jm1220 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Speak for yourself.. I could use something to track after this icy mess today(Tuesday). It does look like 0z NAM is an outlier though and the GGEM is a good compromise between the GFS and NAM. Still awaiting the euro tho For my backyard of course. Still though, the overrunning aspect of the storm looks to make it a nice event even if the coastal doesn't hug the coast. Nice southerly inflow aloft bringing Gulf moisture north. The coastal of course would be a bonus, but 3-6" or something like that seems pretty likely at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 not sure at what track the ukie takes but here it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Is the EURO showing the least amount out of all models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Go to this. Scroll down to "Vizaweb: web access to CMC products". It takes a day to learn, but is a treasure trove of GGEM and RGEM products. Thanks! Cool wesbite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Good sign, IMO that the Euro didn't take the more amped solution this run. Still plenty of time to watch for trends, and the Euro ensembles later on will be key also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Is the EURO showing the least amount out of all models? yes, for this region most anyone sees is maybe .25 and that would be up by nyc and li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i hate to ask this as I know its not my forum, but do you have qpf for eastern NC for that secondary low day 5 tombo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 yes, for this region most anyone sees is maybe .25 and that would be up by nyc and li i have always thought and continue to believe the second SW is the one that needs to be watched... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i hate to ask this as I know its not my forum, but do you have qpf for eastern NC for that secondary low day 5 tombo? no problem... the outer banks its lie .75-1.25...once out to greenville around .25 give or take. I wont be able to give u a precise amt till the run is over, but thats a rough ball park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 thanks so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 thanks so much what thread in the se are you in, ill post the exacts once the run is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Major analog in my opinion, Feb 3-5 1995. Especially given the current look of the models, with the ggem almost being a carbon copy of that storm http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1995/us0204.php NESIS 1 http://www1.ncdc.noa...950204-1.43.jpg Thats about the closest one I could find as well...this is a strange storm track wise the way its shown now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 the 2nd storm next week on the euro gets sheared out... has a 1040 high bout 200 miles west of maine but still brings some lgt precip to the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 the 2nd storm next week on the euro gets sheared out... has a 1040 high bout 200 miles west of maine but still brings some lgt precip to the region negative houston....another secs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ECMWF close but as Earth said it doesn't phase. At least the ECMWF trended closer to the remaining guidance and doesn't have the western wave digging through the intermountain W then rotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well currently right now you have the NAM ramped up.... You have the GGEM still ramped up with a decent amount of QPF You have the GFS & GFS ensembles more ramped up ... This is the UK Not sure what its QPF output would be .... So it seems like at this point majority of the guidance is ramped more then the ECM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 negative houston....another secs MECS now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 MECS now You are referring to the storm next Monday night correct?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 MECS now Can you elaborate Tombo? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You are referring to the storm next Monday night correct?. Can you elaborate Tombo? Thanks yea its the storm next tues....it develops a weak low off hse that moves ne then gets cut off and sits just off nj coast dumps light to then mod/hvy then back to lgt precip from hrs 174 to 216...about 1-1.25 qpf from phl to nyc and .75-1 from dc to balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 yea its the storm next tues....it develops a weak low off hse that moves ne then gets cut off and sits just off nj coast dumps light to then mod/hvy then back to lgt precip from hrs 174 to 216...about 1-1.25 qpf from phl to nyc and .75-1 from dc to balt Thanks Tombo im sure there is not a snowball's chance in hell that it snows for almost 2 days here and we get anything close to that much snow, but i guess it is another one of those EURO day 7 fantasy storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The "2nd" wave for Sunday misses OTS but scrapes the Carolinas. The storm tombo is talking about is something very similar to what the GFS has at ~180 hours, only the Euro slows it down even more than the GFS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The "2nd" wave for Sunday misses OTS but scrapes the Carolinas. The storm tombo is talking about is something very similar to what the GFS has at ~180 hours, only the Euro slows it down even more than the GFS did. yea and plus the euro has a beautiful 1040 high sitting in a nice spot to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 sorry tombo, i missed your post, I'm in the "Next Threat" thread on SE, its the one at the top... thanks again for all your help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Did the 03z SREFS look the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Did the 03z SREFS look the same? they came in less amplified than 21z...with .5 line from phl western burbs to bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 they came in less amplified than 21z...with .5 line from phl western burbs to bos Could be good they gave the same precip. for us while not as amped up. Don't want it TOO amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Everything looks to be happening a bit further east on the 06z NAM..which could definitely be good news for those nearer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Actually dramatically less amplified through 54 hrs IRT the shortwave (southern and northern shortwaves both included)..but heights are higher on the east coast w/ less confluent flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Actually dramatically less amplified through 54 hrs IRT the shortwave (southern and northern shortwaves both included)..but heights are higher on the east coast w/ less confluent flow. the gfs solution would be the best for everyone imho. A nice moderate snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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