Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

JAN 20th-22nd potential..


NaoPos

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 983
  • Created
  • Last Reply

heres the ggem 6 hr..takes a ches bay to nyc then just west of bos track

It's actually well south of NYC. You can tell when you look at the pressure contours that it's tucked in S of LI. That's why the 850 temps remain plenty cold. All of this is useless bickering, though..it won't make a difference when it changes in 6 hours.

f114.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

heres the ggem 6 hr..takes a ches bay to nyc then just west of bos track

http://www.meteo.psu...zA/cmcloop.html

Aargh. Quick thump snow to rain here. But a great track for interior PA and NY, which have largely been shafted so far this winter. Euro upcoming, let's hope it still shows a sheared out and weaker/less phased storm. If it's significantly more amped, it's a very bad sign for the coast, IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's actually well south of NYC. You can tell when you look at the pressure contours that it's tucked in S of LI. That's why the 850 temps remain plenty cold. All of this is useless bickering, though..it won't make a difference when it changes in 6 hours.

f90.gif

Well to be fair, despite the 84hr and 90hr frames showing below 0 850s in NYC, there is probably a time in between that 6 hr period where they go above or at least experience a warm layer somewhere.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With the thermal gradient on this storm, all you might need to be is west of the low, even if it is only about 5-10 miles or so, to stay all snow.

Yep. The storm's riding on the arctic boundary, so there's bound to be a huge gradient. I'm sure ultimately the low bombs as a result of it too because of the major baroclinicity from such a setup.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yep. The storm's riding on the arctic boundary, so there's bound to be a huge gradient. I'm sure ultimately the low bombs as a result of it too because of the major baroclinicity from such a setup.

The thing is, you're going to go back to heavy snow after the low passes you even if it does track over NYC, so it's probably a win-win situation. A stronger low pressure will track further north and cause more changeover issues, but may also have a better deformation band as the coastal bombs out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Major analog in my opinion, Feb 3-5 1995. Especially given the current look of the models, with the ggem almost being a carbon copy of that storm

http://www.meteo.psu...1995/us0204.php

NESIS 1

http://www1.ncdc.noa...950204-1.43.jpg

Wouldn't mind that one in the least bit. Even though we changed over to rain, we dumped 6-10" in the NYC area before it happened. Also, the rain lasted for maybe an hour at most before we dryslotted. I was only 9 at the time, but distinctly remember being up for most of the storm. Some freakishly heavy snow during the early morning before ending as a brief period of much lighter rain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The thing is, you're going to go back to heavy snow after the low passes you even if it does track over NYC, so it's probably a win-win situation. A stronger low pressure will track further north and cause more changeover issues, but may also have a better deformation band as the coastal bombs out.

The 0z Canadian forms a mid-level cutoff late and further north than its two previous runs. So it's mostly a front side storm and less impressive overall. I'm not sure there would be significant snow following any change back.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Aargh. Quick thump snow to rain here. But a great track for interior PA and NY, which have largely been shafted so far this winter. Euro upcoming, let's hope it still shows a sheared out and weaker/less phased storm. If it's significantly more amped, it's a very bad sign for the coast, IMO.

Speak for yourself.. I could use something to track after this icy mess today(Tuesday). It does look like 0z NAM is an outlier though and the GGEM is a good compromise between the GFS and NAM. Still awaiting the euro tho

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Major analog in my opinion, Feb 3-5 1995. Especially given the current look of the models, with the ggem almost being a carbon copy of that storm

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1995/us0204.php

NESIS 1

http://www1.ncdc.noa...950204-1.43.jpg

Nice analog--has a very similar look to the height field.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

hr 84 has a sub 1004 low about 100-125 miles east of toms river....lgt precip every where..

.1-.25 precip ttn to orh...

its the same as 12z

so it just doesnt amplify enough ehh? Not the worst solution at this juncture as too amplified means rain for many locales. Something in between like the gfs I guess would be ideal with a nice 3-6/4-8" type event followed by a cold snap.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

so it just doesnt amplify enough ehh? Not the worst solution at this juncture as too amplified means rain for many locales. Something in between like the gfs I guess would be ideal with a nice 3-6/4-8" type event followed by a cold snap.

yea its nowhere near amplified as the nam or ggem.

its prob like an inch from phl to dc and 1-2 for nyc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...