lol I love winters that feature category 4 hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 When are these shortwaves expected in the RAOB if they're not already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hmmmm.. this could be rather interesting... it has really got strong vorticity in the northern stream at hour 63.. this might amplify the trof more in later time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 yep... it certainly does.. it phased earlier than last run, I believe. Low appears a little more south though and the 850 low is also a little more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 the trof is much tighter with this vorticity... the heights may not necessarily be much lower than last run, but this looks pretty interesting... this has my attention as this run finishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Quite a bit more energy dropping down and phasing into the bottom of the trough on this run at 63 hrs with slightly higher hightes on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 at 69, trof is going negative tilt... light to moderate precip already into philly and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 At 69 hrs this is starting to look really good. Low is taking shape southwest of previous run. Much more energy in the base of the trough this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 the trof is much tighter with this vorticity... the heights may not necessarily be much lower than last run, but this looks pretty interesting... this has my attention as this run finishes. You give any meteorologist hour 60 of the NAM at h5 and they'd say, that's a bomb on the east coast. And as for the heights, they are lower than 6z albeit slightly. What shocks me most is that as the models trend away from a phase, the NAM trends towards one. I don't necessarily trust it (given the range) but if it's right, our storm will already be in the books in 2.5 days. If there's no bomb on this I'll be shocked. That's a full phase if there ever was one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 72.. 1000mb low over the delmarva.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 at 72, low pressure trying to get act together near delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 997mb over the DelMarva at 72 hrs. .25 qpf has already fallen eastward to almost NYC. 850 line runs through central NJ from about just south of Philly to Ocean County, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 at 72, low pressure trying to get act together near delmarva Wherever that 'finger' of frontrunning precip points to and north should to decent with the storm and be mostly snow. (Stolen from JB). Per this Nam it is N/C NJ northward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hour 75 developing into a nice hit. can't wait to see 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 H5 is screaming bomb here, NAM is really bullish this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Hour 75. Colder then 6z and 0z. NAM is the most amplified model though. Rest of the 12z suite has to join: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 hr 75, heavy precip SE PA into NJ.. looks "warm" as surface 0 lines run through about 20miles NW of Philly..NYC mod snow.. 850 line thhrough south central NJ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM at 78 buries the tri state area...wow 3rd KU storm if this verifies..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 oofa! wow, most of NYC metro and long island get slammed at 78 with mega QPF, as is the case with the NAM often times.. but it looks enticing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 995 mb just off NJ at 75 hrs. another .25-.7 for most of NJ up to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NYC right at 32 at hour 75: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 wow @ 78.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Even more impressive, the storm goes from 1000 to 988 in 6 hours....you do the math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 984mb south of eastern LI at 78 hrs. max qpf .97 at JFK. from 72-78 hrs. Only area above 0 at 850 level is coastal NJ between 72-75 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM snowfall map on storm vista says wide spread 8-12 inches from Trenton northeastward across all of NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 then the storm buries boston..... Incredible bomb on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yea philly loooks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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