SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The NAM has been good all year but only once has it been right at 84 hours and that was with the Cape Cod Mid-december snow event, so I wouldn't worry yet but obviously a rainy scenario as I've said for days is possible for the coast with the +NAO. The NAM is showing a very rare track on its 00Z run to top it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Could be confusing, this is weather not off broadway..... My apologies good sir! However PHL with southerly winds some would label it a torch so not completely dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well, lets see I have seen people talking about the ECM and how accurate the ECM is and how it really does not have a storm etc. I have seen people talking about the GGEM and how it over phases etc. Well now the NAM supports the GGEM with intensity etc but its the NAM and temps etc in the long range. Furthermore the GGEM which sometimes can have a warm bias at 12 Z has all basically snow...So i feel pretty comfortable when saying that I am not worried about what the NAM shows when the GGEM has Not saying a rain storm isn't possible, but I agree - temps and exact track on the 84-hour NAM aren't worth getting that upset about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 850 low on the NAM is too far north for SEPA, they go over....that H85 low development will be key, how far norths it develops is crucial in determining the R/S line. Once the coastal takes over, everyone should go back to snow with winds from the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 In this scenario it isn't. It has a ton of backing from SREF and they have been hinting at potential for extreme amplification and a very active eastern PAC ridge. GFS/ECM keep amplifying the northern stream diving south. We will see though--this NAM is not unrealistic though--good or bad. The 0z NAM is more exciting than recent runs, especially the GFS! It continues to dig the longwave trof further south and has a very favorable incorporation of the southern stream s/w. The pronounced vortmax at the trof base is now showed in the Tenn Valley instead of Pa. It we continue down this path the ante is significantly increased. And I agree the NA patterned could be characterized as amplified, but I am a little skeptical of the suggestion of extreme amplification. I will take another look at the SREFs. Verbatim this looks wet for I-95 but I think the 850mb low center reforms just offshore and temps crash in time for most just inland, esp 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The 0z NAM is more exciting than recent runs, especially the GFS! It continues to dig the longwave trof further south and has a very favorable incorporation of the southern stream s/w. The pronounced vortmax at the trof base is now showed in the Tenn Valley instead of Pa. It we continue down this path the ante is significantly increased. And I agree the NA patterned could be characterized as amplified, but I am a little skeptical of the suggestion of extreme amplification. I will take another look at the SREFs. Verbatim this looks wet for I-95 but I think the 850mb low center reforms just offshore and temps crash in time for most just inland, esp 40N. Yeah NAM is definitely as amped as it would possibly get and a perfect phase (although the results with mixing/rain aren't necessarily good). It has a lot of parallels to last storm where the operational globals were flat and weak with the mesoscale models leading the way in the height field (much more amplified) with the operational globals making slow changes to match. Same thing is happening again here. The SREF mean 500 height field is amazingly amplified this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Still would be a great snowstorm here as the changeover issues wouldn't occur as I'd stay west of the low... the big winners so far this winter would miss out though or at least mix/change for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Still would be a great snowstorm here as the changeover issues wouldn't occur as I'd stay west of the low... the big winners so far this winter would miss out though or at least mix/change for a time. The NAM is not a lock either by any stretch and this could easily stay all snow and off coast. NAM is an extreme example of what could happen if the phase was perfect--and perfectly timed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The NAM is not a lock either by any stretch and this could easily stay all snow and off coast. NAM is an extreme example of what could happen if the phase was perfect--and perfectly timed. so the nam is as phased and as amp'd as this thing can get? i can deal with that, nam likes to do this in its long range, but the NAO is not exactly favorable for a more supressed track..keep up the great analysis Baroclinic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 gfs looks bout the same maybe a little less amplified through hr 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Meh. The ridge out west is really far west, and we don't have the blocking to broaden the trough to compensate for that. For the prior two big events, we had blocking which helped to sharpen the trough to compensate for a too far east ridge for the Boxing Day Blizzard, and we had the blocking which helped to broaden the trough to compensate for a too far west ridge in the Jan 11-12th event. But this time, the ridge out west is more amplified than the past event, and there is not much blocking to help compensate for that. I think a NAM solution is a very large possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I don't think GFS will be as good as 18Z based on the way the height field is configured so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I don't think GFS will be as good as 18Z based on the way the height field is configured so far. the low is stronger but further south. qpf is about the same and its colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 994 just inside the benchmark at 87 hours..not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 the low is stronger but further south. qpf is about the same and its colder. Let's hope the GFS has the right idea about a later phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The thermal gradient this thing has is fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Meh. The ridge out west is really far west, and we don't have the blocking to broaden the trough to compensate for that. For the prior two big events, we had blocking which helped to sharpen the trough to compensate for a too far east ridge for the Boxing Day Blizzard, and we had the blocking which helped to broaden the trough to compensate for a too far west ridge in the Jan 11-12th event. But this time, the ridge out west is more amplified than the past event, and there is not much blocking to help compensate for that. I think a NAM solution is a very large possibility. I absolutely agree. I hate being a debbie-downer, but this reminds me of many of the events we had in 07-08/08-09, where the event at first looked to be favorable for us, but trended more and more amplified until it became a cutter or Apps runner, with no semblance of blocking to stop it. The phasing looks to be trending towards being earlier and stronger, which is horrible news for most of us who want a cold solution. With no blocking to stop it and the northern stream dominating the way it does in Ninas, the storm has nowhere to go but roar towards the Apps or even lakes. Since this one still looks to get going late, it won't track that far west, but quite possibly more than enough for it to be wet for the coast and cities. This overall isn't a setup that excites me that much for a major storm around here. When the -NAO returns I'll get more optimistic, but don't be surprised if this trends into an inland runner overall. Hopefully the foreign models tonight stay relatively flat. If the Euro majorly amplifies tonight, IMO we're in big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Some areas are pushing .5-.75 QPF, all snow on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well I was wrong--it pulled NW late and is actually even deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Buckle your seat belts. This could get interesting. Well I was wrong--it pulled NW late and is actually even deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I absolutely agree. I hate being a debbie-downer, but this reminds me of many of the events we had in 07-08/08-09, where the event at first looked to be favorable for us, but trended more and more amplified until it became a cutter or Apps runner, with no semblance of blocking to stop it. The phasing looks to be trending towards being earlier and stronger, which is horrible news for most of us who want a cold solution. With no blocking to stop it and the northern stream dominating the way it does in Ninas, the storm has nowhere to go but roar towards the Apps or even lakes. Since this one still looks to get going late, it won't track that far west, but quite possibly more than enough for it to be wet for the coast and cities. This overall isn't a setup that excites me that much for a major storm around here. When the -NAO returns I'll get more optimistic, but don't be surprised if this trends into an inland runner overall. Hopefully the foreign models tonight stay relatively flat. If the Euro majorly amplifies tonight, IMO we're in big trouble. Sounds like this could be one for the areas that have gotten shafted (PA north of 80, Poconos to UNV). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Isobars looks East to even Southeast on that, would that low be strong enough for cross isobaric flow and keep the marine layer from ruining it for LI/NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The thermal gradient this thing has is fantastic It phases in a piece of the PV, which means it has an incredible amount of cold air to draw from. One aspect of the storm I like is that the overrunning is into a true arctic high, which means good ratios and that the storm is probably far enough south for NYC metro to stay mostly snow. Once again, you and I have much less to worry about being north and west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sounds like this could be one for the areas that have gotten shafted (PA north of 80, Poconos to UNV). I agree. At the very least there the overrunning over the Arctic boundary could lay down a pretty significant snow, and quite possibly the low tracks closely enough to be a major event. I don't see much of a way PA loses, unless the low somehow goes absolutely bonkers and rides the Apps-which I think no one believes is likely right now. The NAM is about as amped as it gets and it only manages an I-95 track. The cold coming behind the storm as well looks absolutely brutal. Even though it never snowed quite that much in State College when I was there, the cold combined with the frozen ground/snow made it look like an Arctic tundra at times. Pretty freakin' awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Wait a second...could this event actually have the potential to be somewhere in between a HECS and major suppression?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NW Nj and Eastern PA could be a big Winner With a track closer to the coast with the upcoming storm but they are the areas who have had the least so far so it is OK to share the wealth.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Wait a second...could this event actually have the potential to be somewhere in between a HECS and major suppression?!? Not suppression, but a dud yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NW Nj and Eastern PA could be a big Winner With a track closer to the coast with the upcoming storm but they are the areas who have had the least so far so it is OK to share the wealth.. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 <br />Wait a second...could this event actually have the potential to be somewhere in between a HECS and major suppression?!?<img src='http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/default/whistle.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />HECS... I don't think... Not based on what the current guidance says, but hey, who knows what can happen.. MECS... Certainly a possibility.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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