Snowtrain Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think the duration argument is kinda weak. We've had plenty of hard hitting events that last 12 hours or less. Again, I'm not trying to argue that this is going to be an epic HECS. But I think there's some argument (or maybe I am misunderstanding a bit, could be) going on that this event is mundane. I don't think you can call it mundane given the dynamics being portrayed by most guidance at this point. The shortwave is very strong, the dynamics and forcing are also very strong. Getting a 980's mb low to form from a northern stream shortwave diving southeast..and having it develop so far south as some models indicate is not your run of the mill mid-latitude cyclone. So I guess that's where both sides of the argument can come from. I'm not saying this is an epic event aka a HECS..but I also don't think it's a mundane run of the mill cyclone. It has the potential to falll into the "MECS" category if all the pieces come together. By the way, some great discussion ongoing in this thread. Good stuff dudes. MECS I can def see "on the table" per the info we have to date and I agree that the dynamic potential is great as have all of the storms we have experinced the last two winters. The great thing about it is there is so much left to one's own interpretations of what classifies as a HECS or MECS. Fore me personally, when the word Historical is used then I feel like I could pick up the phone and call somebody in DC/PHL/NYC/BOS and ask them "hey do remember such and such event on such and such date" and all of them to know what I was talking about! To be mundane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Haha yea sorry about that. I just meant epic how this thing went from a strung out low coming across the states to now bombing off the coast. Epic "turn of events" is what I was aiming for haha. Well I feel exactly the same as you about this. I love having another clearly defined snow threat to follow in the mid-range. And thanks for the clarification. I didn't mean to critique you... actually I was just piggybacking off your post to make a general point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well yes and no. All the teleconnectors in the world don't produce epic storms alone--but the right synoptic/meso "ingredients" as well. Some events require much more things to go "right" for them to happen at all--and some simply have a larger window of opportunity to develop than others. But yeah I agree, the dud threat is always there. At least with this one we will know somewhat soon and not have to wait 24-48 hours before the event. Yeah, that's pretty much what I was driving at. I just feel like too many events are being coined "thread the needle" type events. It's become a way overused and misused phrase the past few winter season's. I agree on tonight's models. It's actually pretty rare that we have an important model cycle this far out, but with the aircraft data helping us out..tonight could be pretty telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I agree on tonight's models. It's actually pretty rare that we have an important model cycle this far out, but with the aircraft data helping us out..tonight could be pretty telling. Just to be clear, I screwed up in my initial post. The flight was in the Atlantic to help with the current storm, not in the Pacific. Sorry for the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 21z SREFs are really honking. 996mb mean surface low off the coast, and 0.5" precip in 24 hours over part of the area with the storm still ongoing and deepening off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Just to be clear, I screwed up in my initial post. The flight was in the Atlantic to help with the current storm, not in the Pacific. Sorry for the confusion. Well we can still consider them important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It was the Atlantic, not Pacific. My bad. Anyway, here are the two places I look: http://www.nhc.noaa....reconlist.shtml http://weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus/ Thanks, I will give it a look over. Atlantic seems odd to me--I wonder who that is benefiting? Granted I don't know much about the recon observation flights outside of tropical work--but the Atlantic seems like an odd destination for US weather purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Thanks, I will give it a look over. Atlantic seems odd to me--I wonder who that is benefiting? Granted I don't know much about the recon observation flights outside of tropical work--but the Atlantic seems like an odd destination for US weather purposes. They did the same thing for the Jan 7-8 event. I'm not really sure why the downstream pattern makes that much difference, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Very impressive SREF mean, looks like a nice 3-6"/4-8" event over the area. 0z NAM should be really interesting especially with that new data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 21z SREFs are really honking. 996mb mean surface low off the coast, and 0.5" precip in 24 hours over part of the area with the storm still ongoing and deepening off the coast. The mean looks good but there is A LOT of spread....the individuals would probably show some coastal huggers with some great hits mixed in as well and a couple of whiffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 0Z NAM running. Minor differences through 30 hours, but nothing of interest really yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not sure what to think. NAM is farther W and slower with the western trough. Not necessarily good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not sure what to think. NAM is farther W and slower with the western trough. Not necessarily good. yea through hr 45, it looks like its going to leave more enrgy back and not fully bringing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It's really digging the energy this run..all the way back to the Rockies with plenty of energy in the trough at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 yea through hr 45, it looks like its going to leave more enrgy back and not fully bringing it out. I'm not really sure how much it's going to leave behind..the orientation of the h5 heights and the trough should move things to the east..it's just a matter of if it's fast enough or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It's really digging the energy this run..all the way back to the Rockies with plenty of energy in the trough at that time. Wonder what it all means...hmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That's a pretty good look to me at hour 51-54. Hard to actually predict where it's going, though. But to me it looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It could be better or worse. Farther S and GOM may be even more in play. But it needs to eject out of the Rockies fast or it will leave too much of the wave out in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm not really sure how much it's going to leave behind..the orientation of the h5 heights and the trough should move things to the east..it's just a matter of if it's fast enough or not. the sv nam h5 maps blow, its hard to tell, but it looks like its digging alot more in the sw. The trof is Aligned more sw to ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Man, the ridge in the Eastern Pacific is really driving this entire pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Man, the ridge in the Eastern Pacific is really driving this entire pattern. Yeah the 0Z NAM has more influence of that +PNA--more like the GFS. That is definitely a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think this looks better at 54 hrs. more phasing and sharper west coast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah, we're heading towards a nice phase here at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 the sv nam h5 maps blow, its hard to tell, but it looks like its digging alot more in the sw. The trof is Aligned more sw to ne. yeah they do, makes me wish i should have got the AW monthly.too "cartoonish" for me.. anyhow... through 60, sharper trough, more amplified ridge, not too much slower on the vort...precip also a little further south/southwest... let's see how it progresses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is starting to look better now and more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is starting to look better now and more amplified. this looks to wanna produce big... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Def in same spot as 66 but now phased and looking more amped. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Anyone else really love that western ridge? Def looks sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Much better phase this run at 66 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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