earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Northern stream is diving south rapidly now at 57 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Actually dramatically less amplified through 54 hrs IRT the shortwave (southern and northern shortwaves both included)..but heights are higher on the east coast w/ less confluent flow. Northern stream diving in with a much more SE component. Most global guidance has settled in on a more S-SE digging northern stream trough--worth noting the main belt of westerlies in the northern stream was partially within the Alaska RAOB network tonite. The GFS stopped with its amplification trends--so they very well may be catching on to better observations with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 03z ETA is just gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 78 hour NAM still finds a way to be north west...and warm, too. Surface low never gets to the coast..850 0c line is nearly at ABE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 78 hour NAM still finds a way to be north west...and warm, too. Surface low never gets to the coast..850 0c line is nearly at ABE. 850 line looks a little better for those in SE PA.. hopefully a step in a better direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 78 hour NAM still finds a way to be north west...and warm, too. Surface low never gets to the coast..850 0c line is nearly at ABE. Looks like snow-->sleet-->snow for NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 At hour 84, the low blows up while it is past the SE PA area.. 850 line back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like snow-->sleet-->snow for NYC metro. not that it matters, but nyc would go to rain on this run. 2m temp is a good bit abv frz and all the way up to 925mb is to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 not that it matters, but nyc would be rain on this run. 2m temp is a good bit abv frz and all the way up to 925mb is to Yeah Manhattan would probably mix with rain for a while but they'd start and end as snow. Probably a better storm for the suburbs, and I'm not just saying that because I live there. Nice CCB signal to change everyone back to snow as heights crash with the storm bombing out to our NE. Surface temps sort of unimportant this far out...the track is basically a snow-->rain (sleet outside the City)-->snow type of deal. There's a good amount of arctic air entrained in the system which would cause everyone to flip back to frozen quickly with the 1029mb arctic high coming down behind the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ECM ensemble mean holds and looks a lot like the op. It has definitely trended away from its earlier solution though--so I am not all too confident in the ECM at this point with the way it handles the western wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah Manhattan would probably mix with rain for a while but they'd start and end as snow. Probably a better storm for the suburbs, and I'm not just saying that because I live there. Nice CCB signal to change everyone back to snow as heights crash with the storm bombing out to our NE. Surface temps sort of unimportant this far out...the track is basically a snow-->rain (sleet outside the City)-->snow type of deal. There's a good amount of arctic air entrained in the system which would cause everyone to flip back to frozen quickly with the 1029mb arctic high coming down behind the storm. yup, just need the surface low to be further south. Like i said 0z gfs is beautiful for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 not that it matters, but nyc would go to rain on this run. 2m temp is a good bit abv frz and all the way up to 925mb is to It looks like a mix for both NYC and Philly. As expected, temps get colder turning any rain or sleet back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ECM ensemble mean holds and looks a lot like the op. It had definitely trended away from its earlier solution though--so I am not all too confident in the ECM at this point. do you get the indiv ens members? If so any amplified tracks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 yup, just need the surface low to be further south. Like i said 0z gfs is beautiful for everyone. Yes, 0z GFS is a great storm. The 6z NAM is pretty exciting too, definitely would be a dynamic storm with some good winds as the low bombs to 980mb and a 1030mb high comes in behind. CCB would have some great ratios too, but I can't get particularly excited until the Euro comes on board with more than a nuisance storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 do you get the indiv ens members? If so any amplified tracks? No I just get the freebie salvation army 24 hr maps from ECMWF--but the western wave has ticked E in the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I could be wrong but just glancing at the GFS through 54 this will be better based off the height field--northern stream a tad more amplified--but the western wave is a lot more E and this may be a full phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah maybe not. Full phase or not the advection patterns are not as good in the low levels through 60. GOM is not as in play here as much early on. Perhaps this will end about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah maybe not. Full phase or not the advection patterns are not as good in the low levels through 60. GOM is not as in play here. Perhaps this will end about the same. Sounds as if the GFS and ECM are now in agreement with the event being a minor to moderate one for the I-95 corridor area....brings about .3" QPF to NYC, all powder. Not a big storm but will be a nice addition to the snowpack before the cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sounds as if the GFS and ECM are now in agreement with the event being a minor to moderate one for the I-95 corridor area....brings about .3" QPF to NYC, all powder. Not a big storm but will be a nice addition to the snowpack before the cold shot. Yeah just saw E-Wall through 84. Not nearly as good as 0Z for the GFS. One major trend I have seen all night is a slightly less amplified northern stream and a slight SE component to the digging trough. IN short--a later phase and less GOM influence--this has huge implications for rapid positive feedbacks. In some ways this is good--and it is much more likely this is all snow for the region instead of a snow to rain to snow mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah just saw E-Wall through 84. Not nearly as good as 0Z for the GFS. One major trend I have seen all night is a slightly less amplified northern stream and a slight SE component to the digging trough. IN short--a later phase and less GOM influence--this has huge implications for rapid positive feedbacks. In some ways this is good--and it is much more likely this is all snow for the region instead of a snow to rain to snow mess. I do not have the good images from Raleighs cause they never updated but what is your thoughts on the NOGAPS being more N as well. Its not amped up by any means ... But with this being a fast progressive model...would we not think that this would be more to the SE then what it is? 6 Z run actually takes a similar track but ends up further NW at 84 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The look at 156 is pretty classic, a strong high in place and while the NAO is either neutral or east based that storm would seem to have more potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS looks great in the long range, tons of storminess and lots of cold air over Southeast Canada. Starting to look like a 93-94 type winter with slightly less cold and slightly more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The sun angle will be the only thing that will end this winter, not the pattern ending. We probaly have 10-12 more snow storms and 3 more Kocin events till we close the book on this winter. We'll get our 40's and rain this April, May and June. We'll be struggling this summer to get to 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 FWIW, around 70% of the Euro ensemble members are more amplified than the op from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The sun angle will be the only thing that will end this winter, not the pattern ending. We probaly have 10-12 more snow storms and 3 more Kocin events till we close the book on this winter. We'll get our 40's and rain this April, May and June. We'll be struggling this summer to get to 80. I'm gonna hold you to this After all the oil I'm going through this winter your "forecast" there means I won't have to run the AC as often this summer so the costs should balance out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS looks great in the long range, tons of storminess and lots of cold air over Southeast Canada. Starting to look like a 93-94 type winter with slightly less cold and slightly more snow. yea.. I especially like the sub 950 mb low it is projecting in fantasy land.. lol I love winters that feature category 4 hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 yea.. I especially like the sub 950 mb low it is projecting in fantasy land.. lol I love winters that feature category 4 hurricanes If you are talking about the storm on the GFS on Feb. 1 it's a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 through 45, NAM looking similar to 6Z.. perhaps the northern stream looking a little bit stronger so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Please tell me that this is some kind of prank. Another 6+ inch snowstorm this weekend?? I'm planning on driving to Pittsburgh for the game on Saturday. This can't be happening AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 at 54, it looks a bit more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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