NaoPos Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 incoming phase at 69... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 FWIW, here is the RSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Goodness sakes the NAM is insane. May be almost too good since it is no NW with the low. Mixing is will be a major concern like the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Goodness sakes the NAM is insane. May be almost too good since it is no NW with the low. Mixing is will be a major concern like the CMC. Likely overamplified, as is typical of the NAM in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Goodness sakes the NAM is insane. May be almost too good since it is no NW with the low. Mixing is will be a major concern like the CMC. oo you gone done it... 84 NAM rain for philly and burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised at a coastal hugger track since we lost the atlantic pattern, the CMC track certainly cannot be ruled out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 oo you gone done it... 84 NAM rain for philly and burbs yea its an absolute torch. Earlier it phases the worse its going to be for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Close call for NYC at hour 84. The freezing line is right on top of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Likely overamplified, as is typical of the NAM in this range. In this scenario it isn't. It has a ton of backing from SREF and they have been hinting at potential for extreme amplification and a very active eastern PAC ridge. GFS/ECM keep amplifying the northern stream diving south. We will see though--this NAM is not unrealistic though--good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Where is the stinkin' blocking when we really need it.......can only hope this over-phased at the moment. Seasonal trend has been for later phase so I'm hoping that will play out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Close call for NYC at hour 84. The freezing line is right on top of the area. Yeah, it's not like the 0c 850 line is near Buffalo. And this IS the 84-hour NAM. With the suppressive Euro, I'm just glad it stayed with the storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 oo you gone done it... 84 NAM rain for philly and burbs probably would change back to snow... i get the feeling we're gonna nail this one down in the next day or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM for NYC would most likely be snow to a mix/rain then back to moderate to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Close call for NYC at hour 84. The freezing line is right on top of the area. close call? that certainly wouldnt be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ugh!! Torch PHL Torch? I wouldn't use that word. It's not that far off even with the early phase typical of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The storm is tracking east so PHL and NYC would still see a decent hit of snow even though it changes to rain or sleet for a while as per the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Torch? I wouldn't use that word. It's not that far off even with the early phase typical of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I can not believe people would be worried about surface temps at 84 hours out..however its not a torch either.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not good from NYC/PHL/DCA...is it right? Meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I can not believe people would be worried about surface temps at 84 hours out..however its not a torch either.... it's really more about track than simply surface temps. with that track, it would rain. not that the NAM track is necessarily correct, but with that track... rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I can not believe people would be worried about surface temps at 84 hours out..however its not a torch either.... Yes i agree, buts its model analysis, thats what we are doing. Look at The mid levels they are torched, southerly wind. Allentown even changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Torch? I wouldn't use that word. It's not that far off even with the early phase typical of the NAM. I was just trying to be dramatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I can not believe people would be worried about surface temps at 84 hours out..however its not a torch either.... Yeah the panic on this board gets quite high. It would not be all snow, but to me a torch is mid 40s or higher. The Euro is so suppressive it doesn't have a storm yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yes i agree, buts its model analysis, thats what we are doing. Look at The mid levels they are torched, southerly wind. Allentown even changes over. Exactly. I'd rather have a likelyhood of precipitation (of any sort) for the end of the week instead of an OTS storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 it's really more about track than simply surface temps. with that track, it would rain. not that the NAM track is necessarily correct, but with that track... rain. Gents! Just trying to inject some fun. I fully understand much can change for the better or worse for that matter. Such sensitive folks in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 glad its only monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 If it phases early like that, look out. Not saying it will happen, but it's a concern of mine. A solution like this in my opinion is considerably more likely than an OTS miss. Phasing this season has been as often and strong as possible. Without a blocking ridge north of us, there's nothing to stop it from becoming a nasty inland cutter if the phase is as strong and early as the NAM sees it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Its only Monday and its snowing outside now....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I was just trying to be dramatic Could be confusing, this is weather not off broadway..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yes i agree, buts its model analysis, thats what we are doing. Look at The mid levels they are torched, southerly wind. Allentown even changes over. Well, lets see I have seen people talking about the ECM and how accurate the ECM is and how it really does not have a storm etc. I have seen people talking about the GGEM and how it over phases etc. Well now the NAM supports the GGEM with intensity etc but its the NAM and temps etc in the long range. Furthermore the GGEM which sometimes can have a warm bias at 12 Z has all basically snow...So i feel pretty comfortable when saying that I am not worried about what the NAM shows when the GGEM has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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