jm1220 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Isobars looks East to even Southeast on that, would that low be strong enough for cross isobaric flow and keep the marine layer from ruining it for LI/NYC? If the low tracks over DC/Philly, no. The NAM's solution would almost entirely be rain, even inland because of roaring south winds and WAA. You'd have to be over the Poconos and Catskills to stay snow with a track like that. We need a less phased outcome like the GFS to have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 If the low tracks over DC/Philly, no. The NAM's solution would almost entirely be rain, even inland because of roaring south winds and WAA. You'd have to be over the Poconos and Catskills to stay snow with a track like that. We need a less phased outcome like the GFS to have a shot. With a surface temp below freezing i would have to disagree that it would be plain rain on the NAM...to the north of the big cities.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sounds like this could be one for the areas that have gotten shafted (PA north of 80, Poconos to UNV). I hope you're right about this... What's the time period that we are looking at? Disruptive storm for schools on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 If the low tracks over DC/Philly, no. The NAM's solution would almost entirely be rain, even inland because of roaring south winds and WAA. You'd have to be over the Poconos and Catskills to stay snow with a track like that. We need a less phased outcome like the GFS to have a shot. The 0z GFS tracks the storm just south of DC, and NYC stays all snow easily. There's a pretty cold antecedent airmass and it's an overrunning event, so I wouldn't mind if the track came slightly further north than the 0z GFS, although the 0z NAM was too close a call for NYC metro. I don't think anyone should be too worried about the inland solutions yet, as the ECM has the storm mostly out to sea with much less precipitation. A smart call would be to hedge between the GFS and the Euro, discarding the NAM which is usually garbage and overphased at 84 hours. With a surface temp below freezing i would have to disagree that it would be plain rain on the NAM...to the north of the big cities.. North of big cities would probably be sleet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I just saw the gfs solution and the NAM solution. While the NAM solution is possible given lack of 50/50 low, the NAM has a habit of overphasing systems. Not to mention the NAM is horribly inaccurate outside of 48 hours. I'm going with the gfs on this one for now and not because it gives me snow, but because it's more reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 With a surface temp below freezing i would have to disagree that it would be plain rain on the NAM...to the north of the big cities.. The low is considerably stronger on the NAM than this current storm, and again there's no major high to keep cold air in place. This current storm is also tracking east of almost all of us, mitigating the huge surge of warm southerly winds a strong low tracking over DC would produce. I agree though that some favored areas would have pockets of freezing rain in this setup. But it's the NAM at 84 hours, which is hugely liable to change. The overall trend on multiple models is much more important at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The low is considerably stronger on the NAM than this current storm, and again there's no major high to keep cold air in place. This current storm is also tracking east of almost all of us, mitigating the huge surge of warm southerly winds a strong low tracking over DC would produce. I agree though that some favored areas would have pockets of freezing rain in this setup. But it's the NAM at 84 hours, which is hugely liable to change. The overall trend on multiple models is much more important at this juncture. This is nothing like the current storm, this is an overrunning event. The current storm has a primary cutting through the Great Lakes, which is producing strong WAA at 850mb. You can see on the GFS that 850s stay plenty cold enough even with the low tracking near DC; it's going to form a coastal which turns winds around to the northeast. Even the 0z NAM is probably snow-->sleet->snow for NYC, especially the suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 a little off topic for this thread, but looks like gfs has another chance for a storm next tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 a little off topic for this thread, but looks like gfs has another chance for a storm next tuesday? h5 is a mess don't even bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is nothing like the current storm, this is an overrunning event. The current storm has a primary cutting through the Great Lakes, which is producing strong WAA at 850mb. You can see on the GFS that 850s stay plenty cold enough even with the low tracking near DC; it's going to form a coastal which turns winds around to the northeast. Even the 0z NAM is probably snow-->sleet->snow for NYC, especially the suburbs. Probably more sleet than snow with the NAM, but the overrunning becomes a coastal as the low is on the coast. When it does that, it could easily draw in warmer air from the ocean and give us rain. Not that I think that's going to happen but it is a possibility. FWIW, it really looks like 1994 out there, another threat on the gfs Day 8 except this time we have a strong high right above us, I just hope it''s more snow than sleet. I can't stand sleet although I must say Feb and March 2007 were pretty epic with all of that sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Probably more sleet than snow with the NAM, but the overrunning becomes a coastal as the low is on the coast. When it does that, it could easily draw in warmer air from the ocean and give us rain. Not that I think that's going to happen but it is a possibility. FWIW, it really looks like 1994 out there, another threat on the gfs Day 8 except this time we have a strong high right above us, I just hope it''s more snow than sleet. I can't stand sleet although I must say Feb and March 2007 were pretty epic with all of that sleet. I was in Middlebury, VT for Feb/March 2007, I can guarantee you it was a lot more epic there! GFS does look like 93-94...tons of moderate snow events with brutal cold in between. We're in the midst of an epic winter, boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 a little off topic for this thread, but looks like gfs has another chance for a storm next tuesday? I read on another Board earlier there is another chance of a storm a few days after the One on Fri but didn't hear any details.. Apparently if it is showing on GFS it has been showing that for a couple runs at least since I read that before the latest GFS came out.. If that happened that would be 3 storms within 7 days pretty darn active in what is turning into an Epic Winter as far as storms are concerned.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is nothing like the current storm, this is an overrunning event. The current storm has a primary cutting through the Great Lakes, which is producing strong WAA at 850mb. You can see on the GFS that 850s stay plenty cold enough even with the low tracking near DC; it's going to form a coastal which turns winds around to the northeast. Even the 0z NAM is probably snow-->sleet->snow for NYC, especially the suburbs. I'll have to respectfully disagree. For the far north suburbs, maybe. For the city and immediate suburbs, highly doubtful. The 0z NAM at 84 has a 20-25kt east wind from NYC east, and the 0c line at the surface rapidly retreating west. Verbatim, that's an absolute disaster for anyone near the coast. Tomorrow, there's a strong onshore fetch at the immediate coast only, but it decreases to near nothing just inland. There's maybe a couple of hour window before this to thump snow/frozen on Friday on this NAM run, but that's gone very quickly with this kind of torching fetch. There's also the strengthening 988mb low near Annapolis on that frame, while the current low gets maybe down to 1000mb and tracks east of the coast. The WAA for Friday's event (if this NAM run is right which it won't be at 84hr) would be several orders of magnitude stronger than the event tonight/tomorrow which in terms of strength is a lot weaker. It's all about the timing/location/strength of the phase. Hopefully the GFS is correct and it can stay offshore/weaker, because we have no block to force a redevelopment or offshore track this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 anyone have the oz ggem yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GGEM similar to the GFS..probably deeper and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'll have to respectfully disagree. For the far north suburbs, maybe. For the city and immediate suburbs, highly doubtful. The 0z NAM at 84 has a 20-25kt east wind from NYC east, and the 0c line at the surface rapidly retreating west. Verbatim, that's an absolute disaster for anyone near the coast. Tomorrow, there's a strong onshore fetch at the immediate coast only, but it decreases to near nothing just inland. There's maybe a couple of hour window before this to thump snow/frozen on Friday on this NAM run, but that's gone very quickly with this kind of torching fetch. There's also the strengthening 988mb low near Annapolis on that frame, while the current low gets maybe down to 1000mb and tracks east of the coast. The WAA for Friday's event (if this NAM run is right which it won't be at 84hr) would be several orders of magnitude stronger than the event tonight/tomorrow which in terms of strength is a lot weaker. It's all about the timing/location/strength of the phase. Hopefully the GFS is correct and it can stay offshore/weaker, because we have no block to force a redevelopment or offshore track this time. Torching fetch? NAM at 84 has nearly everyone around freezing...what are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GGEM similar to the GFS..probably deeper and wetter. does it still look as good as last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GGEM similar to the GFS..probably deeper and wetter. gem looks like it tracks the low over phl and nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 gem looks like it tracks the low over phl and nyc Huh? The surface low is over the Chesapeake Bay at 84 hours http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Torching fetch? NAM at 84 has nearly everyone around freezing...what are you talking about? It's retreating very fast at 84, particularly from NYC area south/east. Look at the last few frames here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_0z/etaloop.html You might be right in that areas north of I-80 thump for a few hours before changing over. This could be a thump SNE type solution before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 gem looks like it tracks the low over phl and nyc Looks like that with the big L . GGEM tracks the storm off the south Jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 does it still look as good as last run? Looks like a coastal hugger to me, the 500mb pattern doesn't look too great with a lack of a 50/50 low and east based - NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 gem looks like it tracks the low over phl and nyc Looks like the low is well below us in the map John posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Huh? The surface low is over the Chesapeake Bay at 84 hours http://www.weatherof...ast/133_100.gif hr 96 looks to have it in se nh...so i just drew a straight line from that and that would take it just east of phl and over nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Here is the 0z GFS ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hr 96 looks to have it in se nh...so i just drew a straight line from that and that would take it just east of phl and over nyc no way we escape mixed precip/rain from a track like that still 3 days so plenty of time for the track to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Here is the 0z GFS ensemble mean Not bad. The GFS Ensm did very well during the last storm and the mean is a great track for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This one could be a nail biter for us and it will completely depend on the track. There are generally two options on the table. Either the low stays offshore and we get mostly snow or its a coastal hugger and we'll probably go from snow to sleet/rain than back to snow. This one will probably be decided in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Based on the ewall graphics, the GGEM tracks the low right over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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